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Topic: Maryland (1-1, 3-2) at #15 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Post Game

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Anonymous Coward

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Maryland (1-1, 3-2) at #15 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Post Game
« on: October 02, 2018, 11:00:31 PM »
Time to start this. Durkin's Canada's kids come to the Big House to face the Big Ten's #5 offense (27 nationally) and #1 defense (4 nationally) in S&P+. For its own sake, Maryland brings the #8 offense (76) and #10 defense (50).
The opening spread was something like 17.5, which seemed right.
« Last Edit: October 06, 2018, 08:05:07 PM by ELA »

Anonymous Coward

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Re: (3-1, 1-0) Maryland at #15 (4-1, 2-0) Michigan
« Reply #1 on: October 02, 2018, 11:06:45 PM »
Also, this graphic from the other thread has been updated to include DL ratings and opponent holding rates from 2018 in the 2014-to-now aggregate. And, yes, it's still preposterous:


Again, the conference minus Michigan is clustered with a slope indicating that, on average, better DLs accumulate more opponent holds. (...) Except for the runaway best DL (...) which has the runaway worst opponent hold rate and is chilling not with yellow flags (we want those!) but these red flags over in Andromeda.
Don't jump into conspiracies. It doesn't have to be that. There could be many explanations. I only advocate finding the conference's answer. Confirming/testing whether that answer is reasonable. And getting it fixed fast because this observation is ... concerning.
« Last Edit: October 03, 2018, 12:24:31 AM by Anonymous Coward »

Mdot21

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Re: (3-1, 1-0) Maryland at #15 (4-1, 2-0) Michigan
« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2018, 12:16:25 AM »
Unreal. Michigan is getting shafted. They need to just present this information and raise hell with the B1G offices and Delaney and hopefully it starts to change.

As for this game. I am thinking it will be a lot like Northwestern unfortunately. Closer and uglier than it should be with Michigan pulling a tight one out of their asses.

As Einstein is quoted as saying, "Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

All we've seen from Harbaugh on offense is doing more of the same and hoping the results will be better. Sticking with the same OL line-up. Playing bad players like Sean McKeon or Jon Runyan Jr instead of more talented younger players. Not making needed personnel changes. Calling the same terrible offensive plays. Trying to force a run game inside that isn't there. Throwing it only 22 times a game on average.

Pretty obvious. The guy is insane.

Barely throwing it against Western, SMU, and Nebraska and not benching the tackles for all 3 games was a huge mistake. Huge. Perfect opportunity to work out the kinks in the passing game and try new personnel. Wasted opportunity really.

OSU fan site The Ozone nailed it once again in their weekly Michigan Monday column. https://theozone.net/2018/10/michigan-monday-northwestern/

"It also means that Jim Harbaugh missed an opportunity to work out the kinks with the passing game. They threw the ball just 18 times against both Western Michigan and SMU, which isn’t how you get chemistry going with your quarterback and receivers (tight ends).
That chemistry was missing against Northwestern and would have definitely come in handy in the red zone.

When Michigan hosts Maryland on Saturday, it will mark 23 months since the Wolverines last put up 500 yards of total offense. That’s a span of 22 games without hitting 500 yards. Brady Hoke’s longest stretch was 11 games — and those just happened to be the final 11 games of his Michigan coaching career. Even Rich Rodriguez’s streak was “only” 18 such games.

With Michigan’s defense, it’s not like they need to put up 500 yards of total offense on average, but with their defense, why not be more open to it?
Jim Harbaugh doesn’t have to protect his defense like they are constantly on the brink. They are the brink.
This offense could be so much more, and because Harbaugh doesn’t want it to be, this program will always be limited.
Chase Winovich and Devin Bush aren’t going to be here forever. Don’t waste ’em."

Anonymous Coward

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Re: (3-1, 1-0) Maryland at #15 (4-1, 2-0) Michigan
« Reply #3 on: October 03, 2018, 12:19:08 AM »
I mean. I disagree with the raise hell part. I don't think people who raise hell are taken seriously. Be polite but damn serious that "we have found a concerning peculiarity" and require an explanation that can be tested.
« Last Edit: October 03, 2018, 12:25:08 AM by Anonymous Coward »

Anonymous Coward

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Re: (3-1, 1-0) Maryland at #15 (4-1, 2-0) Michigan
« Reply #4 on: October 03, 2018, 12:28:51 AM »
I agree the passing game is behind schedule though. So far, I've been OK with that in the interest of getting the OL and running game right. And I think that's working. But at some point a developing offense does have to try for prolific. It's a hard step. They won't get there this year. But Harbaugh does have to prep the program to be the type that gets more than zero 500 yard games per year. The defense doesn't require it. Balance does. Back-up plans do.

Mdot21

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Re: (3-1, 1-0) Maryland at #15 (4-1, 2-0) Michigan
« Reply #5 on: October 03, 2018, 12:34:23 AM »
I mean. I disagree with the raise hell part. I don't think people who raise hell are taken seriously. Be polite but damn serious that "we have found a concerning peculiarity" and require an explanation that can be tested.
Disagree. Seems like the only way to get anything done today is to be a complete raging asshole. Donald Trump got himself elected President by raising hell. Bernie Sanders would've been the Dems nominee if he would've been more of a hell raiser. Instead he played too nice and let the Clinton machine F him and smiled while they were f'ing him.
You have to be a mean dick or people will just continue to walk all over you. They need to make it uncomfortable for Delaney and threaten to go public and just be complete nightmare headache pain in the ass to deal with or nothing will happen.

Mdot21

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Re: (3-1, 1-0) Maryland at #15 (4-1, 2-0) Michigan
« Reply #6 on: October 03, 2018, 12:58:37 AM »
sounding like Rashan Gary and Chris Evans will sit this one out.

Also, Harbaugh says freshman Michael Barrett has been moved from Viper/LB on defense to Wide Receiver on offense. Compared him to a guy he coached in San Fransisco- Anquan Boldin.

edit: speaking of Boldin....didn't realize this but the guy has 1,076 catches for over 13,700 yards and 82 TD's. Dang. Lots of receivers in the NFL Hall of Fame with numbers that don't approach that.
« Last Edit: October 03, 2018, 01:01:53 AM by Mdot21 »

TyphonInc

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Re: (3-1, 1-0) Maryland at #15 (4-1, 2-0) Michigan
« Reply #7 on: October 03, 2018, 08:14:55 AM »
Is this chart saying TTUN has had 165 sacks in 3 years? That doesn't seem right.
2015 - M 29 sacks, OSU 45
2016 - M 32 sacks, OSU 38
2017 - M 46 sacks, OSU 28
I'm seeing M with 107
and OSU with 111
Neither approaching what I think this graph is saying.

TyphonInc

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Re: (3-1, 1-0) Maryland at #15 (4-1, 2-0) Michigan
« Reply #8 on: October 03, 2018, 09:04:40 AM »
OSU fan site The Ozone nailed it once again in their weekly Michigan Monday column. https://theozone.net/2018/10/michigan-monday-northwestern/
Some Quotes I loved:
Comparing Northwestern's early lead to a horror movie - 
"Then the insane asylum has a breakout and the rest of the movie is Chase Winovich murdering dudes with a pick axe."
Talking about concerns for M*ch*g*n's other road games - 
"(I would also list the road trip to Rutgers here, but we all know that you throw the records out in rivalry games.)"

Anonymous Coward

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Re: (3-1, 1-0) Maryland at #15 (4-1, 2-0) Michigan
« Reply #9 on: October 03, 2018, 09:23:23 AM »
Is this chart saying TTUN has had 165 sacks in 3 years? That doesn't seem right.
2015 - M 29 sacks, OSU 45
2016 - M 32 sacks, OSU 38
2017 - M 46 sacks, OSU 28
I'm seeing M with 107
and OSU with 111
Neither approaching what I think this graph is saying.
Nope, it's a rating, not a "rate" in the conventional sense (not purely sacks per snap or other event).
From fooball outsiders (which I believe is the primary publisher for S&P+, F/+ and FEI):
"Adjusted Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted version of a team's sack rate -- sacks divided by (sacks plus passes), presented on a scale in which 100 is perfectly average, above 100 is good, below 100 is bad."
« Last Edit: October 03, 2018, 09:27:15 AM by Anonymous Coward »

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: (3-1, 1-0) Maryland at #15 (4-1, 2-0) Michigan
« Reply #10 on: October 03, 2018, 10:09:59 AM »


Who is gonna spend more time bellyaching about the Zebras? McwTerps? Or Michigan fans? 

1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

Anonymous Coward

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Re: (3-1, 1-0) Maryland at #15 (4-1, 2-0) Michigan
« Reply #11 on: October 03, 2018, 10:18:35 AM »
Both?

It does bear mentioning though that usually ref complaints are not accompanied by statistical power to back up the hunch. 
Here the concern is less "ew i have a rando worry" than a blinking bold "hey look at this very loud blinking supporting document confirming the worry and showing how it not only exists but is also more dramatic than expected (even when accumulated over 4.4 years to try to drown out dumb luck)."

Anonymous Coward

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Re: (3-1, 1-0) Maryland at #15 (4-1, 2-0) Michigan
« Reply #12 on: October 03, 2018, 10:27:32 AM »
A. WHAT IT'S NOT
  • It's absurd to think Delany or his office has anything to do with it, imo. 
  • And the odds that it is random chance are also low, given how extreme of an outlier it is (and how this outlier is not in the same direction as the other data would indicate/predict for great DLs).
B. WHAT IT COULD BE
  • A symptom of some nuanced structural detail of Michigan's defense (would appear plausible but somewhat unlikely since 2014 until now spans three different defenses -- Mattison's, Durkin's and Brown's)
  • An enduring consequence of Harbaugh having such bad sideline etiquette in 2015 and 2016 (caveats: 2014 wouldn't be expected to fit this then) (clarification: this idea wouldn't be about cheating but about a bias or distaste that refs - perhaps accidentally - can't shake)
  • AND/OR something no one has thought of yet

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: (3-1, 1-0) Maryland at #15 (4-1, 2-0) Michigan
« Reply #13 on: October 03, 2018, 10:33:45 AM »
So far Michigan fans have taken a commanding lead. 

They appear to be employing the strategy of getting the excuses lined up, just in case they lose the game. 

1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

 

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