| The easy narrative is that Ohio State has been a team that plays to it's competition. However, after seeing Penn State lose again, and seeing TCU drop 3 of 4 going into a date with Oklahoma this week, the question is if you play to the level of your competition, but your competition hasn't been very good, where does that leave you? For all of the concerns, both ways, about the defenses in this tilt, Ohio State is 2nd in the Big Ten in scoring defense in Big Ten play, and Purdue is 4th. Even adjusted on a per play basis, they come in 6th and 7th. So while Ohio State fancies itself a national title contender, and Purdue got back to a bowl last year with defense, and neither seems to be at that level right now, the hyperbole about their defensive struggles seems a bit much. What seems to be absolutely the case is that neither defense has faced on offense like they one they'll face Saturday night. The Boilermakers and Buckeyes are the two schools averaging over 500 yards per game in the conference, and Dwayne Haskins is putting up numbers at the quarterback position we've never seen in Columbus. That's the issue, is that these defenses have been mediocre while facing largely bad offenses. Yes, Ohio State played Penn State, but their other three Big Ten opponents have the three worst offensive ypp averages in the conference. Likewise, Purdue played Nebraska, but Northwestern (without a healthy Thorson yet) and Illinois? Yuck. As explosive as Ohio State's offense has been, the scary thing is that they've done it while being almost one dimensional. Who that is scary for remains to be determined. Is it Ohio State fans, who know you don't win titles averaging 3.8 ypc. Or is it for opposing fans who see what the Buckeyes offense has been doing without opponents having to key on the run, but knowing that with J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber, it's unlikely to continue. Some of it starts up front, where PFF grades Ohio State's offensive line 2nd in the conference, but my eyes haven't seen that. Isaiah Prince seemed to be getting beat regularly when I'd pay attention to him last week. For Purdue the task is protecting David Blough. On the season, they've done a commendable job, 36th in the nation in adjusted sack rate allowed, but recently, they haven't, rising by over 2% to nearly 7%. May not seem like a big deal, but that's the difference between #36 and #80. Bill Connolly's metrics, which are finally live this week for OL production are VERY favorable to the Boilermakers. The one issue, 3rd and longs. Purdue is top 25 by several of his metrics, and are top ten in 4 of his 9, but while their sack rate on standard downs is only 1.4%, good for #9 in the nation, on passing downs that plummets to 10.5%, #98. Whether that's due to Blough holding the ball too long, or a philosophy of quick routes, that evaporates on 3rd and long, that's an issue for Purdue. Ohio State's defensive issues seem to be that they were 100% reliant on having a line so dominant that they could cover up for back end deficiencies with pressure, and with 7 man drops. It's been good, but it hasn't been insanely good, substantially due to injuries. That's allowed the holes in the back to be exposed. Each of the past 2 seasons Ohio State lost a road game to an unranked conference opponent. They've actually won 8 in a row against ranked conference opponents, dating back to the 2015 Michigan State loss. If you are looking for the 2016 Penn State or 2017 Iowa result for 2018, this seems like the best bet, although College Park is tricky, and Michigan State very well might be unranked in 3 weeks when they go to East Lansing. I still think it will look a lot more like the previous two weeks, with Purdue playing even with Ohio State for a half, and the Buckeyes pulling away with an unrelenting offense. |
