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Iowa is coming off a 17-12 win over Northwestern. Iowa finally got some offense going, but scored only 17 while Northwestern on defense has given up an average of 26 ppg, so Iowa still scored well below the average for a Northwestern opponent.
Alex Padilla replaced Spencer Petras on the 4th series, and was 18/28, 172 yds, 0 TDs, 0 Ints.

Minnesota was defeated at home by a seemingly improving Illinois team. Tanner Morgan was 15/27,  180 yds., 0 TDs, 2 Ints.

Iowa has given up and average 15.67 ppg, while scoring 24.4 ppg.

Minnesota has given up an average 18.33 ppg, while scoring 25.9 ppg

It would seem Iowa should be favored at home by 3-6 points. I have not seen a betting line. The outcome may depend on (a) whether the Iowa defense forces turnovers, and (b) whether Alex Padilla either takes over the starting QB job, or is allowed to play extensively. Padilla is more mobile, although he didn't use his mobility much. Padilla appears to pick out open receivers more quickly, and releases the ball earlier, and quicker than Petras. Given the O-Line weaknesses, it seems like Padilla should take over the QB position, or at least play the vast majority of snaps. (Petras can throw long, not sure about Padilla).

What do you have to say for this one?

Kirk Ferentz kind of let it leak that Spencer Petras was banged up against Wisc and the plan all along was if Petras was ineffective early against NW, he would get pulled for Padilla.

I don't know if I buy all that,  but it was clear once Padilla entered the game,  the offense seemed to be much more energized.  The Iowa offense turtled in the 2nd half partly due to conservative play calls including several running plays called on 3rd and long. 

The concern is that kirk ferentz will go back to Petras once he is declared healthy,  but the players and fans have already decided its time to switch to Padilla.  Once you lose the players,  its bad news.

You have to empathize with Petras a little.  The guy did win 12 games in a row as a starter without the benefit of spring training his first year starting.  He deserves some credit.  But even Spencer Rattler found out no job is safe once your team starts to struggle.  But this is now Petras 2nd year starting and he has never thrown an accurate ball and is not especially mobile.  But he does have a stronger arm and is taller than Padilla.  Petras potential ceiling has always been higher,  but maybe his time has run out.

In this game it would help if Iowa gets out to a two-score lead which would help take Minnesota's running game, away. 

if i was a betting person I would bet the house and the neighbors house on Iowa.  the offense in MN is a complete mess and it does not look like it will be fixed anytime soon 

if i was a betting person I would bet the house and the neighbors house on Iowa.  the offense in MN is a complete mess and it does not look like it will be fixed anytime soon

well, the Hawk's offense is excited about a fresh QB that put 17 on Northwestern

In this game it would help if Iowa gets out to a two-score lead which would help take Minnesota's running game, away.

I'm not sure a 4 score lead will take the Gooophers out of their run game
it's what they do

If the Gophers hold onto the ball and keep other stupid mistakes to a minimum, they can win this thing. 

Even in the losses, the D has been playing very well. Anytime you hold a team to 14 points you've put your team in a position to win. Against Illinois, after the first two series, they put them out of business. 

Sanford, Morgan, et al. MUST be ready to take whatever they are given. If Sanford calls for runs off guard every first down (like he did in the BG and Illinois losses), it's going to be a long afternoon. 

Punt coverage will also be important. Make Iowa go 85+ yards every time, and they can't do it.

I'm not expecting that Floyd will be making his first trip home from Mordor since 1999, but stranger things have happened.