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Topic: Optimal First Down Run/Pass Balance

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FearlessF

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Re: Optimal First Down Run/Pass Balance
« Reply #14 on: September 16, 2025, 08:46:27 PM »
I prefer the balance on number of yards instead of number of plays
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Optimal First Down Run/Pass Balance
« Reply #15 on: September 16, 2025, 09:10:51 PM »
I think that's a little bit reductionist. Some teams are just built around the pass. Mike Leach's TTU teams, Joe Tiller's Purdue teams, June Jones' Hawaii teams, etc. Those teams weren't "always behind". Sometimes they were behind against the best teams (because they weren't power teams), but they were still throwing it around against lesser competition because that was their identity.

Your percentages might be viable for helmet teams in CFB, who can just out-muscle lesser opponents. But in the NFL where there is parity, in 2024 there were only 3 teams out of 32 in 2024 who were below 50% passing plays. (Admittedly the Super Bowl champ was #32 of 32.)
Those pass-heavy college teams were extreme outliers.  My point stands for the middle 95% of teams, trust me.

I have no knowledge or interest in NFL.  But my knowledge concerns numerous decades of college, where the passing % is way up.  I have no doubt a modern, 1-year data set is far different from my reporting.  
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bayareabadger

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Re: Optimal First Down Run/Pass Balance
« Reply #16 on: September 16, 2025, 10:03:23 PM »
And this is where I say the analytics/metrics are wrong. Because it's not about "more passing" or about getting A first down. It's about sustaining drives.

The problem is this. Take two teams, one that has a competent rushing and passing offense, facing another that has a competent rushing and passing defense.

  • If the offense passes on first and second down, they're more likely to convert a first down in those two plays than if they ran on first and second down.
  • If the offense passes on first and second down, they're more likely to end up in 3rd and 10 after those two plays than if they ran on first and second down. Especially since they're probably sitting and 2nd and 10 after the first [incomplete] pass, causing the defense to change the way they defend because 2nd and 10 is more of a "passing down" than 2nd and 6.

If you only look at the former, it suggests passing is optimal. Because if you're looking purely at "success rate" being tied to getting a first down, passing looks good. But if you're 80 yards from the opposing end zone and you need multiple first downs to score a TD, you need to avoid those 3rd and 10 situations too. 

But you need to force the defense into those two deep shell coverages to be able to run effectively. It's about the threat of the pass making the offense more effective overall by forcing the defense to respect it. And you have to pass often enough--and effectively enough--to do that.

On first and 10, a "neutral" game script situation, I think there's more desire to pass often enough that the defense needs to be on their heels. I'm not sure what that number is as a percentage for any given team--and it may be the answer is "more often than almost every team does". But I don't think we should extrapolate that to believe the metrics point to passing more in every spot, at least if you're looking at things like success rate or average yards per play. Because it's about sustaining drives, and passing has higher variability to go along with those higher averages. Variability is more likely to stall your drive IMHO.
I mean, this feels like it boils down passing too much? Like, there's a mess of ways to pass, and honestly a mess of ways to run. We boil them down a lot in part because we lack a high level of expertise and because it's easier to process a lot of data that way. 

I more referenced it because I'm talking about the way people feel vs. the mechanics of the game. 

I said the metrics pointed to that because I read some of the metrics folks who suggested as such. I don't have a strong preferential that teams should throw more. Pick what you want to do, do it well, rinse and repeat. 

 

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