Author
Topic: Ohio State's remarkable consistency . . .
(Read 1381 times)

medinabuckeye1 · « **on:** July 30, 2021, 01:33:53 PM »

Or is it coming up short in big games?

In the last 50 years (1971-2020) Ohio State has the highest winning percentage in CFB. They have six fewer wins, 10 fewer losses, and one more tie than Oklahoma.

Despite being #1 in winning percentage, there are 10 schools with more NC's in the last 50 years than tOSU (2). They are:

10 NC's, Bama, #3 in win%
5 NC's, USC, #9 in win%
5 NC's, Miami, #15 in win%
4 NC's, Oklahoma, #2 in win%
4 NC's, Nebraska, #4 in win%
3 NC's, FSU, #8 in win%
3 NC's, UF, #10 in win%
3 NC's, Clemson, #11 in win%
3 NC's, Notre Dame, #14 in win%
3 NC's, LSU, #17 in win%

Starting with 1971 the Buckeyes either definitely or possibly missed an NC in the final game of their season all of the following times:

1972: Heading into the RoseBowl against #1 11-0 USC the Buckeyes were #3 (9-1, lost to MSU). Oklahoma was #2 (10-1) and beat #4 PSU (10-1, lost to Colorado) in the SugarBowl. Had #3 Ohio State defeated #1 USC in the RoseBowl there is a pretty good chance that they'd have leapfrogged Oklahoma and won the NC. They lost 42-17 and USC won the NC.
1975: Heading into the RoseBowl against #11 8-2-1 UCLA the Buckeyes were #1 (11-0 and had already beaten UCLA 41-20 in LA). Had they won they'd have won the NC. They lost 23-10 and Oklahoma won the NC.
1979: This was an odd year. The top-4 in the penultimate poll were all undefeated. Ohio State was #1 at 11-0, Bama was #2 at 11-0, USC was #3 at 10-0-1 (tied Stanford), and newbie FSU was #4 at 11-0. Since tOSU was #1 going in and playing #3 they'd have won the NC if they had won. They lost 17-16 and Bama won the NC.
2006: Lost BCSNCG to Floridia
2007: Lost BCSNCG to LSU
2020: Lost CFPNCG to Bama

Additionally, there were a number of other years in which a single loss or tie earlier probably cost the Buckeyes a NC:

1973: Tied Michigan 10-10 before beating USC 42-21 in the RoseBowl. Notre Dame won the NC but Ohio State was #1 prior to the tie with Michigan. Note that Michigan was also undefeated and #4 while undefeated ND was #5. Obviously if Ohio State had finished with back-to-back wins over #4 Michigan and #9 USC they would have held on to #1 and won the NC.
1993: Heading into the Michigan game the Buckeyes were #5 at 9-0-1. That might not sound all that close but after that all of the following happened: #1 ND lost to BC. #2 FSU lost to ND. #3 UNL lost to FSU. #4 MiamiFL lost to both WVU and Zona. With a win over Michigan and a RoseBowl win over UCLA (Wisconsin did beat them) the Buckeyes would have finished with an NC.
1996: Heading into the Michigan game the Buckeyes were #2 at 10-0. Subsequently #1 Florida lost to #3 FSU. Even if the Seminoles had leapfrogged the Buckeyes on the strength of their win over #1 it wouldn't have mattered because they then lost to Florida in their bowl while Ohio State beat the only other major undefeated (ASU) in the RoseBowl. With a win over Michigan and the RoseBowl win (as happened) the Buckeyes would have finished with an NC.
1998: This one really perturbs me because this team was phenomenal. Aside from the inexplicable loss to MSU they were hardly ever challenged all year long. They had been preseason #1 and they held that up until their loss to MSU. They eventually finished #2.
2003: This one is debatable because who knows what would have happened but remember that the Buckeyes were the defending National Champions which may have helped. Heading into the Michigan game the Buckeyes were #4 at 10-1. #1 Oklahoma was 11-0 while #2 and #3 USC and LSU were both 9-1. In reality Oklahoma lost their last two games (B12CG to KSU 35-7 and BCSNCG to LSU 21-14). With a win over Michigan the Buckeyes might have cracked the top-2 and made the BCSNCG or they might have ended up in the RoseBowl against USC with BOTH USC and tOSU ranked ahead of eventual BCSNCG winner LSU. Either way they could have gotten at least a split title.
2010: It would have been eventually vacated anyway but the only loss was at Wisconsin as #1 so with a win they would have replaced Oregon in the BCSNCG against Auburn and Oregon only BARELY lost that game.
2015: I've always thought this team was actually better than the NC winning team the year before but they somehow lost at home to MSU and thus missed the CFP. If they'd have gotten there . . .
2017: The Buckeyes lost twice but if they had won either of those games they'd have likely made the CFP. If they had beaten Oklahoma that would definitely have gotten them in by eliminating the Sooners. If they had beaten Iowa they'd have had a REALLY good loss (OU) and a league title and that probably would have gotten tOSU in ahead of Bama.

bayareabadger · « **Reply #1 on:** July 30, 2021, 02:25:43 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on July 30, 2021, 01:33:53 PM

Or is it coming up short in big games?

In the last 50 years (1971-2020) Ohio State has the highest winning percentage in CFB. They have six fewer wins, 10 fewer losses, and one more tie than Oklahoma.

Despite being #1 in winning percentage, there are 10 schools with more NC's in the last 50 years than tOSU (2). They are:

10 NC's, Bama, #3 in win%
5 NC's, USC, #9 in win%
5 NC's, Miami, #15 in win%
4 NC's, Oklahoma, #2 in win%
4 NC's, Nebraska, #4 in win%
3 NC's, FSU, #8 in win%
3 NC's, UF, #10 in win%
3 NC's, Clemson, #11 in win%
3 NC's, Notre Dame, #14 in win%
3 NC's, LSU, #17 in win%

Hmmm. I think the nature of being good for a long time is there will always be some mess of big games you remember coming up short in. Like, every one of those teams with worse numbers probably has a lot of almosts as well,

Getting to that top winning percentage is more about going 9-3 a lot as much as it is finishing the deal. That said, it is fair to say that OSU didn't mine a ton from their best moments. The best late Hayes era ran through four or so title-less years with possible title teams. Then you get two titles out of 17 years of .859 ball, that'll do it.

Also, 11 teams have 45 of 54 titles. Only others are Michigan, Colorado, Ga. Tech, Washington, Auburn, Pitt, UGA, BYU, PSU.

FearlessF · « **Reply #2 on:** July 30, 2021, 03:16:19 PM »

Osborne said it takes a little luck to get the title

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #3 on:** August 02, 2021, 12:12:16 PM »

Quote from: bayareabadger on July 30, 2021, 02:25:43 PM

Hmmm. I think the nature of being good for a long time is there will always be some mess of big games you remember coming up short in. Like, every one of those teams with worse numbers probably has a lot of almosts as well,

No doubt here. If you've been a contender a LOT then you are bound to have come up just short a few times.

Quote from: bayareabadger on July 30, 2021, 02:25:43 PM

Getting to that top winning percentage is more about going 9-3 a lot as much as it is finishing the deal.

This is very true. The biggest reason that Ohio State is #1 in winning percentage over the last 50 years is that they haven't had a decade of being mediocre or worse and pretty much every other school has.

Quote from: bayareabadger on July 30, 2021, 02:25:43 PM

That said, it is fair to say that OSU didn't mine a ton from their best moments. The best late Hayes era ran through four or so title-less years with possible title teams.

This is so true. Prior to the "Ten Year War" between Woody and Bo, Hayes coached tOSU for 18 years. Compare those first 18 to his last 10:
Winning %

.730, #3 nationally behind Ole Miss and Oklahoma from 1951-1968
.806, #7 nationally behind Michigan, Oklahoma, Penn State, Alabama, Notre Dame, and Nebraska from 1969-1978

It is interesting that tOSU's win% got better but was worse relative to other helmets.

League titles:

5 from 1951-1968, a little better than one every four years. This was #1 in the league as no other school had more than 3 (IL, UW, IA, MSU). Michigan only had one.
8 from 1969-1978, four every five years. This was tied for #1 in the league with Michigan while the entire rest of the league had one combined (MSU in 1978 split with Michigan.

National titles:

3 from 1951-1968, one every six years.
1 *MAYBE* from 1969-1978 (the school claims 1970 but they lost their bowl. One every 10 years and a questionable one at that.

There was only one questionable NC from 1969-1978 but there were oh-so-many near misses:

1969: The team was defending NC and had been #1 all year long before losing to Michigan.
1970: The team was 9-0 before losing the Rose Bowl to Stanford. The sad thing for the Buckeyes is that the 1968 NC team was made up mostly of sophomores (first year players back then) and was probably better in 1969 and 1970 but they lost their last game both years.
1972: The team finished 9-2. One loss was 19-12 in East Lansing to an MSU team that only finished 5-5-1. Just one of those "upsets happen" things. The other was a blowout in the Rose Bowl to USC.
1973: The Buckeyes and Wolverines tied then the Buckeyes blew out USC in the Rose Bowl. IMHO, tOSU and Michigan were the best two teams in the country and were just REALLY unfortunate that they both had teams that good in the same year.
1974: Another inexplicable loss to a mediocre MSU team (7-3-1 this time) then a 1-point loss to USC in the Rose Bowl.
1975: This team, like 1973 was probably the best in the country. Their only loss was in the Rose Bowl to a UCLA team that they had destroyed earlier in the season.

In Woody's last 10 years he had six teams that were, as you put it, "possible title teams". I take that to mean NC Caliber or good enough to possibly win it and somehow tOSU got zero titles out of that unless you count 1970.

Quote from: bayareabadger on July 30, 2021, 02:25:43 PM

Then you get two titles out of 17 years of .859 ball, that'll do it.

Exactly what 17 years are you referring to here?

Quote from: bayareabadger on July 30, 2021, 02:25:43 PM

Also, 11 teams have 45 of 54 titles. Only others are Michigan, Colorado, Ga. Tech, Washington, Auburn, Pitt, UGA, BYU, PSU.

That shows how strongly helmets dominate. Interestingly, the last first-time AP NC was Florida in 1996. This is an exclusive club.

Quote from: FearlessF on July 30, 2021, 03:16:19 PM

Osborne said it takes a little luck to get the title

I agree, but I think that is less true today. Back in the BCS and pre-BCS eras one of the biggest things you needed was to have your "bad game" in a week when you could win anyway rather than getting knocked off. For example, back in 2002 the Buckeyes played clearly NOT NC Caliber ball in a bunch of games but they were against teams like Cincinnati and Northwestern so they won anyway and kept surviving. Alternatively, the Buckeyes missed out on titles or title chances by losing to significantly inferior teams in many other years.

I think it is different now because the CFP has reduced the focus on being undefeated. Starting from the very first year, Ohio State lost their opener to a mediocre VaTech team and pre-CFP that probably would have done them in but in the CFP era that didn't end their chances.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #4 on:** August 02, 2021, 12:36:26 PM »

What is OSU's worst three year span since 1936?

Brutus Buckeye · « **Reply #5 on:** August 02, 2021, 01:31:34 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 02, 2021, 12:36:26 PM

What is OSU's worst three year span since 1936?

It was clearly 1946-48, which still included a season where they finished in the Top 25 in 1948.

You could maybe argue 2010-12 on mere technicalities, but you'd be really wrong to do so, imo, as in reality only one actually constituted a "bad season."

bayareabadger · « **Reply #6 on:** August 02, 2021, 10:10:32 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on August 02, 2021, 12:12:16 PM

Exactly what 17 years are you referring to here?

The Tress and Meyer eras.

Mdot21 · « **Reply #7 on:** August 03, 2021, 09:08:04 AM »

all comes down to coaching. Ohio State has been on a serious run of excellence in coaching hires.

Woody Hayes (HOF, all-timer coach) to Earle Bruce (81-26-1 in 9 years - 75% win pct) to John Cooper (couldn't beat MI, but he was 111-43-1 at OSU- 72% winning pct % ain't terrible) to Jim Tressel (83% win pct%, 1 NC, 3 NC appearances, dominated Michigan) to Urban Meyer (one of the GOAT football coaches- 90% win pct% & 1 NC at OSU) to a young up and coming hot-shot Ryan Day (92% win pct%-).

Ohio State has knocked it out of the park with it's coaching hires. Even their two "bad coaches" Bruce & Cooper won 75% & 72% of their games while at OSU. There isn't another school that even comes close to that kind of consistency and track record in hiring football coaches.

Meanwhile Michigan's last 3 coaches?

RichRod - 40% win pct. OUCH.
Hokie - 60% win pct.
Harbaugh - 69% win pct.

Harbaugh isn't even winning at the same clip as the coaches OSU fired for not winning enough. Crazy.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #8 on:** August 03, 2021, 09:09:49 AM »

I don't know about Day yet, there is no reason to think he's bad, but he could be "ordinary", and just have inherited a fortune.

Ordinary could be good enough.

Brutus Buckeye · « **Reply #9 on:** August 03, 2021, 10:29:56 AM »

Quote from: Mdot21 on August 03, 2021, 09:08:04 AM

Harbaugh isn't even winning at the same clip as the coaches OSU fired for not winning enough. Crazy.

I saw a stat that in order for Harbaugh to match Cooper's OSU career, he'd have to win three Big Ten Titles in the next seven years, beat OSU twice, win two major bowl games, and produce a Heisman winner.

Every Wolverine fan would sign up for that in a heartbeat.

Gigem · « **Reply #10 on:** August 03, 2021, 11:21:33 AM »

You know you’re tempting the ECFG (evil capricious football gods) with this post right?

There isn’t anything special that makes tOSU incapable of hiring a doofus head coach. The top and best helmet teams in the land have all done it. You’ve just really IMO been extremely lucky.

Hawkinole · « **Reply #11 on:** August 05, 2021, 01:03:18 AM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on July 30, 2021, 01:33:53 PM

In the last 50 years (1971-2020) Ohio State has the highest winning percentage in CFB. They have six fewer wins, 10 fewer losses, and one more tie than Oklahoma.

Starting to sound like Michigan 60-years ago.

No worries. If the Hawkeyes or Seminoles did this I would post about it too.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #12 on:** August 05, 2021, 09:05:55 AM »

I lean to thinking OSU can "tolerate" a midlevel coach for a long time. He's going to get able assisstants and recruiting should be fairly easy. They might drop to being more of a 10-2 kind of team for a while. It's tough for me to separate the situation and the coach in many cases, like with UGA. Maybe Smart is really a midlevel coach.

Maybe Day is. Urban was not.

FearlessF · « **Reply #13 on:** August 05, 2021, 09:30:58 AM »

Quote from: Hawkinole on August 05, 2021, 01:03:18 AM

Starting to sound like Michigan 60-years ago. No worries. If the Hawkeyes or Seminoles did this I would post about it too.

the Seminoles had a nice run
Perhaps you could remind us

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.

Topic: Ohio State's remarkable consistency . . .

medinabuckeye1

Ohio State's remarkable consistency . . .

bayareabadger

Re: Ohio State's remarkable consistency . . .

FearlessF

Re: Ohio State's remarkable consistency . . .

medinabuckeye1

Re: Ohio State's remarkable consistency . . .

Cincydawg

Re: Ohio State's remarkable consistency . . .

Brutus Buckeye

Re: Ohio State's remarkable consistency . . .

bayareabadger

Re: Ohio State's remarkable consistency . . .

Mdot21

Re: Ohio State's remarkable consistency . . .

Cincydawg

Re: Ohio State's remarkable consistency . . .

Brutus Buckeye

Re: Ohio State's remarkable consistency . . .

Gigem

Re: Ohio State's remarkable consistency . . .

Hawkinole

Re: Ohio State's remarkable consistency . . .

Cincydawg

Re: Ohio State's remarkable consistency . . .

FearlessF

Re: Ohio State's remarkable consistency . . .