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Topic: November 11, 2017: A Frosty Drizzle of Precious Snowflakes

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MarqHusker

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Re: November 11, 2017: A Frosty Drizzle of Precious Snowflakes
« Reply #154 on: November 12, 2017, 12:25:52 AM »
So chippy at the rose bowl.  A blk punt td, and asu ties it.

bayareabadger

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Re: November 11, 2017: A Frosty Drizzle of Precious Snowflakes
« Reply #155 on: November 12, 2017, 07:03:35 AM »
Iowa had 11 more yards than it had points last week, and UW won comfortably despite two pick-sixes.

Three option teams I enjoy won key games. 

I enjoyed yesterday. 

FearlessF

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Re: November 11, 2017: A Frosty Drizzle of Precious Snowflakes
« Reply #156 on: November 12, 2017, 08:58:35 AM »
a good football day yesterday

if I could only block out the collapse vs the Gophers

corngrats to the boat rowers
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

bayareabadger

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Re: November 11, 2017: A Frosty Drizzle of Precious Snowflakes
« Reply #157 on: November 12, 2017, 09:38:07 AM »
Arizona is this year's fun team.
QB stats:
GT completed 3 passes, 2 for TDs and one for a pick 6 and won
Army threw 1 pass for 41 yards and won
Navy's backup (or 3rd string?) QB threw 1 pass it was picked and he had a 98.4 QBR. Rushing for 285 might of had something to do with that rating tho and also won.
Funny story about that.
He started for the injured starter, so that sort of makes him the No. 2. But he's not on the depth chart at QB. He's a starting wingback, who came into yesterday with 454 yards on 10.3 a carry. Their listed No. 2 QB only played to run three times and set up the game-winning field goal. Their listed No. 3 is a kick returner. 
What's even weirder is the kid who ran for all those yards was the fourth stringer last year who had to get pulled out of the student section in the opener. 

MrNubbz

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Re: November 11, 2017: A Frosty Drizzle of Precious Snowflakes
« Reply #158 on: November 12, 2017, 11:55:15 AM »
Well if there were any doubts about Butch Jones/Bret Bielema's futures they were sealed yesterday.MSU/OSU & UW/IA turned into clunkers.OK ST/IA ST & VTech/GTech held up their ends
Suburbia:Where they tear out the trees & then name streets after them.

ELA

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Re: November 11, 2017: A Frosty Drizzle of Precious Snowflakes
« Reply #159 on: November 12, 2017, 12:23:06 PM »
A lot of good, quality teams got their asses handed to them today.  Hmmph.
Yeah you can never predict these things.  Schedule looked primed to be the best Saturday of the year, and instead 5 of the 7 games between ranked teams were blowouts.  Next week as of now we have no such matchups...so expect all kinds of fun.

ELA

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Re: November 11, 2017: A Frosty Drizzle of Precious Snowflakes
« Reply #160 on: November 15, 2017, 09:56:34 AM »
Week 11 Tournament projections

    FLORIDA ATLANTIC
   2 CLEMSON
NOON - espn2

25 BOISE STATE
  3 MIAMI
1:30 - ESPN

   9 OHIO STATE
   8 NOTRE DAME
3:00 - ABC

15 CENTRAL FLORIDA
   5 WISCONSIN
4:30 - espn2

     TROY
  1 ALABAMA
6:00 - ESPN

11 USC
  7 GEORGIA
7:30 - ABC

     TOLEDO
  4 OKLAHOMA
9:00 - espn2

12 TCU
  6 AUBURN
10:30 - ESPN
« Last Edit: November 15, 2017, 10:02:05 AM by ELA »

medinabuckeye1

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Re: November 11, 2017: A Frosty Drizzle of Precious Snowflakes
« Reply #161 on: November 15, 2017, 11:42:18 AM »
The playoff has changed cfb in an interesting way.  It has fundamentally changed rooting interests into something much more similar to the CBB model than the old CFB model.  Allow me to explain:

In CBB if your team is a bubble team your rooting interest is generally to always root for the favories/higher ranked teams because upsets by fellow bubble teams are bad for your teams chances.  

Pre-playoff in CFB if your team was on the BCSNCG or NC "bubble" your rooting interest was always to root for upsets because you needed highly-ranked teams to lose in order to clear a path.  

Looking at Ohio State right now, they are basically a playoff "bubble team".  They aren't in, and obviously would not be in the CFP if the season ended today.  However, they aren't completely out because there is at least a theoretical chance that they could make the top-4.  If you are a fan of a bubble team and you want them in the playoff then your rooting interest is for:
  • The higher ranked team in the SEC (because Bama winning out would eliminate Auburn and UGA as competitors.  
  • The better record team in the ACC (because Miami winning out would eliminate Clemson as a competitor.  
  • Upsets in the B12 (because Ohio State can't pass Oklahoma without Oklahoma losing at least once.  
  • Anybody who plays Notre Dame (because the Irish at 10-2 are a competitor but at 9-3 or 8-4 they aren't.  

My thoughts on the field at this point:

IMHO, the following teams all control their own destiny:
  • #1 Bama:  If they win out they'll stay #1 and take out #6&7.  
  • #2 Clemson:  If they win out they'll stay at least #2 and take out #3.  
  • #3 Miami:  If they win out they'll move up to at least #2 by taking out #2 Clemson.  
  • #4 Oklahoma:  If they win out they'll move up to at least #3 because either Miami or Clemson will lose.  Additionally winning out would take out #12 TCU.  
  • #5 Wisconsin:  This latest poll makes clear what the rest of us have been telling badge all along.  If the Badgers win out they'll move up to at least #4 because either Clemson or Miami will necessarily lose.  
  • #6 Auburn:  If they win out they'll move up to at least #4 because either Clemson or Miami will necessarily lose and winning out would take out #1 and #7.  
  • #7 Georgia:  If they win out they'll move up to at least #4 because either Clemson or Miami will necessarily lose and winning out would assure that #1&6 are taken out.  

Teams that need help but are still theoretically alive:
  • #8 Notre Dame:  The Irish probably need a lot of help because conference championships are a stated consideration of the committee and Notre Dame can't win one.  They do have a tough SoS but they need at least one upset somewhere and they have to be concerned about being passed by a hypothetical 11-2 conference champion such as Ohio State, USC (unlikely because they beat them H2H), TCU, OkSU, WSU, or Michigan.  
  • #9 Ohio State:  I believe that Ohio State's situation is probably better than Notre Dame's because the Buckeyes can win a P5 Conference Championship Game and be a P5 Champ and the Irish can't.  
  • #10 Penn State:  The Nittany Lions need all kinds of help because they can't get to the B1GCG unless Ohio State loses out.  
  • #11 USC:  The Trojans need help because they probably can't pass Notre Dame unless the Irish lose again.  
  • #12 TCU:  The Horned Frogs control their own destiny to a B12 Championship but they likely need a lot of help because that wouldn't get them past the B1GCG winner without an upset somewhere.  
  • #13 OkSU:  The Cowboys need a lot of help because they can't even get to the B12CG without somebody upsetting TCU.  
  • #14 WSU:  The Cougars control their own destiny to the P12 Championship but they need help because that will not be enough without a rash of upsets elsewhere.  
  • #18 Washington:  The Huskies need all kinds of help because they can't get to the P12CG unless Stanford loses to Cal (hey, WSU did so I guess it could happen).  
  • #24 Michigan:  The Wolverines need all kinds of help because they can't get to the B1GCG unless both PSU and MSU lose again.  What makes that unlikely is that PSU's and MSU's remaining opponents are Maryland (home and away), Rutgers (away), and Nebraska (home).  

There is almost no scenario in which any team outside of those 16 could make the playoff.  

The teams that need help and Auburn are all basically facing elimination each game from here on out because a 3-loss team is extremely unlikely to make it.  

Each of the six teams that control their own destiny and are not named Auburn could lose a game and still get back into the mix with enough upsets elsewhere.  

MarqHusker

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Re: November 11, 2017: A Frosty Drizzle of Precious Snowflakes
« Reply #162 on: November 15, 2017, 12:10:33 PM »
good post Medina.   I still think tOSU will be (rightly) punished in a 2 loss team beauty contest for getting trucked by OU at home and by an otherwise punchless Iowa team.

As we saw last year,  winning a P5 conference championship doesn't necessarily afford you any special exemptions.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: November 11, 2017: A Frosty Drizzle of Precious Snowflakes
« Reply #163 on: November 15, 2017, 12:34:43 PM »
good post Medina.   I still think tOSU will be (rightly) punished in a 2 loss team beauty contest for getting trucked by OU at home and by an otherwise punchless Iowa team.

As we saw last year,  winning a P5 conference championship doesn't necessarily afford you any special exemptions.
I hope this is not interpreted as me simply being a homer because it is not meant that way at all, but I'm not so sure.  As Lee Corso would say, "Not so fast".  
My impression so far is that the committee has been VERY forgiving of bad losses and that they are a LOT more interested in whom you beat than in the details of your losses.  
2014:
  • Ohio State got in despite a 14 point home loss to an unranked team that finished 7-6.  
  • Alabama lost to a 4-loss team.  
  • Oregon lost to a 4-loss team.  
Baylor's loss (by 14 at WVU) was arguably better than Ohio State's and TCU's loss (by 3 at Baylor) was clearly better than Ohio State's.  

2015:
  • Michigan State got in despite losing to a sub .500 Nebraska team.  
  • Oklahoma got in despite losing to a sub .500 Texas team.  

2016:
  • Clemson got in despite losing to an 8-5 Pitt team.  

I don't mean this to argue for Ohio State.  I just wanted to point out that when evaluating teams with one loss, a bad loss hasn't hurt teams too much with the committee.  

I also think it is fairly likely that a 2-loss team will make it this year.  

There are only six remaining P5 teams with one or less losses:
  • 10-0 Bama
  • 9-1 Clemson
  • 9-0 Miami (only plays 11 regular season games due to cancelled game)
  • 9-1 Oklahoma
  • 10-0 Wisconsin
  • 9-1 Georgia
If:
  • Bama wins out, and
  • Miami wins out, and
  • Oklahoma wins out, and
  • Ohio State (or theoretically Michigan, MSU, or PSU) beats Wisconsin in the B1GCG
Then:
There will only be four undefeated or one-loss P5 teams:
  • 13-0 SEC Champion Bama
  • 13-0 ACC Champion Miami
  • 12-1 B12 Champion Oklahoma
  • 12-1 non-champion Wisconsin
In that scenario I think it is unlikely that Wisconsin would make the playoff.  Bama, Miami, and Oklahoma would all obviously be in and the fourth spot would be between:
  • 12-1 non-champion Wisconsin
  • 11-2 B1G Champion Ohio State (or theoretically Michigan or Penn State)
  • 10-2 Notre Dame (assuming they win out)
  • 11-2 P12 Champion USC or WSU or Washington

At that point those two bad losses are a problem for Ohio State but everybody in this group has problems.  In this scenario:
  • Wisconsin played a weak schedule, isn't a conference champion, and lost H2H to Ohio State.  
  • Ohio State has two blowout losses.  
  • Notre Dame has a blowout loss (to Miami).  
  • USC has a blowout loss (to Notre Dame).  
  • WSU played a weak schedule and got blown out by Cal and Arizona.  
  • Washington played a weak schedule.  

If I were on the committee that would be a tough call for me.  I think it would end up being between Notre Dame and Ohio State and I don't know how that would get decided.  

MaximumSam

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Re: November 11, 2017: A Frosty Drizzle of Precious Snowflakes
« Reply #164 on: November 15, 2017, 12:52:08 PM »
Honestly I think OSU getting trucked in the playoffs last year hurts them as much or more.  In a close call, why should they get a break?  

But, if they finish as B1G champs, and the only other options are the Pac 12 champs or a 2 loss non-champ Clemson, or ND, not sure what they would do with that.

ELA

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Re: November 11, 2017: A Frosty Drizzle of Precious Snowflakes
« Reply #165 on: November 15, 2017, 01:44:16 PM »
Honestly I think OSU getting trucked in the playoffs last year hurts them as much or more.  In a close call, why should they get a break?  

But, if they finish as B1G champs, and the only other options are the Pac 12 champs or a 2 loss non-champ Clemson, or ND, not sure what they would do with that.
I heard that speculation too.  OSU became the first non-conference champ to get in last year, and they laid an egg.  Why should they get the same benefit of the doubt to be the first 2 loss team to get in?
But they sort of got the benefit of the doubt in 2014, and that worked out ok.

 

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