Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan - my first what-if tiebreaker thread of 2018

[medinabuckeye1]

In the current Power Rankings the Buckeyes, Nittany Lions, and Wolverines are ranked #1, #2, and #3.  Looking at the schedule: 

• Ohio State plays at Penn State this weekend.  
• Penn State plays at Michigan on November 3.  
• Michigan plays at Ohio State on November 24.  

So what happens if the home team wins all three of those games and they each win their other eight conference games.  The B1G website lays out the following eight tiebreaking procedures with the stipulation that "(i)f only two teams remain tied after any step (or sub-step), the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative."  

• H2H2H
• Divisional Record
• Record against the next best team(s) in the division, then the next, then the next, etc.  
• Record against all common conference opponents.  
• Best cumulative conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents.  
• Record against the best team(s) in the other division, then the next, then the next, etc.  (Note, that in this case 1-0 is better than 0-0 and 0-0 is better than 0-1)
• Overall winning percentage not including FCS games.  
• Random Draw.  

In this hypothetical:

• tied, 1-1.  
• tied, 5-1.  
• tied, all are 1-0 against each.  
• tied, 4-0 (the three teams do not have any common B1G-W opponents and would each be 4-0 against UMD, MSU, IU, and RU)
• This would most likely be the deciding factor, see below.  
• If not #5, then this would most likely eliminate tOSU leaving it to Michigan as the winner of the PSU/M game or Penn State as the only one of the three to play Iowa.  
• In this scenario this one would eliminate Michigan leaving it to PSU as the winner of the PSU/tOSU game.  
• Who knows.  

#5, best cumulative conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents.  
Ohio State's B1G-W opponents (with ranking in current Power Rankings and current B1G record) are:

• #9 Purdue 0-1
• #10/11 Minnesota 0-1
• #13 Nebraska 0-1

Penn State's B1G-W opponents are:

• #4 Wisconsin 1-0
• #6 Iowa 0-1
• #12 Illinois 0-1

Michigan's B1G-W opponents are:

• #4 Wisconsin 1-0
• #10/11 Northwestern 1-0
• #13 Nebraska 0-1

Currently the standings therefore are:

• 2-1 Michigan's B1G-W opponents
• 1-2 Penn State's B1G-W opponents
• 0-3 Ohio State's B1G-W opponents

Also:

• Ohio State and Michigan have Nebraska in common.  
• Penn State and Michigan have Wisconsin in common.  

In order for Ohio State to win two things would have to happen:

• Purdue and Minnesota would have to have a better combined record than Wisconsin and Northwestern (to get ahead of Michigan), and
• Purdue, Minnesota, and Nebraska would have to have a better combined record than Wisconsin, Iowa, and Illinois (to get ahead of Penn State).  

There is no plausible way for Ohio State to win this potential tie.  

Thus, it would really come down to PSU v Michigan and since they share Wisconsin that one is irrelevant.  It would simply be:

• Iowa and Illinois for PSU vs
• Northwestern and Nebraska for Michigan.  

From the look of things right now that strongly favors Penn State.  

[medinabuckeye1]

What would happen next?

In that scenario Wisconsin (PSU, M), Iowa (UW, PSU), Minnesota (UMD, tOSU) and Michigan (ND, tOSU) would all have at least two losses.  The rest of the B1G-W teams already have at least two losses.  Thus, the B1GCG would be between 11-1 Penn State and a B1G-W team with at least two losses.  Here is where it might get interesting.  

Every team in the B1G would have at least two losses except for two:

• Penn State would be 11-1 and heading to Indy for the B1GCG.  
• Ohio State would be 11-1 with their regular season complete . . .

Ohio State is currently ranked #4 in both polls.  Obviously a loss to Penn State this weekend would drop the Buckeyes somewhat but in this scenario they would then finish on a seven game winning streak capped off by a win over a 10-1 Michigan team that would come into that game on a 10 game winning streak that would include a win over the team that beat Ohio State.  Michigan is already ranked #14/15 and with seven more consecutive wins including over #9 (would be much higher at game-time) PSU, #15 UW, and #21 MSU they would most likely come into Ohio Stadium in the top-4 with Ohio State not far behind.  

What would the rankings be after Ohio State beat Michigan?  Ohio State obviously would not get into the CFP ahead of a 12-1 B1G Champion PSU team that beat them H2H but what if Penn State lost the CG to a B1G-W team with at least two losses?  

[Honestbuckeye]

In the current Power Rankings the Buckeyes, Nittany Lions, and Wolverines are ranked #1, #2, and #3.  Looking at the schedule:

• Ohio State plays at Penn State this weekend.  
• Penn State plays at Michigan on November 3.  
• Michigan plays at Ohio State on November 24.  

So what happens if the home team wins all three of those games and they each win their other eight conference games.  The B1G website lays out the following eight tiebreaking procedures with the stipulation that "(i)f only two teams remain tied after any step (or sub-step), the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative."  

• H2H2H
• Divisional Record
• Record against the next best team(s) in the division, then the next, then the next, etc.  
• Record against all common conference opponents.  
• Best cumulative conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents.  
• Record against the best team(s) in the other division, then the next, then the next, etc.  (Note, that in this case 1-0 is better than 0-0 and 0-0 is better than 0-1)
• Overall winning percentage not including FCS games.  
• Random Draw.  

In this hypothetical:

• tied, 1-1.  
• tied, 5-1.  
• tied, all are 1-0 against each.  
• tied, 4-0 (the three teams do not have any common B1G-W opponents and would each be 4-0 against UMD, MSU, IU, and RU)
• This would most likely be the deciding factor, see below.  
• If not #5, then this would most likely eliminate tOSU leaving it to Michigan as the winner of the PSU/M game or Penn State as the only one of the three to play Iowa.  
• In this scenario this one would eliminate Michigan leaving it to PSU as the winner of the PSU/tOSU game.  
• Who knows.  

#5, best cumulative conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents.  
Ohio State's B1G-W opponents (with ranking in current Power Rankings and current B1G record) are:

• #9 Purdue 0-1
• #10/11 Minnesota 0-1
• #13 Nebraska 0-1

Penn State's B1G-W opponents are:

• #4 Wisconsin 1-0
• #6 Iowa 0-1
• #12 Illinois 0-1

Michigan's B1G-W opponents are:

• #4 Wisconsin 1-0
• #10/11 Northwestern 1-0
• #13 Nebraska 0-1

Currently the standings therefore are:

• 2-1 Michigan's B1G-W opponents
• 1-2 Penn State's B1G-W opponents
• 0-3 Ohio State's B1G-W opponents

Also:

• Ohio State and Michigan have Nebraska in common.  
• Penn State and Michigan have Wisconsin in common.  

In order for Ohio State to win two things would have to happen:

• Purdue and Minnesota would have to have a better combined record than Wisconsin and Northwestern (to get ahead of Michigan), and
• Purdue, Minnesota, and Nebraska would have to have a better combined record than Wisconsin, Iowa, and Illinois (to get ahead of Penn State).  

There is no plausible way for Ohio State to win this potential tie.  

Thus, it would really come down to PSU v Michigan and since they share Wisconsin that one is irrelevant.  It would simply be:

• Iowa and Illinois for PSU vs
• Northwestern and Nebraska for Michigan.  

From the look of things right now that strongly favors Penn State.  

you are amazing medina

[MrNubbz]

Just win Baby !

[847badgerfan]

Why not add Michigan State to this discussion?

[Mdot21]

Why not add Michigan State to this discussion?

I think their pass defense will keep them out of that discussion. They have the #123rd ranked pass defense in the country. There are 129 teams.

[Anonymous Coward]

I think their pass defense will keep them out of that discussion. They have the #123rd ranked pass defense in the country. There are 129 teams.

Mark Dantonio reads this board. MSU will now take the conference because of your DISRESPEKT.

[Anonymous Coward]

As for the tiebreakers, I believe #'s 5 and 6 are new this year. #6 is not a good tie-breaker. At least it's #6.

[Mdot21]

Mark Dantonio reads this board. MSU will now take the conference because of your DISRESPEKT.

Lol it's not DISRESPKT.
It's just not what we are accustomed to seeing from MSU pass D. They've pumped out some great players in that secondary under Dantonio and I can't ever remember them ranking that low in pass D. Not exactly like they've been playing a murderers row of passers in their first 4 games either.

[Anonymous Coward]

I think their secondary could be fine, though. Layne is practically a known entity. Dowell is among the conference's best safeties. Scott'll be back soon, but in the mean time the fill-in (is it Butler?) is "fine." 

The main issue? The pass rush. It's not good.

[Brutus Buckeye]

What if it instead happened with Michigan State, Maryland and Indiana? 

[Anonymous Coward]

What if it instead happened with Michigan State, Maryland and Indiana?

Haha, that's just mean. Less to the teams than to medina. That's like 1000 words you just asked for on a whim, and there's no going back now, like in South Park whenever Cartman hears the first few words of Come Sail Away. The remainder is inevitable.

[PortlandSpartan]

Sacks and TFL numbers are fine thus far and overall pressure was much improved against IU. 

The rush defense is fantastic so teams have really pressured the secondary. I’d bet MSU is near the tops in opponent pass attempts. Yards per attempt probably isn’t horrible. 

We’ll see if this stabilizes. 

[bayareabadger]

I think their pass defense will keep them out of that discussion. They have the #123rd ranked pass defense in the country. There are 129 teams.

There's a chance, maybe a good one, that number is a bit misleading. They are 123rd, but they've also faced the third-most passes per game. The yards per attempt is somewhat average (65th), in line with a defense like the 2015 one. 
I dunno if that helps or not, but they're 36th in yards per play allowed, with a less-cream puff schedule than most. Combine that with the notoriously slow starts, and maybe they round into form. Maybe not though. 
(What is fascinating is in a few years they basically de-Narduzzi-ized there defense, and were still damn good last year)