| One downside in putting "big" games late in the year is handing one of your best teams a critical late loss. Another one is this, one team being so disappointing that the game is very underwhelming by the time it rolls around. The series has benefited greatly in recent years based on one or both teams having a false early season boost, that would have leveled out had they instead met on the third Saturday in November, as they are this year. Michigan has wins over #24 Michigan State in 2018, #11 in 2005, and #14 in 1997, with those Spartan teams winding up unranked, and in 2005's case, below .500. Michigan State has wins over #7 Michigan in 2017, #23 in 2013, #11 in 2011, #18 in 2010, and #22 in 2009, all of which finished unranked. So while this game feels like lower stakes, those are 8 cases in the past 20 years where the hype was simply misplaced early October hype, and would have looked a lot like this by November 16. In late September, we had no idea how Michigan's struggling offense would move the ball against Michigan State's elite defense. Well, something clicked and Michigan's offense is rolling now, while Michigan State's defense has cratered. As bad as the four previous games had been, Indiana, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Penn State had offenses that were excusable to the extent that we still thought the Spartan defense was at least fine. Giving up 27 4th quarter points last week to Illinois puts an end to that talk. Going into the 4th quarter, MSU had a 99.6% chance to win. Well, we saw the 1 in 250 time that doesn't happen. Michigan State is still strong against the run, but too many big plays, too many mistakes, and too many penalties have made the entire side of the ball a liability. The Illini ran for just 1.3 ypc, and Brandon Peters completed barely 50% of his passes, with a sub-50 QBR. But Illinois had scoring plays of 46, 83 and 76 yards, MSU had 4 turnovers, and the winning Illinois touchdown pass came after an unnecessary pass interference call that allowed the drive to continue. Michigan will get Michigan State's best shot most of the time, but I'm not sure they've played against this lame duck of a Spartan team since 2002, and that ended 49-3. The key to the Michigan offense appears to be Hassan Haskins, who had 14 combined carries over Michigan's first 5 games, has gotten 58 over their past 4. That has coincided with Zach Charbonnet having 3 of his 4 best games by ypc, and Shea Patterson having 4 of his 5 highest QBRs of the season. The Michigan defense, after being questioned following the Madison disaster, is right back where they need to be, and are quietly up to #2 in total defense in conference games, at 4.3, trailing only Ohio State. The Michigan State offense got some things working last week, by finally being able to run the ball, and a very effective first half Lewerke. Couple problems with that being, (1) I think Illinois banged up front seven was just that bad, because I doubt Michigan State's offensive line figured out how to run block in Week 11, and (2) Brian Lewerke regressed back into who he's been too often this year. Without Darrell Stewart or Jalen Nailor to stretch the field vertically there is no way Michigan State establishes any sort of run game here. Without starting tight end Matt Dotson, Michigan State loses another threat in the pass game, but Dotson is a horrible run blocker, so they should get better blocking from the position. But, again, to win against Michigan you have to be able to at least threaten downfield, against what has been an underperforming secondary, relative to the rest of the defense. Michigan State will probably punch, 2002 aside they always do in this game, but I'm seeing a game much like last year, where the Wolverines win by a couple scores, but it doesn't even feel that close. |
