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Thought experiment:

Is Indiana mathematically eliminated?  I don't think so but it is close.  

This weekend either PSU (4-0) or tOSU (4-0) will win and thus move to 5-0.  The tOSU/PSU winner can do no worse than 5-4.  Indiana is 0-4 and already lost to both PSU and tOSU.  Thus, Indiana can do no better than a tie with the tOSU/PSU winner.  The problem for Indiana is that they already lost to both.  

It gets worse.  MSU is also 4-0 and also already beat Indiana.  Furthermore, in order for Indiana to tie for the B1G-E Championship, the Spartans will have to beat the tOSU/PSU winner.  

Thus, the only way Indiana can win a share of the B1G-E is if:

• They win out to finish 5-4, and
• The tOSU/PSU winner loses out to finish 5-4, and
• Michigan State beats the tOSU/PSU winner but loses all the rest of their games to finish 5-4, and
• Every other team in the B1G-E also finishes no better than 5-4.  

That would create a 3-way tie at 5-4 between IU, MSU, and the tOSU/PSU winner.  The problem for Indiana is that they lost to those teams so in order to win this tie they'll need to add two teams that they defeat.  They already lost to Michigan so those two teams would have to be Rutgers and Maryland.  Additionally, the tOSU/PSU loser will also be involved in the tie because they have to beat MSU and that team also already beat Indiana.  

Ok, Indiana is mathematically eliminated.  Here is why:
Indiana could only get into a tie at 5-4 but that tie would include all of the following teams:

• The PSU/tOSU winner, and
• Michigan State (because they have to beat the tOSU/PSU winner), and 
• The PSU/tOSU loser (because they have to beat MSU).  

Thus, the potential tie in the B1G-E would include three teams that beat Indiana (PSU, tOSU, MSU) so even if the only two teams in the B1G-E that haven't already defeated Indiana were included, the Hoosiers would still be only 2-3 in the H2H2H2H2H.  Who would win?  

• Ohio State would be 4-1 (beat IU, UMD, RU, and either PSU or MSU, lost to either PSU or MSU)
• Maryland would be 3-2 (beat RU, MSU, PSU, lost to IU, tOSU)

• PSU would be 2-3 (beat Indiana and either tOSU or MSU, lost to RU, UMD, and either tOSU or MSU)
• MSU would be 2-3 (beat Indiana and either tOSU or PSU, lost to RU, UMD, and either tOSU or PSU)
• Indiana would be 2-3 (beat RU and UMD, lost to tOSU, PSU, and MSU)
• Rutgers would be 2-3 (beat MSU, PSU, lost to UMD, IU, tOSU)

FWIW:  Michigan would also be part of this tie if they were to beat both Wisconsin and Minnesota (they already have to lose to UMD and RU and beat tOSU for any of this to happen).  If Michigan is in the tie as well then:

• Ohio State would be 4-2
• Maryland would be 4-2
• PSU would be 3-3
• MSU would be 3-3
• Rutgers would be 3-3
• Indiana would be 2-4
• Michigan would be 2-4 (beat IU and tOSU, lost to MSU, PSU, RU, UMD)

I'm not sure how that would get settled.  I think tOSU wins on the basis that the Buckeyes and Terps have the best Divisional records and the Buckeyes won the H2H among those two.  

In any case, Indiana is officially mathematically eliminated because no possible combination of results would get them to Indianapolis.  The Hoosiers are the first team to be eliminated in the B1G race this year.  

with all due respect to MSU, I just can't see them going to Indy barring a couple of upsets to PSU and OSU. everytime I watch them they only score 14-17 points, and that's not typically enough.

but who knows, maybe they'll get to play 2 more games in a monsoon. their defense seems pretty legit.

OSU failed to score 20 points in regulation of 5 of their final 6 Big Ten games in 2002.
So yes, who knows.
I also wouldn't bet on it though.

for sure, MSU could win with D and special teams.

I'm not sure I'd put this MSU defense with the OSU 2002, not after ND dropped 38 points on it. but who knows, maybe I'm underselling their D.

OSU failed to score 20 points in regulation of 5 of their final 6 Big Ten games in 2002.
So yes, who knows.
I also wouldn't bet on it though.

for sure, MSU could win with D and special teams.

I'm not sure I'd put this MSU defense with the OSU 2002, not after ND dropped 38 points on it. but who knows, maybe I'm underselling their D.

In fairness, they had a pick 6, and recovered a fumble inside the 15 yard line.
Not saying that was MSU's finest game, it certainly wasn't.  And I don't anticipate them looking much better against PSU than UM did, but ND's defense scored 14 of those points (one directly, one about as easy as it gets)

More on tiebreakers:

If PSU, tOSU, and MSU all end up going 1-1 against each other and beating everyone else they will finish tied for first at 8-1.  Per the B1G website, the decisive tiebreaker in that scenario would be "cumulative conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents." 

All three teams play Iowa so that is a wash.  The three B1G-W opponents of the Lions, Spartans, and Buckeyes (with their records) are:

• Iowa (1-3):  PSU, MSU, and tOSU
• Northwestern (2-2):  PSU and MSU
• Nebraska (2-2):  tOSU and PSU
• Minnesota (1-3):  MSU
• Illinois (0-4):  tOSU

Thus, at present the cumulative records of MSU's, PSU's, and tOSU's B1G-W opponents are:

• 5-7 - Penn State 
• 4-8 - Michigan State 
• 3-9 - Ohio State

I think that this game is much more of a 'do or die' situation for the Buckeyes than it is for the Lions.  After this PSU will play MSU then three bad teams (RU, UNL, UMD).  Thus, it is REALLY hard to imagine PSU losing more than once after this game so there is basically no way for Ohio State to get to Indianapolis without winning here.  

Penn State's chances of getting to Indianapolis after losing this game are substantially better.  For one thing they currently lead and would probably win in the decisive tiebreaker in the event of a three-way tie with the Buckeyes and Spartans.  Additionally, after this game the Buckeyes still have to host MSU and travel to both Iowa and Michigan.  It is therefore, not impossible to imagine Ohio State losing twice after winning this game.