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Topic: #2 Michigan (9-0, 13-0) vs #16 Iowa (7-2, 10-3) Post Game

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: #2 Michigan (12-0, 9-0) VS #17 Iowa (10-2, 7-2) - Indianapolis Edition
« Reply #98 on: November 28, 2023, 10:51:07 AM »
Quote from: ELA on November 28, 2023, 10:21:22 AM
I think that was so that Iowa could go to the Rose Bowl.

The committee did some weird things in that final poll that year.  They also jumped MSU up to #3, because I think everyone thought Alabama was the best team, but they had a loss, and Clemson didn't.  So they moved MSU up to #3, so that they could get the de facto 1-4 game in the 2-3 game
I never really thought of it that way.  I thought they were just rewarding CG appearances/wins.  

Ohio State was #7 in the final CFP rankings that year which to this day is the lowest final ranking for Ohio State.  After the CG's:
  • B1GCG winner MSU passed the Iowa team they beat AND an Oklahoma team that didn't have a CG.  
  • B1GCG loser Iowa only dropped one spot, being passed by the MSU team that beat them.  
  • P12CG winner Stanford leap-frogged Ohio State despite beating a decidedly mediocre (barely over .500) USC team in the P12CG and having two losses.  


I read that as:
  • Rewarding teams that win CG's, and
  • Not wanting to punish CG losers for having to play an extra tough game.  

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SuperMario

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Re: #2 Michigan (12-0, 9-0) VS #17 Iowa (10-2, 7-2) - Indianapolis Edition
« Reply #99 on: November 28, 2023, 10:53:20 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 28, 2023, 10:08:43 AM
Might depend on scores too but you never know what the committee is going to do. 

Their 2015 ranking with 12-1 Iowa ahead of 11-1 Ohio State was pretty clearly based more on "deserve" than "best".  As I see it the arguments would be:
  • Iowa deserves it, they went to their CG. 
  • Ohio State is the better team by all appearances. 

If they lean toward "deserve" rather than "appear" then Ohio State isn't in the discussion, it is between any available 1-loss CG losers. 

If they lean toward appearances then since losing their QB FSU barely beat a sub .500 SEC team and LOST to a 2-loss Louisville.  Similarly, Washington hasn't been impressive all year long.  Ohio State appears much better than those two. 
But the terrible structure of the B1G doesn’t prove they don’t deserve to be in the conversation. The have wins over PSU, Notre Dame and a pretty well fought game against the #2 or #1 team in the country. A loss by Washington and FSU and OSU deserves to be there unless the Washington loss is down to the wire and a last second loss. Then I can see the argument that they did also beat the team the lost to in the CCG.

now if Georgia loses then throw all that out the window.

look what you’ve done. You’re making me defend OSU. 
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FearlessF

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Re: #2 Michigan (12-0, 9-0) VS #17 Iowa (10-2, 7-2) - Indianapolis Edition
« Reply #100 on: November 28, 2023, 10:54:43 AM »
the committee does weird things
I'll wait a week
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847badgerfan

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Re: #2 Michigan (12-0, 9-0) VS #17 Iowa (10-2, 7-2) - Indianapolis Edition
« Reply #101 on: November 28, 2023, 11:03:32 AM »
Quote from: SuperMario on November 28, 2023, 10:53:20 AM
look what you’ve done. You’re making me defend OSU.
It's called having kids and getting soft.

Wait until the grandkids come. You'll be cheering for OSU.
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SuperMario

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Re: #2 Michigan (12-0, 9-0) VS #17 Iowa (10-2, 7-2) - Indianapolis Edition
« Reply #102 on: November 28, 2023, 11:16:04 AM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 28, 2023, 11:03:32 AM
It's called having kids and getting soft.

Wait until the grandkids come. You'll be cheering for OSU.
Haha. Let’s not get crazy now.

they and health have put a lot into perspective. The only thing that has kept me a little passionate about sports and the rivalry is my oldest, 7, absolutely loves Michigan football. The last 3 years she has asked to make a video and send it to my best friend that lives in western Ohio. Her video is brief every year.. hi uncle Brent. “Go Blue. Ohio state.. booooo”

she screamed and jumped into my arms during the last interception. It’s moments like that the keep sports special. And also keep my memory sharp enough not to root for that team down south 
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: #2 Michigan (12-0, 9-0) VS #17 Iowa (10-2, 7-2) - Indianapolis Edition
« Reply #103 on: November 28, 2023, 11:17:39 AM »
Quote from: SuperMario on November 28, 2023, 10:53:20 AM
But the terrible structure of the B1G doesn’t prove they don’t deserve to be in the conversation. The have wins over PSU, Notre Dame and a pretty well fought game against the #2 or #1 team in the country. A loss by Washington and FSU and OSU deserves to be there unless the Washington loss is down to the wire and a last second loss. Then I can see the argument that they did also beat the team the lost to in the CCG.

now if Georgia loses then throw all that out the window.

look what you’ve done. You’re making me defend OSU.
LoL. 

I'm more talking about what I think they *WILL* do rather than what I as an individual think they *SHOULD* do. 

I brought up the 2015 example because I think that one was pretty clear-cut.  I don't think more than a trivial amount of people actually thought that 12-1 Iowa was better than 11-1 Ohio State so that makes it pretty clear that the committee valued "deserve" over "better" and felt that Iowa was more deserving because they went to the CG.  If they follow that precedent then Ohio State doesn't even have a mathematical shot because UGA/M/FSU/UW would all be ahead of them EVEN with losses in their CG's. 

Even if all of this possibility is actually there, Ohio State would still need wins by Louisville (2.5 point dog) and OkSU (15 point dog) so the whole discussion feels academic. 

At the end of the day, there is a lot of luck involved in winning an NC.  Some of that is what kind of seasons other teams have.  1973 is a great example of Ohio State and Michigan having bad luck there.  They tied in Ann Arbor and both finished 10-0-1.  Ohio State was #2 in the final poll and Michigan was #6.  The National Champion was Notre Dame who had a much closer game against USC in South Bend than Ohio State had against USC in Pasadena.  My point here is that if Ohio State and Michigan had had those teams sequentially in 1972 and 1973 or 1973 and 1974 there is a decent chance that both would have won NC's.  They didn't, tied each other, and neither won an NC. 

The luck angle that has me thinking about that is the frustration that the last two years Ohio State had great offenses hampered by mediocre defenses and now this year Ohio State finally has an elite defense but their offense is merely good so here we are.  Either of the last two Ohio State offenses with this Ohio State defense would EASILY be favored to win it all. 
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SuperMario

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Re: #2 Michigan (12-0, 9-0) VS #17 Iowa (10-2, 7-2) - Indianapolis Edition
« Reply #104 on: November 28, 2023, 01:14:18 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 28, 2023, 11:17:39 AM
The luck angle that has me thinking about that is the frustration that the last two years Ohio State had great offenses hampered by mediocre defenses and now this year Ohio State finally has an elite defense but their offense is merely good so here we are.  Either of the last two Ohio State offenses with this Ohio State defense would EASILY be favored to win it all.
I understood your point from the 2015 reference.

I don't think you are giving OSU enough credit on offense to be honest. Yes McCord had to picks. The first was just a heck of a defensive play, by one of the best DBs in the country. The second, McCord was hit as he threw. OSU still had 270 yards passing and over 100 rushing against one of the best defenses in the country.  If there's a criticism, it's more balls should be thrown for Marvin to go make a play. Almost similar to what Henne used to do with Braylon. Just throw it up and let him go get it. He's gonna go and get it. 

I also think OSU has been a little spoiled at QB the last decade. CJ, Fields, Haskins, Barrett, Braxton and Cardale? lol.. It's almost unheard of to have a run that good. Is McCord near that level? Probably not. That being said, it probably backs your statement a bit that the offense is a step back in the most important position.  About time you guys had to watch a less than elite qb. :)
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Mdot21

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Re: #2 Michigan (12-0, 9-0) VS #17 Iowa (10-2, 7-2) - Indianapolis Edition
« Reply #105 on: November 28, 2023, 07:10:51 PM »
if I'm Michigan, I'm just going with the Penn State game plan. Run the ball 65 times and play field position. Only way Iowa can beat you is if you have sloppy ST's disaster plays or the disaster turnover on offense. 
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: #2 Michigan (12-0, 9-0) VS #17 Iowa (10-2, 7-2) - Indianapolis Edition
« Reply #106 on: November 28, 2023, 07:20:27 PM »
Michigan's backups would beat Iowa 12-10.
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LittlePig

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Re: #2 Michigan (12-0, 9-0) VS #17 Iowa (10-2, 7-2) - Indianapolis Edition
« Reply #107 on: November 28, 2023, 08:11:32 PM »
2015 was a weird year for the Big Ten

MD and Rutgers were already  included and Big Ten had already switched to the East-West Divisions,  but still was playing only 8 conference games.

Iowa went 12-0 and 8-0 in the regular season without having to play Ohio St, Mich, PSU or MSU.  But Iowa did beat ranked Wisconsin, which finished 10-3 and  Iowa beat a ranked NW which also finished 10-3

MSU finished 11-1 and 7-1, beating Michigan because MSU returned a fumbled snap by the Michigan punter for a TD on the last play of the game.  MSU then beat OSU on a last second FG.  Then MSU beat Iowa in the CCC by 3 by scoring a TD with less than 2 minutes to play.  MSU just had one of those years where everything went right in the games that mattered.

I think it's how Iowa loss the CCG to MSU is why it got the Rose Bowl.  Losing by 3 in the last 2 minutes.  If they had been blown out,  probably OSU would have got the Rose.  I don't think it was until after the bowls that it was obvious that OSU was a far better team. 

Remember Iowa did not have the awful offense in 2015 that it does today.  Iowa QB C. J.  Beathard actually  finished as 2nd team all Big Ten in 2015,  and remember who Beathard beat out as Iowa's starting QB, Jake Rudock,  who ended up starting for Michigan in 2015.

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Hawkinole

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Re: #2 Michigan (12-0, 9-0) VS #17 Iowa (10-2, 7-2) - Indianapolis Edition
« Reply #108 on: November 29, 2023, 02:09:03 AM »
Quote from: LittlePig on November 28, 2023, 08:11:32 PM
2015 was a weird year for the Big Ten

MD and Rutgers were already  included and Big Ten had already switched to the East-West Divisions,  but still was playing only 8 conference games.

Iowa went 12-0 and 8-0 in the regular season without having to play Ohio St, Mich, PSU or MSU.  But Iowa did beat ranked Wisconsin, which finished 10-3 and  Iowa beat a ranked NW which also finished 10-3

MSU finished 11-1 and 7-1, beating Michigan because MSU returned a fumbled snap by the Michigan punter for a TD on the last play of the game.  MSU then beat OSU on a last second FG.  Then MSU beat Iowa in the CCC by 3 by scoring a TD with less than 2 minutes to play.  MSU just had one of those years where everything went right in the games that mattered.

I think it's how Iowa loss the CCG to MSU is why it got the Rose Bowl.  Losing by 3 in the last 2 minutes.  If they had been blown out,  probably OSU would have got the Rose.  I don't think it was until after the bowls that it was obvious that OSU was a far better team. 

Remember Iowa did not have the awful offense in 2015 that it does today.  Iowa QB C. J.  Beathard actually  finished as 2nd team all Big Ten in 2015,  and remember who Beathard beat out as Iowa's starting QB, Jake Rudock,  who ended up starting for Michigan in 2015.
Drew Ott's season ending injury hurt Iowa against MSU in the Big Ten Conference Championship Game of 2015. We could all see MSU was going to score down the stretch when Iowa was playing a freshman (a very good freshman) for Drew Ott. If Drew Ott had played, I doubt MSU could win. But this thread is not about 2015. It is about how Iowa could win, or more likely lose, to 2023 Michigan and how an Iowa win would screw up playoff qualifications.
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FearlessF

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Re: #2 Michigan (12-0, 9-0) VS #17 Iowa (10-2, 7-2) - Indianapolis Edition
« Reply #109 on: November 29, 2023, 08:33:44 AM »
I didn't see any evidence that the Big Ten commish had disdain for Harbaugh and instructed the officiating crew to favor the Buckeyes

so, I don't expect the Hawkeyes to get any help.  Maybe even some hindrance if they put up a good fight in the 1st half
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MrNubbz

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Re: #2 Michigan (12-0, 9-0) VS #17 Iowa (10-2, 7-2) - Indianapolis Edition
« Reply #110 on: November 29, 2023, 08:37:01 AM »
Quote from: SuperMario on November 28, 2023, 01:14:18 PM
I also think OSU has been a little spoiled at QB the last decade. CJ, Fields, Haskins, Barrett, Braxton and Cardale? lol.. It's almost unheard of to have a run that good. Is McCord near that level? Probably not. That being said, it probably backs your statement a bit that the offense is a step back in the most important position. 
You left out Burrow,he and Haskins URBZ made sit behind Barret
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FearlessF

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Re: #2 Michigan (12-0, 9-0) VS #17 Iowa (10-2, 7-2) - Indianapolis Edition
« Reply #111 on: November 29, 2023, 08:38:16 AM »
spoiled rotten
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