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Topic: Odds we have a football season poll

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MaximumSam

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Re: Odds we have a football season poll
« Reply #84 on: July 08, 2020, 06:59:48 PM »
Multiple OSU players have tested positive and they are postponing workouts

MaximumSam

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Re: Odds we have a football season poll
« Reply #85 on: July 08, 2020, 07:03:27 PM »
Also Ivy League says no sports until January 1st

MichiFan87

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Re: Odds we have a football season poll
« Reply #86 on: July 08, 2020, 11:40:44 PM »
Some seemingly credible message board posts on mgoblog saying that the season will definitely be cancelled / postponed to spring. Apparently there'll be a public announcement next week....
“When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft. On the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them. Keep believing”
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Honestbuckeye

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Re: Odds we have a football season poll
« Reply #87 on: July 09, 2020, 06:17:08 AM »
I think we need to be thinking longer term.  

Don’t shoot the messenger- but as long as the standard is athletes/ students testing positive- I can see a scenario where both this season and next are wiped out.  
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
-Mark Twain

Cincydawg

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Re: Odds we have a football season poll
« Reply #88 on: July 09, 2020, 07:00:04 AM »
I suppose everyone views the vaccine availability as being key.  Maybe it is.  I'm cautiously hopeful, and still concerned about the obvious.


betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Odds we have a football season poll
« Reply #89 on: July 09, 2020, 09:47:34 AM »
I think we need to be thinking longer term. 

Don’t shoot the messenger- but as long as the standard is athletes/ students testing positive- I can see a scenario where both this season and next are wiped out. 
I think that by fall 2021, if we don't have a vaccine we'll have so much COVID fatigue--and be close enough to herd immunity, especially amongst the young--that there's no way a few positive tests become the standard.

Cincydawg

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Re: Odds we have a football season poll
« Reply #90 on: July 09, 2020, 09:52:27 AM »
We're around 3 million known cases in the US.  We had around 61,000 new cases reported yesterday.  I think we might expect 10 million have been infected at the low end and perhaps 100,000 new cases per day, and the new cases are doubling about every 40 days.

We're a ways from herd immunity, even if we double every month.

20 million August
40 million Sept
80 million Oct .... I don't think we'd be doubling this fast at this point.  Hospitals would be overrun.  People would be scared if this happened and basically stay at home.  Herd immunity is around 200,000,000, IF immunity lasts about a year or so.


betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Odds we have a football season poll
« Reply #91 on: July 09, 2020, 09:56:32 AM »
Yeah, but we're talking fall 2021... No way we're close by fall 2020.

I'm going to state outright that if we still haven't "beaten" COVID by Fall 2021 (either by a vaccine or the virus petering out due to having trouble finding new hosts to infect), people are still going to be so sick of it that we'll have football. 

ELA

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Cincydawg

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Re: Odds we have a football season poll
« Reply #93 on: July 09, 2020, 01:39:08 PM »
When "people you know" start reporting infections in decent numbers, "you" are going to change your behaviors.  I already have.

We were going to the wife's "hair dresser" tomorrow, he could cut my hair while she is being treated for color.  He called and said a friend of his tested positive, so he's being tested again, and delayed out appointment until after his test comes back.  Good for him.  Obviously, if the wife gets it I'll get it 99%.

I was jogging earlier, kind of the usual mix of people, joggers were not wearing masks.  People are trying to maintain distance, I think that message has gotten through here.  Local restaurants are struggling for business now.  I notice residents in the building being more careful, wearing masks, asking others to wait on the next elevator, etc.    I sense behaviors are changing which hopefully will help control the spread.

Chance of ANY CFB games this fall, maybe 10%.  Chance of a full season, <1%.  

Entropy

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Re: Odds we have a football season poll
« Reply #94 on: July 09, 2020, 01:56:12 PM »

https://twitter.com/Brett_McMurphy/status/1281226062542798848?s=20



the more this is talked about the more I feel CF wants to slowly introduce the idea of delays before announcing them...

Hawkinole

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Re: Odds we have a football season poll
« Reply #95 on: July 09, 2020, 02:24:04 PM »

https://twitter.com/Brett_McMurphy/status/1281226062542798848?s=20

In April it appeared the country was prepared to take extraordinary efforts to slow and stop the spread. But it turns out the country did not carry through. In March and April we thought warm weather would slow the spread, as well. 

Cincydawg

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Re: Odds we have a football season poll
« Reply #96 on: July 09, 2020, 02:48:19 PM »
There was always considerable doubt about the seasonality of the virus.  We didn't know for sure.

I'm not sure how long the country could have held to those extraordinary efforts to slow the virus.

I also lean to thinking we can't change area under the curve no matter what short of an effective vaccine or HI.

847badgerfan

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Re: Odds we have a football season poll
« Reply #97 on: July 09, 2020, 02:57:06 PM »
I think it's time to face reality. There won't be football this year. There, I said it. The offseason stream thread will live until August, 2021.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

 

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