| Goodbye positive non-conference vibes, hello shootouts. The Gopher defense that allowed only 9.0 ppg in non-conference play, getting Minnesota to 3-0, has completely disappeared in league play. How bad is it? If Ohio State puts up only the 42.7 points that they have averaged through 3 Big Ten games, Minnesota's scoring defense numbers will actually improve. Yes, they lost their best defensive player with the season ending injury to Antoine Winfield Jr., but the problems run deeper than that. To start with the offense needs to help. Yes, they scored a bunch against Iowa, but the turnovers continue to put their defense in bad spots. In just two Big Ten games Minnesota has already turned the ball over 7 times, that's a full additional turnover per game more than the next worst (Iowa and Michigan State each with 2.5). However those 7 turnovers have only led to 17 points, and one was direct on a pick six by Maryland. So while it's easy to point at the turnovers, they haven't been as costly as they could be. What's clear is that P.J. Fleck plans to let Zack Annexstad throw the ball far more than anyone expected he would. Part of that is a product of being behind, but I still don't think anyone thought he'd have thrown the ball 68 times over the past two weeks. He looks ok for a freshman with limited weapons at his disposal, but still not nearly well enough to be throwing it that often, particularly as inconsistent as he is, with a Big Ten worst 47.1% completion percentage in conference play to go with a league high 6 interceptions. They don't have a ton of choice though, averaging only 2.5 ypc running, for 90.0 ypg, both second worst in the Big Ten. While Ohio State's secondary seems vulnerable to the big play, in conference play they are also holding opponents to a league best 47.7% completion rate, for only 6.1 ypa, second only to Michigan. So for all the hand wringing about the Ohio State defense, even the worst part of it is still playing pretty damn well. Offensively there are no questions about Ohio State, they are firing on all cylinders across the board. Their run game could stand to improve against better opposition, but that's quibbling. Minnesota does have a guy who can create some havoc in Carter Coughlin, who already has 5 sacks on the season. Ohio State needs to account for him, but without Winfield, I'm not sure who else they need to. At this point it's tough to say where Ohio State's head is at. They slept walked through most of last week, but as I pointed out last week, they have consistently done that in the week following big midseason wins under Meyer. So is that all it was, or is this team just going to struggle to get up for these types of games. If we get the A version of the Buckeyes picking it to only be a 24 point win is going to be laughable. |
