Teams with 1st Loss Week 6:
Kansas
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 6:
Memphis
UNLV
Washington State
Louisiana State
Utah
Kentucky
Florida State
Brigham Young
Washington
Maryland
Duke
Air Force
Teams with 1st Win Week 6 :
Colorado State
Percent of Teams with 1st Loss of Season
Week 0/1: 38.9% (51 of 131)
Week 2: 37.5% (30 of 80)
Week 3: 34% (17 of 50)
Week 4: 36.4% (12 of 33)
Week 5: 23.8% (5 of 21)
Week 6: 6.25% (1 of 16)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
6: The champs of the ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, PAC-12, and Coastal Carolina/James Madison
-No change from last week.
Week 6 Thoughts:
-We only lost one undefeated team this week and that was in a game between undefeated teams.
-Colorado State, one of our last 2 winless teams, managed to go on the road and beat Nevada in a close game. This leaves only Colorado winless in FBS football.
-The Big 12 and the PAC-12 are on opposite footings with their departing members. Oklahoma is now a train wreck, and Texas, while very much in the Big 12 race, has two losses and would need a real lot to get in the CFP race again. For the best chance for the conference to get into the playoff bowls, the Big 12 needs someone else to win out and not the departing biggest name schools. The PAC-12, by contrast, has only USC and UCLA left unbeaten after this week and only Oregon still has one loss. The Ducks could still make the playoff, but the magnitude of their loss to Georgia will hurt. The conferences best chance at the playoff bowls are for one of the departing members to win out. That said, Oregon is slightly favored to win the conference. Utah losing this week didn't help.
-Back on the Big 12, it is by far the most balanced power 5 conference. We have 4 teams with under 5-1 odds to win the conference (Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas, Kansas State) and Baylor isn't that far behind.
-In the ACC, North Carolina beat Miami (FL) this week. This leaves them a decent favorite to win the Coastal. It still somehow blows my mind that Miami has only been to one ACC Championship Game.
-Alabama and Georgia between them have gotten a few scares this year, even if they keep winning. Alabama escaped the Aggies Saturday to stay unbeaten. Both Alabama and Georgia do play Tennessee, who remain unbeaten, and who just blew past LSU. They might be able to make things interesting here.
-In the Big Ten, for the first time in years, 1-loss Illinois is ranked after their all field goal game win over Iowa. The Illini now have victories over Wisconsin and Iowa in division, but lost in what seems a more bizarre game to Indiana early in the year. Them, along with Minnesota and Purdue, are the teams from the west with the best odds right now. None of them have made a Big Ten Championship Game before.
-In the race for the New Years 6 from the Group of 5 conferences, the Mountain West finds itself now with just a single one loss team in San Jose State. They beat previous 1-loss UNLV this week, while Air Force fell to Utah State. If we keep the trend going of an undefeated or 1-loss team taking the G5 auto spot, our only remaining options are now Coastal Carolina (undefeated), South Alabama, UNLV, Cincinnati, Tulane, and UCF. I would lean to the current pecking order being undefeated Coastal Carolina and then a 1-loss American team, but that is very up for debate and probably comes down to specific teams.
Week 7 Thoughts:
-There are 3 games between undefeated teams this week and two more between some combination of undefeated and 1-loss teams.
-Undefeated Penn State @ undefeated Michigan: This is a big game in the Big Ten. The winner will control their destiny in the east division and be the one with the best odds after Ohio State of winning it.
-Undefeated Alabama @ undefeated Tennessee: This old rivalry has been Alabama's for the taking a great number of years now. They needed everything to pull off a win vs. Texas A&M last week though and Tennessee has been really good this year. The Tide are still touchdown favorites, but this is more interesting than it has been in a long time.
-Undefeated Oklahoma State @ undefeated TCU: This is a battle of the last two undefeated teams in the Big 12. Only the winner will completely control their CFP chances. Both teams will be in the Big 12 race still though.
-Cal @ winless Colorado: Colorado is a large underdog at this home game.
-1-loss North Carolina State @ undefeated Syracuse: The Orange are the only team in the ACC undefeated besides Syracuse. It will be interesting to see how they look vs. North Carolina State vs. how Clemson did. Syracuse and Clemson are in the same division.
-1-loss Minnesota @ 1-loss Illinois: Two of the most likely teams to win the Big Ten west.
-Undefeated Clemson @ Florida State: Clemson is the ACC's best hope at the CFP, but they are only a 4 point favorite in this game. With 2 conference losses already, a win would not put Florida State in position to win the the division without more help, but would at least give them a chance.
Undefeated USC @ Utah: Utah is out of the playoff bowl race with their 2nd loss last week, but they are favorites in this game and they need it to stay in the PAC-12 race. USC keeps winning, but hasn't quite looked the part expected this year. This would be a chance to show they should be in the CFP.
-1-loss Kansas @ Oklahoma: I was surprised to see the Sooners a touchdown favorite here. That I am typing that shows just how this year has gone in the Big 12.
-1 loss Mississippi State @ Kentucky: This looked last week like it would be a battle of 1-loss teams before Kentucky surprise loss to South Carolina. Mississippi State has a loss to LSU, but beat Texas A&M handily. With slip-ups from Alabama, Mississippi State might be a dark horse to win the division (although Ole Miss is more likely).
1-loss North Carolina @ Duke: This basketball rivalry matters somewhat. North Carolina is favored in their division, but that might end if they lose on the road here.
1-loss San Jose State @ Fresno State: San Jose State is the last 1-loss Mountain West team and probably the conference's last hope at the NY6 (outside a lot of chaos). They go on the road as a 7 point favorite.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 2, Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 3, PAC-12: 2, SEC: 4, Sun Belt: 2, total: 15
Clemson
Oklahoma State
Syracuse
Michigan
Ohio State
Penn State
Texas Christian
Southern California
UCLA
Georgia
Tennessee
Alabama
Mississippi
Coastal Carolina
(James Madison)
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 3, American: 3, Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 2, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 1, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 1, total: 15
Wake Forest
North Carolina
Cincinnati
Tulane
Central Florida
Kansas State
Illinois
San Jose State
Oregon
Mississippi State
South Alabama
Liberty
North Carolina State
Minnesota
Kansas
Remaining Winless Teams: Mountain West: 0, PAC-12: 1, total: 1
Colorado
