been reading/watching a lot of breakdowns on this game. Not making any predictions, but I think it'll be a battle and basically a toss-up, straight up pick 'em. I do think it's going to be very close, like 2-4 points.
Georgia is a great team, but 5 reasons why I think Michigan can win;
1)
Stetson Bennett vs the Michigan edge rushers and pass defense. I think this is advantage Michigan. Stetson Bennett has been very bad when pressured- as all QB's are, but his QB rating vs
MUG pressure looks was literally worst in P5 according to PFF. Bennett's record and stats vs Top 10 teams are also pretty bad. His stats/record is vs Top 10 ranked teams:
W-L: 2-3
Comp %: 52.9%
YPA: 6.9
TD-INT: 7-6
Fair or unfair, he's going to have weight of the world on his shoulders this game and he's got to prove he can win a big game vs a top 10 team and play at a high level. And he's going to have to come through if Georgia is to win. I think both QB's will have to really show up if they want to lead their team to a victory. Not dominate the game or anything- but obviously need better completion % and TD-to-INT ratio than the above. Need to take the opportunities when they are there, make accurate throws and not make the big mistake and take sacks and turnovers.
2)
Explosive plays. Michigan leads the nation on offense in plays of 50 yards or more with 17. They also lead the nation of plays of 60 yards or more, and are tied for first place with plays of 70 yards or more. They've been creating explosive plays in all different ways, against everyone they've played. When you do that time and time and time again, to me that says it's just part of your offense. Gattis has done some very creative things with misdirection, trickery, and window dressing to create space, get guys loose, and hit big plays. And Michigan has tons of speed at WR and RB. Maybe even more than Georgia. AJ Henning and Roman Wilson at WR are speed demons. Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards are legitimately way faster than any RB that Georgia has. White and Cook just don't have the gear Corum & Edwards have. Wilson, Henning, Corum, or Edwards get creases in space, they can house it. These are all legit 4.3/4.4 guys. And then their lead WR Cornelius Johnson who is 6'3, 210+ is one of those big guys that is
a lot faster than he looks. And then rotation guys Mike Sainistril and Andrel Anthony have both had moments and games where they were the go to guys. It's a deep than expected unit, with some very fast guys.
3)
Special Teams. They have maybe the best all-around special teams unit in the nation. They have been just awesome this year. No other way to put it. Their kicker and punter are excellent. Their return game is excellent. Their coverage teams are excellent. Their punt block unit is excellent. They very well may have the best special teams in the nation. It's way up there.
4)
JJ McCarthy wrinkles. People
mistakenly view him as just a runner apparently. That he is not. He's a pocket QB that
can run. He's thrown almost twice as many passes as he's had runs this year and if you rate the 10 best throws of any Michigan QB this year- he's probably got 9 of them. And he's only thrown 42 passes. He is completely different than McNamara and he makes the opposing defenses have to prepare for extra things and provides real "juice" and ability to threaten the entire field with his arm and call run plays with his legs, and gives the other team something different to have to prepare for. He could be a legitimate X-factor in this game if they give him enough snaps and call the right plays for him. He reads the end on that zone read option excellently and he has the wheels to turn the corner and gain 5-10-15-20 yards. He consistently has made the correct reads whenever they've run this stuff with him- although it's been rare- only about 20 of those type of designed plays through 13 games- his other 3 runs were scrambles. McCarthy has only about 65 offensive touches (42 passes, 23 rushes) but he's scored 6 TD's (4 passing, 2 rushing) and all four of his TD passes were pretty god damn impressive throws. His arm is definitely ridiculous. NEED TO SEE MORE OF IT. Just the little wrinkle he adds that the defense has to account for and adjust to- and his raw talent and ability to provide a spark or big play- could be a real X-Factor in this game.
5)
Momentum. Michigan really just caught fire the last 4-5 weeks of the season after that MSU loss. They just got hot. And that's when you want to get hot- in November. They rebounded after a disastrous loss to MSU after they completely collapsed on the road up 16 by physically man-handling a crappy Indiana team. Previous Michigan teams might've wet the bed and went into the tank after a demoralizing loss like that where they basically blew a double digit lead in the 4th. They responded with physicality and aggression on both lines of scrimmage. Can't tell you how many times I've seen Michigan play lazy and down to competition- see Rutgers towards start of the year. Following week after bouncing back from horrible MSU loss by taking care of their business vs Indiana, Ojabo & Hutchinson physically just man-handled Penn State up front. They wrecked that offensive line. Clifford was making magic happen, and if he wasn't as mobile as he is- he might've been killed that day. And Michigan didn't blow a game late in the 4th QTR on the road. They made huge plays late in the 4th down the stretch to win vs a very physical Penn State defense on the road in Happy Valley- which to me is the toughest place to play in the conference. Happy Valley is not a fun place to have to play at, at all. Following week they just demolish Maryland on the road. After that they steam-roll Ohio State physically on both lines of scrimmage and win by double digits, and then after slaying their literal dragon, when it could've been very easy to maybe have a hangover and still be drunk on that emotion- they just handled business and absolutely steam-rolled and demolished Iowa in the B1G CCG. Which- everyone thought they'd probably beat Iowa- considering Iowa's offense is atrocious- but Iowa plays top notch defense and they play top notch special teams- and they just got steam rolled. If that team is still in that mind-set, still playing hungry and with a chip on their shoulder and for each other- that can be a dangerous team- when a team just gets hot at the very end of the season the last 4-5 weeks and it all just comes together for them.
