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Topic: B1G Power Rankings Regular Season Complete
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LetsGoPeay · « **Reply #28 on:** November 26, 2018, 03:20:04 PM »

1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Penn State
4. Northwestern
5. Iowa
6. Wisconsin
7. Michigan State
8. Purdue
9. Minnesota
10. Maryland
11. Nebraska
12. Indiana
13. Illinois
14. Rutgers

FearlessF · « **Reply #29 on:** November 26, 2018, 07:46:17 PM »

Quote from: Benthere2 on November 26, 2018, 03:02:38 PM

I wish the Gophers had another crack at all the games prior to the DC getting fired things were a lot different with the same players after he was let go

never fear fellas
we'll all get another crack starting next September
only one crack per season

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #30 on:** November 26, 2018, 09:08:29 PM »

Assessing the top-3 based on common opponents and H2H:

H2H: Ohio State is much better than Michigan, Michigan slightly better than Northwestern.
vs Penn State: Michigan is much better than Ohio State.
vs Wisconsin: Michigan is much better than Northwestern.
vs Michigan State: Ohio State, then Michigan, then Northwestern.
vs Purdue: Northwestern is much better than Ohio State.
vs Nebraska: Michigan is much better than Ohio State, Ohio State slightly better than Northwestern.
vs Maryland: Michigan is much better than Ohio State.
vs Minnesota: Ohio State is slightly better than Northwestern (might be a wash with HFA).
vs Indiana: Ohio State is better than Michigan.
vs Rutgers: Ohio State is slightly better than Michigan, Michigan much better than Northwestern.

Northwestern loses every comparison except Purdue. I think they are a distant third at best. Even if they win the CG they'll still be no better than third in my rankings because they can't make up that much ground in one game.

Comparing just the Buckeyes and Wolverines for the top two spots:

Ohio State has a big advantage in the H2H and smaller advantages in the games against MSU, IU, and RU.
Michigan has big advantages in the games against Penn State, Nebraska, and Maryland.

I honestly see Ohio State/Michigan as being very close. It obviously didn't look like it on Saturday but I don't like relying too much on just one game. If we relied only on Ohio State's game against Purdue the Buckeyes would be ranked somewhere around #12.

Ohio State has more advantages (4>3) but other than the H2H they are close where Michigan's three advantages are humongous (34 points better against PSU, 41 points better against UNL, 21 points better against UMD).

Last week, in a different thread, I said that I would still rank Michigan #1 this week even if Ohio State won THE GAME. I'm still leaning that way, but I honestly didn't see THAT big of a win for Ohio State as a plausible possibility.

Ohio State showed a ceiling on Saturday that none of us knew they had. That ceiling is clearly higher than anything that any other B1G team has shown. That doesn't mean that the Buckeyes have consistently played like #1 (they haven't) or even that they have the highest floor (IMHO, they don't).

LittlePig · « **Reply #31 on:** November 27, 2018, 07:53:23 AM »

Quote from: ELA on November 26, 2018, 02:43:00 PM

I think it's pretty clear that the East is more top heavy, but the West is far deeper. Which one is "tougher" depends on what kind of team you are. If you are a CFP contender type, you'd rather be in the West, where there are no other teams that should be at your level; if you are a team just trying to get bowl eligible, it's probably easier in the East, where you get more "should win" type games.

Of course, OSU has found out the last 2 years that those middle teams can trip up your chances at the CFP.

TyphonInc · « **Reply #32 on:** November 27, 2018, 08:56:02 AM »

OHIO STATE (+1) - Well color me impressed, beat Northwestern and it's on to Pasadena, the B1G champ vs. the Pac 12 champ in the Rose, all is as it should be.
MICHIGAN (-1) - if OSU can get ranked #1 with an embarrassing loss, M can be 2, with an embarrassing loss to a better team.
PENN STATE (+1) - I think all 3 giants in the East would be favored over the West Champion
NORTHWESTERN (+3) - Wow, these guys have turned it on in Conference, and just don't lose this week for an amazing year.
IOWA (--) - I respect a team that can keep it close.
MICHIGAN STATE (-4)- Is this defense now the Best in the B1G?
WISCONSIN (-1) - Injuries, injuries, and lost the Axe
PURDUE (-1) - Let's go Bowling
MARYLAND (--) - Snake Bit
MINNESOTA (+3) - Watching those kids run with a 6 foot Axe was kinda scary.
NEBRASKA (-1) - Hoping this team rebounds next year
INDIANA (--) - Basketball Season
ILLINOIS (-1) - at least they have Lovie's Beard
RUTGERS (--) - they might win a game in the MAC

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #33 on:** November 27, 2018, 10:55:03 AM »

The 3rd/4th debate seems to be mostly between NU and PSU so here are their performances against common opponents:

vs M: PSU lost by 35, NU lost by 3: Big advantage NU
vs tOSU: PSU lost by 1, NU TBD: TBD
vs UW: NU won by 14, PSU won by 12: Advantage NU
vs Iowa: NU won by 4, PSU won by 6: Advantage PSU
vs MSU: NU won by 10, PSU lost by 4: Advantate NU
vs ILL: NU won by 8, PSU won by 39: Big advantage PSU
vs RU: NU won by 3, PSU won by 13: Advantage PSU

Prior to doing this comparison I was planning to vote PSU #3 but I can't see it. Maybe if Ohio State blows out NU in the B1GCG to give PSU a big advantage in the vs tOSU comparison but not now.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #34 on:** November 27, 2018, 11:11:31 AM »

It seems like every team has at least one uncharacteristically good and one uncharacteristically bad game so I am going to try ranking the teams based on their other seven games:

Michigan: Drop the tOSU loss and the UNL win and you are left with a solid 7-0 team.
Ohio State: Drop the PU loss and the M win and you are left with a less solid 7-0 team.
Northwestern: Drop the RU win (NU's worst game) and the M loss (NU's best game) and you are left with an even less solid 7-0 team.
Penn State: Drop the M loss and the tOSU loss and you are left with a solid 6-1 team.
Purdue: Drop the MN loss and the tOSU win and you are left with a solid 4-3 team.
Wisconsin: Drop the MN loss and the Iowa win and you are left with a 4-3 team.
Iowa: Drop the UW loss and the MD win and you are left with a 4-3 team that still has no wins over B1G bowl teams.
Nebraska: Drop the Iowa loss (not worst, but worst recent loss), and the MSU win and you are left with a 2-5 team that is trending the right direction.
Minnesota: Drop the IL loss and the PU win and you still have the UW win and a 2-5 team.
Michigan State: This is more about trend than dropping the high and low. MSU's offense would be lucky to score 20 points against 10 other posters and I right now.
Maryland: Drop the IU loss and the tOSU loss (best game) and you are left with a 3-4 team that beat everyone they were supposed to beat.
Indiana: Drop the MN loss and the MD win and you are left with a 1-6 team.
Illinois: Dropping their best win (blowout of MN) hurts a LOT more than dropping their worst loss helps.
Rutgers: No matter how many games you drop they are still terrible.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #35 on:** November 27, 2018, 11:20:45 AM »

Quote from: LittlePig on November 24, 2018, 10:19:01 PM

I believe NW is suffering from the same problem PSU had in 2016. Voters were late to recognize a shift that had occured in the middle of the season and teams that were not good early got better during the season.

I'll be a lot more convinced by this if the Wildcats win the B1GCG. I acknowledge that they are 7-1 since starting 1-3 and that LOOKS like a team that got better. I'm not convinced because:

NU's win in game #1 against PU was a pretty good win.
NU's eight point win over the second worst team in the B1G this week was a VERY weak showing for a team being in the top-3 and it is flat out pathetic for a team ranked #1 as you have the Wildcats.
NU's three point win over RU was in game #7. That win is, IMHO, worse than any loss to any other B1G team.
NU's 10 point win over MN in the penultimate week of the regular season was a pretty weak showing (looks better after MN's win over UW).

I see a definitive shift, for example, with Nebraska:

0-5 in first five games with non-competitive losses to good teams and losses to bad teams.
4-3 in last seven games with blowout wins over bad teams, a win over a decent MSU, and competitive losses to NU, tOSU, and IA.

I don't see that kind of definitive shift wrt NU. Maybe it is there, but I'll have to see it proven in Indy.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #36 on:** November 27, 2018, 12:53:29 PM »

Results posted, votes through me (15 voters).
Some much movement this week:

Ohio State was up one, passing Michigan.
Michigan was down one, passed by Ohio State.
Iowa was up one, passing Wisconsin.
Wisconsin was down 1.5, passed by Iowa and tied by Purdue.
Purdue was up 1.5, passing MSU and tying Wisconsin.
Michigan State was down one, passed by Purdue.
Minnesota was up one, passing Maryland.
Maryland was down one, passed by Minnesota.

Non-contiguous votes:

HailHailMSP had UW #11, nobody else had them lower than ninth.

If you look at the Schedule/Performance chart, these are all of the losses by higher ranked teams:

#1 Ohio State lost at #6/7 Purdue by 29.
#4 Penn State lost at home to #8 MSU by 4.
#5 Iowa lost at #6/7 Purdue by two.
#5 Iowa lost at home to #6/7 Wisconsin by 11.
#6/7 Purdue lost at home to #6/7 Wisconsin in OT.
#6/7 Purdue lost at #8 MSU by 10.
#6/7 Wisconsin lost at home to #10 Minnesota by 22.
#8 Michigan State lost at #9 Nebraska by three.
#10 Minnesota lost at #11 Maryland by 29.
#10 Minnesota lost at #13 Illinois by 24.
#11 Maryland lost at #12 Indiana by two.

The number of "upsets" is not surprising but what is surprising is that a lot of them were decisive.

ELA · « **Reply #37 on:** November 30, 2018, 09:17:22 AM »

Massey composite rankings (104 rankings), with last week in parenthesis...

Alabama (1)
Clemson (2)
Georgia (3)
Notre Dame (4)
Oklahoma (6)
OHIO STATE (7)
MICHIGAN (5)
Central Florida (9)
LSU (8)
PENN STATE (12)
Florida (15)
Washington State (10)
Mississippi State (13)
Missouri (16)
Washington (20)
Kentucky (19)
Texas A&M (18)
Utah (14)
West Virginia (11)
Boise State (22)
Texas (17)
Fresno State (21)
Syracuse (-)
IOWA (23)
Auburn (25)

33. Northwestern (26)
35. Michigan State (35)
40. Purdue (46)
46. Wisconsin (38)
59. Minnesota (74)
68. Maryland (60)
71. Indiana (63)
77. Nebraska (76)
102. Illinois (102)
117. Rutgers (117)

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Topic: B1G Power Rankings Regular Season Complete

LetsGoPeay

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FearlessF

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medinabuckeye1

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LittlePig

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TyphonInc

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medinabuckeye1

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medinabuckeye1

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medinabuckeye1

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medinabuckeye1

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ELA

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