Both teams have two cupcake wins, a less than impressive win over a bottom tier P4 team, and then a loss to a better team in their conference opener.
Nebraska hung with Michigan, but couldn't stop the run. MSU's offense has been improved, but lost 2 starting OL last week, so we'll see if they can take advantage in the trenches, because Nebraska is leading the nation in yards per passing attempt allowed and opponent passer rating.
MSU is outside the top 100 in both. However Aidan Chiles is #2 in the Big Ten, behind just Demond Williams, in terms of win probability added when he runs the ball. Railoa is not nearly as mobile, but MSU's back seven has done nothing to make me think they can slow any decent to better QB down.
Nebraska 34, Michigan State 23
