2025 Big Ten win totals: Projecting the finish for every B1G team
By Paul Harvey
The question then becomes: Which teams are bound to surpass their win totals this fall, and who is bound to underwhelm? That’s what we’ll seek to answer here with a quick look at every win total for teams throughout the B1G.
2025 Big Ten win totals
Here are some of the top win totals to consider this season (all win totals via FanDuel):
Illinois: 7.5 wins
Multiple analysts keep trying to paint Illinois as “this year’s Indiana.” Considering that Illinois is going to be a ranked program (possibly a top-15 team) when the season begins, I think we can drop that label.
The one way the comparison does work is in the schedule that Illinois gets in 2025. The Illini do have to travel to Duke in the nonconference slate, but the rest of the early-season schedule features very winnable games.
Illinois, historically, is the kind of team that could deliver an untimely clunker, but it’s time to truly believe in what Bret Bielema has put together. An experienced team with an experienced starter should give the Illini a leg up in many close games this fall.
Pick: Over 7.5 wins
Indiana: 8.5 wins
Curt Cignetti crashed the Big Ten party with all the gusto he could muster. It paid off with the Hoosiers rolling to an 11-win season and College Football Playoff appearance.
The big question on everyone’s mind this year is: Can Cignetti do it again? I cautiously lean toward the negative, though that’s more about the benefit Indiana had in its schedule last year than the doubt I have for Cignetti.
Last year’s schedule provided a great early-season runway for the program and some key matchups at home. This year, the schedule changes drastically with the first 3 B1G games against teams who posted a winning record in 2024, including road trips to Iowa City and Eugene.
The Hoosiers did find a fantastic portal quarterback in Fernando Mendoza to replace Kurtis Rourke, but I still have it as a toss-up that they will reach 9+ wins in the regular season. The longer I look at the schedule, I keep coming back to 8 wins for Indiana.
Pick: Under 8.5 wins
Iowa: 7.5 wins
For some programs, it’s more about history than looking at the schedule. In the past 10 seasons, the Hawkeyes have won 8+ regular-season games 7 times, and one of the years they didn’t was the COVID season, when they went 6-2 in 8 games played. The schedule is tough because the era of “easy” schedules in the B1G is gone, but it’s certainly not brutal.
Pick: Over 7.5 wins
Maryland: 4.5 wins
I like what Mike Locksley has done, but it’s hard for me to reconcile the kind of massive turnover the Terps had on their roster this offseason. Maryland still looking for its future at QB with an inexperienced room is also a major red flag, and I’m not sure the Terps will be favored in any of their conference games this season.
Pick: Under 4.5 wins
Michigan: 8.5 wins
The easy pick for Michigan is saying the team will be better than last year’s squad, and that team won 7 games in the regular season. But that isn’t as clear-cut as some might expect.
The defense should be solid, and it’s unlikely the unit will regress to becoming a bad unit. However, there are some major losses from that side of the ball to the NFL that give at least a bit of concern.
Offensively, all eyes are on star freshman QB Bryce Underwood, and that’s another area of some concern. He might be fireworks from the opening kickoff, but most true freshmen under center have their share of costly miscues.
If there were one bold prediction to make, it would be that I think the Wolverines drop their Big Ten opener (at Nebraska). A nonconference trip to face Oklahoma is also a major test for the program.
The schedule could be tougher, but simply having a true freshman QB and multiple new faces has me going under 9 wins in the regular season.
Pick: Under 8.5 wins
Michigan State: 5.5 wins
Michigan State might have the toughest road schedule in the entire conference this season. The combined 2024 record for every road opponent on the schedule for the Spartans is 41-24, and MSU will also host Michigan and Penn State this fall. For the sake of Jonathan Smith, the Spartans need to find a way to get above the 5.5 number, but it will be tough given that schedule.
Pick: Under 5.5 wins
Minnesota: 6.5 wins
The QB situation gives me some level of concern for the Golden Gophers. However, PJ Fleck has hit that 7-win plateau in the regular season 4 times since 2019. The schedule also features some solid ebbs and flows, so it sets up nicely for another strong bowl trip for Minnesota.
Pick: Over 6.5 wins
Nebraska: 7.5 wins
Nebraska got the bowl-game monkey off its back last season. That should provide some relief for Matt Rhule entering 2025, and I think it also frees up some pressure on Dylan Raiola a bit.
The bigger key here is that Raiola gets a full offseason working with Dana Holgorsen heading into the fall. There were some offensive flashes late in the season, and if Nebraska can score consistently, the wins should come in fairly large bunches.
I let it slip earlier that I think Nebraska beats Michigan early in the year. That will be just the tip of the iceberg in Lincoln.
There’s no need for me to predict anything higher since the total is set at 7.5, but I feel confident going with an 8-win regular season for the Huskers.
Pick: Over 7.5 wins
Northwestern: 3.5 wins
Northwestern has been mostly forgettable since David Braun‘s debut in 2023. It’s hard to expect some major bounce back this fall, especially with a tough B1G schedule and a nonconference road trip to Tulane that will not be a gimme.
Pick: Under 3.5 wins
Ohio State: 10.5 wins
I’m not trying to rain on Ohio State‘s parade, but if we’re talking regular-season wins, the Buckeyes would have been below the 10.5 wins in 2024. So, let’s be clear on something before we dive into my pick.
If forced to predict in May, I would lean toward taking the Buckeyes outright in the Big Ten. That’s not exactly going out on a limb, but the talent in place is still elite, even after some massive losses to the NFL.
Now, looking at the schedule for next season, it’s tough for me to get a true feel for the Buckeyes at this juncture. If they beat Texas in the season opener, they should probably be above the 10.5 wins.
Then again, we know Ryan Day has a serious aversion to beating Michigan recently, and a first-year starter at QB can lose you a game or two you might otherwise win. I feel safer going with Ohio State at 10 wins, and that should still have the Buckeyes safely in the picture to compete for the B1G Championship and national title.
Pick: Under 10.5 wins
Oregon: 10.5 wins
Oregon has the same issue that Ohio State has when it comes to replacing a starting QB, but it feels like many people are overlooking Dante Moore’s early experience at UCLA and an extra year of prep behind Dillon Gabriel. The Ducks also picked up an elite transfer portal class, so reinforcements to a strong group of NFL-bound players are coming.
The schedule is also a great one for Dan Lanning and his group. They do have to travel to face Penn State, Oregon’s toughest game of the season, but the other trips to the east consist of Northwestern, Rutgers and Iowa. They also get nonconference games against Oklahoma State and Oregon State at home.
At this juncture, it’s hard to pick against Oregon returning to Indianapolis with a shot to defend its B1G title.
Pick: Over 10.5 wins
Penn State: 10 wins
Will Penn State be the preseason No. 1? I doubt it (at least in the AP Poll), but the Nittany Lions are likely to be a top 5 program in the majority of preseason polls.
On paper, it has been pretty easy to track Penn State’s success since the start of the 2022 season. The Nittany Lions have essentially won every game they were supposed to under James Franklin, but struggled to break through as an underdog.
That means the pick for me comes down to 2 games this fall: Getting Oregon at home, and facing Ohio State on the road. Once again, a 10-win Penn State team probably gets back into the Playoff, but it feels like they should be at 11 wins in the regular season after last year’s run to the semifinals.
Pick: Over 10 wins
Purdue: 3.5 wins
Purdue has at least moved on from Ryan Walters, but Barry Odom is orchestrating a massive overhaul this season. Combine that with the fact that the Boilermakers get Notre Dame in the nonconference portion of the schedule, and they will need multiple upsets even to crack 4 wins this fall.
Pick: Under 3.5 wins
Rutgers: 5.5 wins
Rutgers is coming off back-to-back bowl games for the first time in a decade, though the steps back for the defense this past season were worrisome. In the old-look B1G, I would feel a bit better taking the Scarlet Knights to get that 6-win line. But considering they now have a West Coast trip every year (and get to face Oregon at home), I am a bit sour on that projection this year.
Pick: Under 5.5 wins
UCLA: 5.5 wins
UCLA was 5-7 in DeShaun Foster‘s first season with the program. And while Nico Iamaleava is an upgrade for the program, I don’t think his arrival moves the needle much for the overall trajectory of the Bruins. Another 5-7 season feels right in line with what to expect, though a key upset could get UCLA to a bowl game.
Pick: Under 5.5 wins
USC: 7.5 wins
Make no mistake: USC is building something special under Lincoln Riley, even if the major breakthrough is a year or two down the road. As it pertains to 2025, the Trojans have a manageable nonconference schedule, save for the road trip to Notre Dame, and none of the B1G trips east are super daunting.
Road games against Illinois and Nebraska are not a given, but things could certainly be worse. The home schedule with matchups against Michigan State, Michigan, Northwestern and Iowa should also yield some momentum for the program.
The Trojans have some wiggle room to get to 8 wins, in my opinion, and they could turn out to be even better.
Pick: Over 7.5 wins
Washington: 7.5 wins
Washington had some severe home-road splits in the first season for Jedd Fisch. A number of factors undoubtedly went into that, including a first-year coach and the transition into the B1G.
The Huskies have some good news on the schedule this year, with some manageable road games. I also think the offense can be dynamic this fall with Demond Williams Jr. and Jonah Coleman leading the way.
The concern will be the defense, and I think it keeps Washington around the 7-win mark. Overall, that’s not a big problem in a building block year for the program.
Pick: Under 7.5 wins
Wisconsin: 5.5 wins
My gut reaction is that Wisconsin better be over 5.5 wins this fall. If Luke Fickell wants to keep his job, that is.
Then, you look at the schedule, and… it’s hard to feel confident in much for the Badgers this fall. The West Coast trip involves facing Oregon, likely one of the top teams in the country, and Wisconsin also has to head to Tuscaloosa to face Alabama.
The Badgers also get the unfortunate distinction of drawing Ohio State, Michigan and Illinois this season, along with the regular rivalry vs. Iowa.
Ultimately, I’m going with Wisconsin to get over the 5.5 wins number because I do think the team is a bit better than last year. There should also be some legitimate pressure on Fickell to buck recent trends.
Pick: Over 5.5 wins
Paul Harvey --- is a lifelong fan and student of all things college football. He has been covering college football since 2017 and the B1G since 2018.
