You can actually just pick this game based on whether MSU is good or not. The last time Michigan beat a Michigan State team that finished with fewer than 6 losses? 2003, when MSU was a stellar 8-5.
Since then, over 18 seasons, MSU has finished with 5 or fewer losses exactly half the time.
When MSU has 5 or fewer losses: MSU 9-0
When MSU has 6 or more losses: UM 8-1
MSU would need QUITE the turnaround to finish with fewer than 6 losses