Bowl positioning heading into week 10

[medinabuckeye1]

Michigan (7-1), Ohio State (7-1), Penn State (6-2), and Iowa (6-2) have all clinched bowl eligibility.  Rutgers (1-7) has clinched ineligibility.  That leaves nine teams with the potential to go bowling but with work left to do:

• 5-3 Michigan State:  This is a lock.  Even if they lose to all the legitimate opponents left on their schedule, they'll still beat Rutgers Thanksgiving weekend and go bowling anyway.  
• 5-3 Wisconsin:  This is a lock.  The Badgers have Rutgers in Madison this weekend.  
• 5-3 Northwestern:  You would expect a team with a win over UW and a road win in East Lansing to already have six wins.  You would expect a team with a two-TD loss to DOOK and a home loss to Akron to already have seven losses.  Northwestern is both of those teams.  In theory their season-ending instate rivalry game with Illinois should send them bowling even if nothing else does but the way this team rollercoasters they might beat Notre Dame this weekend (we can hope) then lose to Illinois to end the season.  They should make it but none of their remaining games is a complete gimmie.  
• 5-3 Maryland:  So far in league play the Terps have three easy wins over bad teams at home and two distant losses to good teams on the road.  The next two weeks they get a fairly good MSU at home and a fairly bad IU on the road.  If they lose both they'll need an upset in Columbus or over PSU to go bowling.  
• 4-4 Purdue:  It may seem amazing but the Boilermaker squad that torched Ohio State might wind up home for the holidays.  In theory they should beat Minnesota and Indiana but both of those games are on the road.  Their other two remaining opponents are Iowa and Wisconsin both at home.  They should get there but it could get dicey.  
• 4-4 Minnesota:  If the Gophers lose at Illinois this weekend they are done.  If they can win that then they'll just need one of their last three but that will not be easy.  Their last three opponents are all in the B1G-W race.  
• 4-5 Indiana:  The Hoosiers are off this weekend then need to win two of their last three.  It is unlikely.  
• 3-5 Illinois:  The Illini would need to finish 3-1 to go bowling and I just can't see it happening.  However, if they can beat Minnesota this weekend they will at least have a chance to get one of those 5-7 bowl bids with an upset down the line.  
• 2-6 Nebraska:  The Cornhuskers would need to win out to go bowling legitimately and I just can't see it happening.  

[FearlessF]

• 2-6 Nebraska:  The Cornhuskers would need to win out to go bowling legitimately and I just can't see it happening.  

no chance this Saturday?

[medinabuckeye1]

no chance this Saturday?

It isn't so much that I don't think they have a chance this Saturday or for that matter in any of their four remaining games.  I think there is a plausible chance for the Cornuskers to win each of their remaining games but I do NOT think there is a plausible chance for the Cornhuskers to win ALL of their remaining games.  

[Cincydawg]

They might have more slots than teams eligible.

[FearlessF]

Riley was lucky enough to pull a bowl with 5 wins

worked out OK

[ELA]

Most recent Palm projection had MSU playing Texas A&M in the Outback.  I could get on board with that.  Opponent we haven't played in a long time, if ever, on NYD.  Surprised how infrequently MSU has played in the traditional Big Ten "next up" bowls, the Citrus and Outback during this run.  Last one was the 3OT win over Georgia in the Outback 7 years ago

[Cincydawg]

The highest ranked one loss team in the CFP is LSU.

The highest ranked 2 loss team is Florida.

The highest ranked 3 loss team is Miss State.

Oh, and the highest ranked undefeated team is Alabama.

[FearlessF]

there is a national perception that the SEC is strong

not everyone agrees or likes it, but it is undeniable

[LittlePig]

So I assuming the Mich-OSU winner will end up in the CFP final 4.  The loser will probably go to the Rose Bowl.  

That assumption means PSU loses to Mich and will have 3 losses and MSU loses to OSU and will have 4 losses.  That also assumes The west winner loses the CCG and will have 3 or 4 losses.

So I am guessing 
Mich to CFP cotton
OSU to Rose,
PSU to Citrus, 
MSU to Outback, 
Iowa to Holiday,  
NW to Gator, 
Wisc to Santa Clara  
Purdue to Pinstripe, 
MD to Detroit

Minn, Indy, Neb, ILL, Rut stay home