Had a Saturday off to watch a lot more of these which was very nice.
Teams with 1st loss Week 10:
None
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 10:
Georgia Southern
Kentucky
South Florida
Louisiana State
Houston
Teams with 1st win Week 10:
UTEP
Percent of Undefeated Teams with 1st Loss:
Week 0/1: 36.92% (48/130)
Week 2: 34.15% (28/82)
Week 3: 37.04% (20/54)
Week 4: 38.34% (13/34)
Week 5: 33.33% (7 of 21)
Week 6: 21.43% (3 of 14)
Week 7: 27.27% (3 of 11)
Week 8: 37.50% (3 of 8)
Week 9: 20% (1 of 5)
Week 10: 0% (0 of 4)
Maximum possible Undefeated Teams at End of the Regular Season:
4: Notre Dame, UCF, Clemson, Alabama
Week 10 Thoughts:
-Let’s start with UTEP. They won 34-26 at Rice this week. With that win, every FBS team has a win and there are no more remaining winless teams. That ends one of our lists.
-The Sun Belt is now off every list as Georgia Southern losing takes away the conference’s last 1-loss team.
-Two huge games this week in the SEC. While it is barely November, our SEC Championship game next month is now set as Alabama vs. Georgia. If SEC gets two teams in, it will also almost certainly be those two again.
-Well, it took us 10 weeks, but we finally had a week where we did not lose 20-39% of our undefeated teams. None of our remaining 4 lost.
-In the Group of 5 race, we see saw 3 of our 8 undefeated or 1-loss teams lose. The Sun Belt is basically eliminated from even a small chance. The bigger news though was in the American. South Florida losing like was surprising. Houston losing was much more important from my perspective though since that means at least one team entering the conference championship will have at least 2 losses (UAB and Buffalo’s small chances require at least a 2-loss team winning the American in my view; one more loss before a conference championship would probably help a lot more).
Week 11 Thoughts:
-Our undefeated teams play in the following: Mississippi State @ undefeated Alabama, Navy @ undefeated UCF, Florida State @ undefeated Notre Dame, and undefeated Clemson @ Boston College
Most interesting game of those is Clemson @ Boston College. I was a bit quick to write Clemson into the ACC Championship after beating North Carolina State. Had NCU won, they would have already had victories over both and thus a 2-game lead in the division. Boston College had not already played Clemson though and has been steadily improving. They only have 1 ACC loss still and will control the division with a win over Clemson thanks to the tie-breaker.
-Our 1-loss teams play in the followings: Kent State @ 1-loss Buffalo, 1-loss Fresno State @ Boise State, 1-loss Michigan @ Rutgers, Auburn @ 1-loss Georgia, Oklahoma State @ 1-loss Oklahoma, 1-loss Washington State @ Colorado, 1-loss Ohio State @ Michigan State, TCU @ 1-loss West Virginia, South Florida @ 1-loss Cincinnati, San Jose State @ 1-loss Utah State, and Southern Mississippi @ 1-loss UAB
Fresno State @ Boise State: For divisional purposes, next week San Diego State @ Fresno State is bigger, but for the NY6, this is a big close to must win for Fresno State.
Auburn @ Georgia: If Auburn wins this game, less likely Georgia gets into CFP with an SEC Championship (although I would not throw it out).
Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma: The Sooners toughest game until the last week in November with West Virginia (quite possibly first of 2 games in a row then).
Ohio State @ Michigan State: With Michigan’s win over Penn State last week and the Wolverines playing Rutgers and Indiana next, Ohio State is likely the only remaining team with an easy mathematical way to beat the Wolverines for the Big Ten Championship spot. They haven’t been playing well though and this is their toughest game before then.
South Florida @ Cincinnati: Cincinnati, not South Florida, is the one close to in control of their destiny here (will need one more loss from Temple or a 3 way tie they win). The Bearcats destroyed Navy last week and, with a win here, things are set-up for a monster showdown with Central Florida the following week, likely determining which American team will be going to the conference championship game from the east.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 1, American: 1, SEC: 1, independents: 1, total: 4
Clemson
Central Florida
Alabama
Notre Dame
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 0, American: 1, Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 2, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 1, Mountain West: 2, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 1, Sun Belt: 0, independents: 0, total: 11
Michigan
UAB
Utah State
Fresno State
Washington State
Buffalo
Oklahoma
Georgia
West Virginia
Ohio State
Cincinnati
Remaining Winless Teams: Conference USA: 0, total: 0
