Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan - my first what-if tiebreaker thread of 2018

[MrNubbz]

De-Narduzzi-ized that sounds like it would put one at a decided disadvantage or maybe just De-Narduzzied.

[Temp430]

My heads gonna explode

[ELA]

I think their pass defense will keep them out of that discussion. They have the #123rd ranked pass defense in the country. There are 129 teams.

Well, #123 in raw yardage, which just means teams throw on them a lot, which makes sense when you have the #1 run defense both on per game AND per play basis.
Yards per attempt is not great, but it's #75, which is at least a lot better, and their defensive passing rating allowed is even better, #61.  That slots them one spot behind Wisconsin (#60) and 2 spots ahead of Iowa (#63).
S&P+ overall ranks their defense #20.  The defense is far from the problem.

[bayareabadger]

De-Narduzzi-ized that sounds like it would put one at a decided disadvantage or maybe just De-Narduzzied.

Sort of. A Narduzzi defense has a mildly higher ceiling, much lower floor, in theory. But you can get the kind of defense they’re running now toward a pretty decent ceiling. 

[bayareabadger]

Well, #123 in raw yardage, which just means teams throw on them a lot, which makes sense when you have the #1 run defense both on per game AND per play basis.
Yards per attempt is not great, but it's #75, which is at least a lot better, and their defensive passing rating allowed is even better, #61.  That slots them one spot behind Wisconsin (#60) and 2 spots ahead of Iowa (#63).
S&P+ overall ranks their defense #20.  The defense is far from the problem.

Also worth remembering and adding to what you said, two thirds of MSU’s schedule is P5 teams, And the third has the No. 16 passer in the country in yards. 
Basically, it’s still early, and some stats are a little uneven, especially the raw total numbers 

[Anonymous Coward]

Well, #123 in raw yardage, which just means teams throw on them a lot, which makes sense when you have the #1 run defense both on per game AND per play basis.
Yards per attempt is not great, but it's #75, which is at least a lot better, and their defensive passing rating allowed is even better, #61.  That slots them one spot behind Wisconsin (#60) and 2 spots ahead of Iowa (#63).
S&P+ overall ranks their defense #20.  The defense is far from the problem.

The defense is definitely not capital The Problem, but in the past with Narduzzi as DC, MSU could better survive a terrible OL by making all yardage and scoring outrageously hard. An OL like this can't be counterbalanced by a pretty good defense.

[medinabuckeye1]

Haha, that's just mean. Less to the teams than to medina. That's like 1000 words you just asked for on a whim, and there's no going back now, like in South Park whenever Cartman hears the first few words of Come Sail Away. The remainder is inevitable.

What he said.  
Seriously, Indiana already has a conference loss so they couldn't end up in a three-way 8-1 tie with MSU and UMD anyway.  I like doing hypotheticals of things that might happen but that is too far out there.  In a few weeks or whatever if it is appropriate to look at different teams, I'll do that then.  

[Brutus Buckeye]

Indiana's loss was to MSU, so they could still wind up in a three way tie with Maryland, whereby each of the three go 8-1 in the Big Ten and 1-1 against each other.

But I don't blame you for not spending any time on that one.

[medinabuckeye1]

Why not add Michigan State to this discussion?

A few reasons:
First, I think that tOSU, PSU, and M all going 8-1 is not ridiculously implausible.  I surely wouldn't bet on it, but it could happen.  In the games among them, they each host one and travel for one.  Also, none of them travel to #4 (your team) or #6 (IA) and only two (tOSU and M) travel to #5 (MSU).  Consequently there aren't ANY ridiculously unlikely results that would be needed for this to happen.  As I said, I wouldn't bet on it but that is because the cumulative chance of all of this happening is very low.  The individual chances of each of the necessary results happening are all at least in the neighborhood of 50/50 or better (mostly MUCH better).  
Second, frankly that doesn't make for a very interesting or complex result.  If we assume that the top five (tOSU, PSU, M, UW, and MSU) all win the home games among themselves and beat everyone else then here are the projected final Standings:
B1G-W:

• 7-2 Wisconsin (losses at PSU and M)
• Every other team would have at least two losses including a loss to UW so UW goes to Indy.  

B1G-E:

• 8-1 Penn State (loss at Michigan)
• 8-1 MSU (loss at PSU)
• 7-2 Ohio State (losses at PSU and MSU)
• 7-2 Michigan (losses at tOSU and MSU)

Penn State wins the tiebreaker by virtue of their home H2H win over Michigan State.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Indiana's loss was to MSU, so they could still wind up in a three way tie with Maryland, whereby each of the three go 8-1 in the Big Ten and 1-1 against each other.

But I don't blame you for not spending any time on that one.

It was also a home loss.  You are right, it could but until I see enough from those teams to make me think it is plausible, I'm not running that scenario.  
One of the reasons is that in any 8-1 three-way tie it will automatically come down to tiebreaker #5 because #1-4 will automatically be tied.  So that is the answer, whoever had the better B1G-W opponents wins.  When I looked at tOSU/PSU/M I assumed some things about those B1G-W opponents which is why I said that there was "no plausible way for tOSU to win this three-way tie".  However, if we are doing ridiculous hypotheticals where Indiana, Maryland, and Michigan State each go 3-0 against tOSU, M, and PSU then who is to say that there will not be ridiculous happenings out West as well?  Maybe Purdue, Minnesota, and Nebraska will end up better than Wisconsin, Iowa, and Illinois.  

[ELA]

The defense is definitely not capital The Problem, but in the past with Narduzzi as DC, MSU could better survive a terrible OL by making all yardage and scoring outrageously hard. An OL like this can't be counterbalanced by a pretty good defense.

No, but he said MSU is out because of their raw pass defense numbers.  If he had said MSU is out because their OL won't do crap against the UM or OSU defensive fronts, I would have sat silently nodding.

[Anonymous Coward]

Oh I agree. My comment was separate. That, it is at least plausible to - for example - win the Big Ten with an OL like this if the defense is sufficiently filthy. And this one is pretty good, even excellent against the run, but not complete enough to make up for the OL. 

Narduzzi's best defense might have been, though.

[Brutus Buckeye]

Haha, that's just mean. Less to the teams than to medina. That's like 1000 words you just asked for on a whim, and there's no going back now, like in South Park whenever Cartman hears the first few words of Come Sail Away. The remainder is inevitable.