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Last year MSU had this game won, on the road, looking to get to 4-0, and gave up a 42 yard TD pass with 1:28 to go.

Outgained BC by about 100 yards, but -3 in TO due to 3 Aidan Chiles picks.

MSU needs to be able to control the line of scrimmage.  They didn't last year, but BC lost 3 OL to the NFL.  While they beat Fordham 66-10, they ran for just 97 yards on 2.5 carries...against a bad FCS team.  Their longest run was a 9 yard scramble by their backup QB in garbage time.

It's early to call it a "must win", but it's tough to find a path to a bowl if MSU loses this one.  I'm just in, I'll believe it when I see it with Chiles

Boston College 28, Michigan State 27

I like MSU in this one - 27-17 or so.

It all comes down to whether MSU can control the line with 4.  I think their secondary is still bad, so they need to get pressure dropping 7.  BC's line struggled against Fordham.  I like MSU's middle, I think they can stop the run, I just don't know if they can get pressure if BC throws the ball 40+ times.

I don't think BC will be efficient passing, they might be like 22-42, but that might also go for 300+ yards.  Which, if they limit turnovers, and sacks, might be ok.  If MSU can actually get pressure with 4, and not just stop the run, then I think they win.