| Nebraska is getting close. The offense seems to be there, the defense just needs to catch up. It's unclear how a team and a program that has never gone through anything like this before will respond to the way they dropped last week's game. Will they take it as a positive as to how close they are getting, or is it one more gut punch in a season where they are entering the second half winless? The answer to that question will likely determine how this game goes. I'm also for now going to assume Shannon Brooks is playing? He was expected to be healthy this week, and bolster a Minnesota offense that sorely needs him, but was arrested last week for misdemeanor domestic assault against his male roommate. The way P.J. Fleck laid out the situation sure sounded like he was laying the groundwork for him to play. He noted he was back with the team, that there were no injuries, there have been no charges, and the victim was a male roomate, not a female. If you can pair him with freshman Mohamed Ibrahim, you really have a very dangerous backfield, and can run an offense more like what Fleck wants to ideally run, rather than one where Zack Annexstad is throwing the ball 30 plus times per game, as he had the previous two weeks. Ibrahim had 62 carries on 4.8 ypc two weeks ago against a very stout Iowa run defense, then had career bests 157 yards and 2 touchdowns last week against Ohio State, doing so on nearly 7 yards per carry. Now he gets to run on a Nebraska front that ranks 3rd worst in the Big Ten in run defense both by 218.8 ypg allowed and 5.7 ypc allowed. Their stats look that bad through 4 games, where one is Northwestern's inept ground game. And yes, before you start thinking Nebraska's run defense has turned a corner, Northwestern, and their 2.0 ypc in conference play is horrifically bad. Indiana (2.9 ypc) is the only other school under 3.5. Sitting there also at just 3.5 is Minnesota, so the continued development of Ibrahim, and the return of Brooks is very welcomed for an offense that is more dependent on the pass than any Minnesota team I can recall. Maybe back to the Cory Sauter days in the mid-90s. The Huskers continue to have no problems offensively. In this current 10 game losing streak, Nebraska has scored at least 28 points 4 times. The problem is 10 of their last 11 Big Ten opponents have scored at least 31. The one that didn't? Nebraska's lone win in that stretch. I do know Frost wants his team to be more efficient running the ball. At 4.6 ypc, his offense is even yet clicking at full pace. Last year, his UCF team was #18 in the nation at 5.2 ypc. May not seem like a huge difference, but 4.6 is fairly average, 5.2 is top 15%. A lot of that production needs to come from Martinez, who was supposed to be more of a running threat this year. His passing ability, aided by a WR group that some thought might be the best in the conference, is ahead of where I expected it at this point, but his running hasn't been nearly consistent enough. He showed it big time against Colorado, but aside from that he's totalled just 173 yards (43.3 ypg) on just 3.4 ypc. I expect more of that this week against a Gopher defense that is really struggling against the pass, allowing a Big Ten worst 68% opponents completion percentage, just 1 interception, and an 8.7 ypa that ranks 13th. They've allowed a 300 yard passer and a 400 yard passer over the past two weeks. Nebraska is going to get a Big Ten win this year, and this seems like the second safest best after Illinois, I'm just nervous about the fragility of the program right now, and how they respond after the way last week ended. And Minnesota looked pretty good, particularly running the ball, and now add Brooks back to the mix likely. They played well enough to beat most teams not named Ohio State last week. |
