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I prefer the balance on number of yards instead of number of plays

And this is where I say the analytics/metrics are wrong. Because it's not about "more passing" or about getting A first down. It's about sustaining drives.

The problem is this. Take two teams, one that has a competent rushing and passing offense, facing another that has a competent rushing and passing defense.

• If the offense passes on first and second down, they're more likely to convert a first down in those two plays than if they ran on first and second down.
• If the offense passes on first and second down, they're more likely to end up in 3rd and 10 after those two plays than if they ran on first and second down. Especially since they're probably sitting and 2nd and 10 after the first [incomplete] pass, causing the defense to change the way they defend because 2nd and 10 is more of a "passing down" than 2nd and 6.

If you only look at the former, it suggests passing is optimal. Because if you're looking purely at "success rate" being tied to getting a first down, passing looks good. But if you're 80 yards from the opposing end zone and you need multiple first downs to score a TD, you need to avoid those 3rd and 10 situations too. 

But you need to force the defense into those two deep shell coverages to be able to run effectively. It's about the threat of the pass making the offense more effective overall by forcing the defense to respect it. And you have to pass often enough--and effectively enough--to do that.

On first and 10, a "neutral" game script situation, I think there's more desire to pass often enough that the defense needs to be on their heels. I'm not sure what that number is as a percentage for any given team--and it may be the answer is "more often than almost every team does". But I don't think we should extrapolate that to believe the metrics point to passing more in every spot, at least if you're looking at things like success rate or average yards per play. Because it's about sustaining drives, and passing has higher variability to go along with those higher averages. Variability is more likely to stall your drive IMHO.

I mean, this feels like it boils down passing too much? Like, there's a mess of ways to pass, and honestly a mess of ways to run. We boil them down a lot in part because we lack a high level of expertise and because it's easier to process a lot of data that way. 

I more referenced it because I'm talking about the way people feel vs. the mechanics of the game. 

I said the metrics pointed to that because I read some of the metrics folks who suggested as such. I don't have a strong preferential that teams should throw more. Pick what you want to do, do it well, rinse and repeat. 

I think a smart coach could device plans with punt teams, FG teams, and regular offensive formations to go for it on many 4th downs.
Especially 4th and short (less than 4 yards)

I mean, this feels like it boils down passing too much? Like, there's a mess of ways to pass, and honestly a mess of ways to run. We boil them down a lot in part because we lack a high level of expertise and because it's easier to process a lot of data that way.

I more referenced it because I'm talking about the way people feel vs. the mechanics of the game.

I said the metrics pointed to that because I read some of the metrics folks who suggested as such. I don't have a strong preferential that teams should throw more. Pick what you want to do, do it well, rinse and repeat.

I wasn't trying to suggest teams are passing too much. 

IMHO it's not about any specific ratio. It's about forcing defenses to defend horizontally and vertically.

The defense's advantages are numbers--there's always 1 more tackler than blocker, and 2 if the QB isn't a run threat--and angles--you have to go around them to gain yards and distances are shorter for them to cut you off. 

The way to beat that is to force the defense to defend as much space as possible. That's hard to do running the football. It doesn't matter how good you are running; you're not going to sustain a lot of drives running into 9 man boxes because that's the only area the defense has to cover. 

If you're like the old-school Wisconsin, a power running team, you need to be able to get the defense wide with things like swing passes horizontally and push the safeties back with playaction throws vertically. You run [successfully] to set up the pass which pushes the defense off allowing you to continue to do what you want: run. For teams like Tiller's Purdue teams or any of the Air Raid teams, you do the opposite. You spread the defense formationally and you threaten to throw the ball deep (i.e. Air Raid / 4 verts) to take defenders out of the box allow you chances to hit bigger running plays than you normally could. 

Where I think the metrics get it wrong is that the metrics look at individual play probabilities, and not at the holistic concept of playcalling being about making a defense defend the entire field. 

It's simple. If you run too much on first down, defenses will work to take that away by loading the box. If you pass too much on first down, defenses will be more inclined to blitz and have their pass rushers pin their ears back to pressure the QB. So if you're sub-optimal running too often, you don't pass more on first down "because the metrics say so", you pass more on first down to make the defense respect that you're willing and able do it. 

Also in my research, I found that down-and-distance matters very little in the first 3 quarters of a game.  Passing teams are going to pass and running teams are going to run.  

I remain impressed that the OC can call a play get it sent in and called by the QB in the time allowed.  I know they generally have 3-4-5 options called a play ahead of time depending on what happens, but it's still impressive, to me.

I'd be interested in seeing which kind of play is called to start the game in competitive games where OCs have laid out 3-4-5-6 plays in advance.  My GUESS is 80% of the first play is a run.

So, do defenses hedge that way to start a game?  I'd guess they lean forward.