This week is a tad more rushed than I wanted it to be.
Teams with 1st Loss Week 7:
North Texas
Oregon
Oklahoma
Missouri
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 7:
Louisiana Tech
Fresno State
Illinois
Michigan
Arizona
Arizona State
Iowa State
Maryland
Texas Christian
Old Dominion
Teams with 1st Win Week 7:
none
Percent of Teams with 1st loss of the Season:
Week 0/1: 36.0% (49 of 136)
Week 2: 36.8% (32 of 87)
Week 3: 29.1% (16 of 55)
Week 4: 23.1% (9 of 39)
Week 5: 33.3% (10 of 30)
Week 6: 25% (5 of 20)
Week 7: 26.7% (4 of 15)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
8 (6 if assume no more than one conference winner): No changes from last week. If I figured it right, we can theoretically have two undefeated teams after conference championship games in the SEC and ACC. In the SEC, we could have Alabama (1 non conference loss) beat out one of Texas A&M or Ole Miss if tie breakers work right. It works similar in the ACC with Virginia possibly taking a spot over one of an unbeaten Georgia Tech or Miami (again depending on tie breakers). That leaves us the possibility of one undefeated in each of the Big Ten, Big 12, American, and Mountain West and two in the SEC and ACC.
Week 7 Thoughts:
-Last year, for the playoff we saw all 1-loss teams from power 4 conferences taken. For two loss teams, all were taken from the SEC, the Big Ten didn't have any, the ACC saw 2-loss SMU taken, but not 2-loss Miami, and the Big 12 did not have 2-loss BYU taken.
We are starting to get preseason/early high ranked teams with three losses. Last year we did not see a 3 loss team picked as an at large at all, but Alabama was close to getting in over SMU. For the most part, teams with three losses now are likely done, but there is probably a bit better than a fifty fifty chance we do get one or two three loss teams in. They will need help and will have to have had a difficult schedule with good wins, but, while I am mostly going to write them off for now, they are not completely dead yet.
-In the ACC, we did see Florida State suffer its third loss. This was again a conference loss which throws them out of the conference race and likely out of the playoff regardless. The Alabama win looks better and better, but even still I think it would take a ton to put them back in. Miami and Virginia were both off this week while Georgia Tech stayed undefeated vs. Virginia Tech. They have a bigger game coming up with Duke this week than most realize.
-The Big 12 had a theme last week of late games of Utah teams vs. Arizona teams. The Utah teams both prevailed with BYU coming back and beating Arizona to stay unbeaten and with Utah beating Arizona State. The two play each other this week. Utah enters the rankings along with Cincinnati (who beat UCF) while Iowa State will leave them after a loss to Colorado. Texas Tech still looks like the class of the conference, but the championship game is still pretty wide open.
-The Big Ten had probably the most meaningful week of the power 4 conferences this week. Indiana beat Oregon on the road and is now the 2nd most likely to win the whole conference. Indiana has only won 2 Big Ten titles ever with the last being co-champs with three other teams in 1967. That they would be competing again after the Big Ten added a whole host of power teams is a bit surreal, but here we are. I personally don't think they go undefeated from here, but they don't play Ohio State and the at Penn State game (while still daunting), is not what it looked like before. On Penn State, losing a 3rd game in a row and a 2nd in row as a massive favorite (combined with failure in big games over years) proved too much and Franklin is gone. I will be interested in seeing how Penn State performs from here. We have seen coaching changes ignite teams for the rest of the year and the lions still have Ohio State and Indiana on the schedule. Out west, we saw USC beat Michigan. This does give USC the 4th best odds to win the conference (although Michigan is still just slightly behind).
-In the SEC, Alabama won on the road at previously undefeated Mizzou keeping their place atop the conference. Texas kept themselves in the conference race with a dominating win over Oklahoma. The other ranked teams managed to hold onto to wins in several close games. Texas A&M and Ole Miss remain the conference's two unbeaten teams.
-Among the PAC-12 left behinds, we have seen two very different directions. Oregon State is still winless and just fired their coach. Washington State was actually very much in the Ole Miss game till the end.
-Notre Dame beat North Carolina State to stay in the playoff race. They have a big game with USC next week that they must win for the playoff.
-Group of 5 Playoff Spot: South Florida killed previously unbeaten North Texas. Memphis and South Florida are the only ranked teams from Group of 5 conferences right now and the American is even having the luck of Navy staying undefeated (unlikely to make it, but one more option if things go crazy). Meanwhile, UNLV hasn't often looked pretty, but they did win again this week to keep them the only non-American undefeated team. The Mountain West also has one other one loss team in San Diego State. I think them or 2-loss Boise State aren't completely out of it, but they need a ton of help from the American they haven't been getting. The best chances for a non-American team after that is probably 1-loss James Madison in the Sun Belt. They do have Washington State later in the season which could be a half decent win. From Conference USA, 1-loss Western Kentucky would have to win out including a win against LSU.
Week 8 Thoughts:
-There are no games between undefeated teams this week, but we do have 3 games between an undefeated team and a 1-loss team and 3 games between 1-loss teams.
1-loss Louisville at undefeated Miami (Friday): Miami is #2 in the country, but Louisville's only loss was a close one to ranked Virginia. They still have playoff/ACC Championship hopes, but have to win this one as a two touchdown underdog.
Undefeated Ole Miss at 1-loss Georgia: Ole Miss is one of two unbeaten in the SEC. They had a surprisingly close game vs. Washington State this week, but pulled it out and might have been looking ahead. Georgia doesn't seem to be quite the team it was a few years ago, but only loss is to Alabama and winning this will immediately get them talking about a rematch in Atlanta.
1-loss Utah at undefeated BYU: The holy war. Utah already has a loss to Texas Tech and might not be able to afford another for either their playoff or Big 12 hopes. BYU managed a close win last week to stay unbeaten and wants to keep control of their destiny for the Big 12 Championship. The Utes are 3.5 point favorites in a series they have lately been the better ones in (but not last year).
1-loss LSU at 1-loss Vanderbilt: Vandy is a small home favorite here. With both teams having a conference loss, this game might be necessary to get to Atlanta.
1-loss Tennessee at 1-loss Alabama: Tennessee has finally flipped the script in recent years, but they are an 8.5 point underdog against an Alabama team who has looked better as the season progresses. Tennessee is likely out of the SEC race with a loss.
Florida International at 1-loss Western Kentucky (Tuesday): Western Kentucky is the last Conference USA team with only 1-loss and is a 10.5 point favorite here.
UTEP at winless Sam Houston (Wednesday): Sam Houston is a 2.5 point underdog looking for their first win.
1-loss Nebraska at Minnesota (Friday): Nebraska is ranked and can quietly keep moving up with a road Friday win. If they and USC keep winning, they have a huge game set-up two weeks after this one.
Undefeated Georgia Tech at Duke: Georgia Tech is one of two unbeatens in the ACC, are approaching the top 10, and are small underdogs in this road match-up. The ACC very much wants Georgia Tech to win.
Arizona at 1-loss Houston: Houston's only loss was to Texas Tech. They are a small favorite for it to stay that way and to keep them in the Big 12 race. Arizona lost a heartbreak to BYU last week.
1-loss Oklahoma at South Carolina: Oklahoma is still ranked and still looking for a playoff spot after the disappointing loss to Texas last week. They are a 5.5 road favorite against a South Carolina team who has disappointed some this year.
Undefeated Ohio State at Wisconsin: I was going to skip writing on this one because of the line, but Luke Fickle is very much on the hot seat and playing the team he was an assistant at under both Tressel and Meyer and one year head coach for after Tressel's departure.
Undefeated Texas A&M at Arkansas: The Aggies are a 7.5 point favorite. They are one of two SEC undefeated teams. Arkansas needs to start to get some wins for bowl eligibility.
Undefeated UNLV at Boise State: The winner of this will be the favorite to win the Mountain West. Boise State is a 10.5 point favorite, but given they have two losses and one was to one of the leaders in the American, the Mountain West will be much better to have UNLV win this and then win out. The conference's best chance by far is to have UNLV finish undefeated. Beyond that, UNLV will still be in the conference next year and Boise State will be in the PAC-12. Boise would love to leave the champs.
Old Dominion at 1-loss James Madison: James Madison is the last 1-loss in the Sun Belt and the conference's best hope to squeeze into the playoff should chaos erupt. They need to win this game to stay there though and are a 2.5 point favorite.
Undefeated Texas Tech at Arizona State: Texas Tech is this years favorite to win the Big 12 and they are playing against last years champs. Texas Tech is a 12.5 point road favorite.
1-loss Oregon at Rutgers: Oregon is a big favorite, but I mention it because this is a cross country trip, against a team they should beat, a week after a major home loss (which is what we saw kill Penn State).
Washington State at 1-loss Virginia: Virginia remains in the ACC race with a favorable schedule. Washington State gave Ole Miss all it could handle last week. Virginia is still a big favorite.
Penn State at Iowa: This will probably tell a lot about how Penn State will look the rest of the year. Iowa is coming off a huge win against Wisconsin.
1-loss USC at Notre Dame: Notre Dame keeps winning since its 2 start of the year close losses. They cannot afford a single slip-up for the playoff though and USC beat Michigan last week. If USC wins, they jump more up the polls and will be considered a bigger threat for the Big Ten championship. The Irish are a 8.5 point favorites.
1-loss Missouri at Auburn: Auburn has had several very close losses. This season wasn't far from being very different for them. On the flip side, Mizzou would go from undefeated to having two losses and having no margin for error the rest of the way with another loss. Missouri is a 1.5 point favorite.
Lafayette at winless Oregon State: Oregon State fired their coach, but are playing an FCS team this week in what has to be their best chance at a win.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 2, American: 2, Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 2, Mountain West: 1, SEC: 2, total: 11
Georgia Tech
Miami (FL)
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
Indiana
Ohio State
Memphis
Brigham Young
UNLV
Mississippi
Navy
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 2, American: 3, Big 12: 3, Big Ten: 4, Conference USA: 1, Mountain West: 1, SEC: 6, Sun Belt: 1, total: 21
Virginia
Tulane
South Florida
Cincinnati
Utah
Southern California
Nebraska
Washington
Western Kentucky
San Diego State
Alabama
Georgia
Louisiana State
Tennessee
James Madison
Vanderbilt
Houston
Oregon
Oklahoma
Remaining Winless Teams: Conference USA: 1, MAC:1, PAC-12: 1, total: 3
Sam Houston
Oregon State
Massachusetts
