I'm more hopeful than optimistic for the Buckeye defense in 2022. Knowles runs a very complex scheme and in previous stops, you didn't see the improvement until about year 3. The defense doesn't have to improve to a top 10 defense or anything, but just needs to be better at forcing turnovers and getting off the field on 3rd downs. Give up some plays, but make some plays too. The bar is low for the defense, and I'm hopeful that it can be better than average. Average doesn't sound too bad though compared to last year.
I get what you are saying and I'm not expecting miracles in year-1 but, as you noted, average would be an improvement over last year. Moreover, average last year probably puts the team at 13-0 in the CFP. It probably wouldn't have been enough to win the NC and possibly not even a semi-final but I think it would have been enough to at least get there.
Here is what I am getting at when I say that average would probably have gotten the team to 13-0:
Michigan:
The Wolverines scored 42 freaking points on tOSU. These are all the teams that held them to 42 or less:
- Iowa 42
- Wisconsin 38
- Michigan State 33
- Northwestern 33
- Nebraska 32
- Washington 31
- Indiana 29
- Penn State 21
- Rutgers 20
- Georgia 11
I'd love to have a defense as good as Georgia's last year but we wouldn't have needed that to win THE GAME. Even without the extra stops resulting in more points for our team, simply holding them to 27 or less as both Penn State and FREAKING Rutgers did would have been enough to win. Holding them to 34 or less as those three along with Indiana, Washington, Nebraska, Northwestern, and Michigan State did would have made it a one-score game and if those extra stops had resulted in extra points for our team, we'd have won.
Oregon:
The Duck scored 35 points on tOSU. These are all the teams that held them to 35 or less:
- UCLA 34
- Oklahoma 32
- Fresno State 31
- Washington 26
- Stanford 24 (in OT)
- Cal 24
- Utah 10
- Utah 7
Once again, I'd love a defense as good as Utah's that held them to 17 combined points in two games but we wouldn't have needed that to win. Even without the extra stops resulting in more points for our team, simply holding them below 28 as Washington, Stanford, and Cal did would have been enough to win.
Assuming the offense is at least close to as good as they were in 2021, an average defense would likely be easily enough to get tOSU to the CFP in 2022.
