| You take probably the two most schitzo teams in the conference, then add in the events of the past couple days, and I have zero idea what to expect here. At their best Michigan State has a pair of wins over ranked teams, and completely shut down a Purdue offense that lit up Ohio State. At their worst, they lost at home to Northwestern, and looked completely inept against Michigan. Maryland has a neutral field win over Texas, and three dominant Big Ten wins. At their worst, they have three blowout losses, including one to Temple. Then you mix in the past week. There is certainly some level of fracture among the team, but its unclear just how much, how much is misreported, but how much is out there unreported. Is the fracture better with Durkin gone than if Durkin had been coaching? There's no way of knowing. What has been surprisingly steady, particularly in the absence of Durkin, has been the Maryland defense. The Terps are third in the conference in total defense, particularly stingy against the pass, leading the conference with 10 interceptions, and their opponents completion percentage (45.9%), yards allowed per attempt (6.2), yards allowed per game (163.6), and defensive pass efficiency (99.9) are second across the board to only Michigan. Yes, the Rutgers game helps, but they also held Nate Stanley to just 86 yards on 11-22 passing. Michigan State has been absolutely awful running the ball all year. Every single offensive line starter has missed some time, and L.J. Scott is only now returning. But the problems there began before the injuries. At times, even now without their top two wide receivers, Michigan State has had enough of a passing game to get by. Even without Brian Lewerke last week, Rocky Lombardi stepped in, and the passing game actually improved. Maryland isn't anything near Michigan up front, but the Wolverines were able to stymie Michigan State with just four guys, and their secondary gave the Spartan receivers no breathing room. Lewerke found no windows. Michigan State's passing attack is not predicated on a bunch of timing routes, and hitting windows, they have longer developing plays. This is probably the best secondary Michigan State has faced all season aside from Michigan, and if the Terps can force the same small windows, the Spartans offense will not move the ball. This really probably comes down to strength on strength. Maryland is picking up 6.8 ypc on the ground, best in the Big Ten. Michigan State is only allowing 3.2, second best, while allowing a league low 4 rushing touchdowns. If Maryland can stay ahead of the sticks, and use play action effectively, they should have just enough offense. If the Spartans front can win first down, and force Kasim Hill into some obvious passing downs, Michigan State should be in good field position all day. That's been the story in the short history as conference foes. In 2014, Michigan State held Maryland to 0.4 ypc, and C.J. Brown was forced to throw a career high 43 passes in a 37-15 loss. In 2015, Michigan State held Maryland to 2.9 ypc, and Perry Hills was forced to throw a career high 30 passes in a 24-7 loss. Last year, Michigan State held Maryland to 2.7 ypc, and Max Bortenschlager was forced to throw 25 passes in a snowstorm in a 17-7 loss. But in Maryland's lone win, in 2016, they ran for nearly 6 ypc, and had two backs go over 100 yards. As far as Xs and Os go, whoever wins that battle between Maryland's run game and Michigan State's run defense should win the game. But it's college football, and it's hard to ignore the emotions on Maryland's side coming into this game. Will they be galvanized or splintered? That might be the most important question. |
