Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

This weekend a number of P5 teams can either mathematically or at least effectively clinch their CCG berths.  I'll start at home:

B1G-W:
Division leader Wisconsin travels to Indiana this weekend with a possible chance to effectively clinch the division.  If the Badgers win then the only way they would miss out on the B1GCG is if they lost their last three games (vIA, vM, @MN).  Even then, the Badgers would still go to Indy unless either the UNL/NU winner or Iowa won out.  

B1G-E:
Division leader Ohio State travels to Iowa this weekend with a possible chance to put two games between themselves and their nearest competitor.  If the Buckeyes win and PSU beats MSU then the Buckeyes will effectively have a two-game lead in the East.  

ACC-Atlantic:
4-0 NCST hosts 5-1 Clemson this weekend in a game which will likely decide the division.  

ACC-Coastal:
Division leader Miami (5-0) hosts second place VaTech (3-1) in a game which will likely decide the division.  

B12:
Standings (of contenders) and this weekend's games:

• 4-1 ISU:  @WVU
• 4-1 TCU:  vTexas
• 4-1 OU:  @OkSU
• 4-1 OkSU:  vOU
• 3-2 WVU:  vISU
• 3-2 Texas:  @TCU

This one is a mess and will not be decided this weekend but some clarity could be found with the top six teams all playing each other.  While any of the four 1-loss teams might lose two more games there is almost no chance that all four of them will lose twice more AND that both WVU and Texas will lose once more so, IMHO, KSU (2-3) is effectively eliminated.  Additionally, WVU and Texas (both 3-2) effectively face elimination every weekend.  

What would be really fun to watch is if WVU and Texas both win this weekend.  Then the Bedlam winner would be in first place at 5-1 followed by a five-way tie for second at 4-2 between ISU, TCU, WVU, Texas, and the OU/OkSU loser.  

P12-N:
Stanford (@WSU) and Washington (vOregon) are in danger of looking ahead to their showdown at Stanford next weekend.  If they both win this weekend then their game next weekend is almost certainly for a spot in the P12CG.  

P12-S:
Division leader USC (5-1) hosts second place Arizona (4-1) in a game that will likely decide the P12-S.  

SEC-E:
Division leader Georgia (5-0) hosts second place USC-E (4-2) and can clinch the division if they win and Kentucky (3-2) loses to Ole Miss.  

SEC-W:
Division leader Alabama (5-0) hosts third place LSU (3-1).  It is an elimination game for the Tigers because with a loss they couldn't catch Bama.  

So it's a pretty big weekend. 

Good stuff. 

Big 12 CCG a rematch of OU and ISU

good news for the Big 12 and the sooners

horrible news for the clones

SEC-W:
Division leader Alabama (5-0) hosts third place LSU (3-1).  It is an elimination game for the Tigers because with a loss they couldn't catch Bama.



technically they could. bama could still lose to msu and au, giving bama 2 losses. if au also lost to uga or aTm (giving au 2 losses) and/or msu wins out, giving them only 2 losses, there could be a 3-4 way tie between bama, lsu, au and potentially msu.

not gonna go through the tie breakers to see what would happen in each of those scenarios, though.

I guess it is possible but the SEC tiebreaker does not make much sense to me, link.  
First, in the two-team tie section they have tiebreakers beyond H2H, why?  All the teams in the division play each other so there will always be a H2H winner, no?  H2H is the first tiebreaker and the other seven seem superfluous to me.  
The three (or more) team tiebreaker is:

• H2H...2H
• Divisional record
• Record against the next best team in the division, then the next, then the next, etc
• Overall conference record against non-divisional teams (if Divisional record is tied and the teams are tied then doesn't non-divisional record have to be tied?)
• Combined record against all common non-divisional teams
• Record against the best team in the other division, then the next, etc
• Best cumulative conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents
• Coin flip

Ok, could LSU to catch Bama after a loss to Bama?

The short answer is theoretically yes but practically impossible (even more impossible than you think).  LSU would have H2H losses to potential 6-2 teams Bama and MissSt and a H2H win over Auburn.  

LSU would NOT win the hypothetical 4-way tie with Bama, MissSt, and AU because their H2H2H2H in that group is 1-2.  Thus, the Tigers would need MissSt not to be involved.  

Additionally, LSU would need Auburn's other loss to be to aTm and not Georgia because if AU beat aTm then they would win the 3-way tie based on tiebreaker #2, Divisional record.  

That 3-way tie would then go to tiebreaker #3, record against the next best team in the division.  LSU, Bama, and AU would all be 1-1 against each other and their "other" loss would be:

• Bama:  MissSt
• LSU:  MissSt
• AU:  aTm

That doesn't help LSU because if Auburn is eliminated then LSU is back to the two-team tiebreaker with Bama and they lose that so aTm and MissSt would have to finish with the same record.  

That would move us to tiebreaker #4 which, as I said above, appears to be superfluous.  It is in this case as they would all be 2-0 vs the SEC-E.  

Tiebreakers #5&6 would also be irrelevant for the same reason (all three are 2-0).  

That would get us to tiebreaker #7, cumulative conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents.  As of today, their non-divisional opponent records are:
Bama:

• 0-5 Vandy
• 0-5 Tennessee
• 0-10 total

Auburn:

• 5-0 Georgia
• 0-4 Mizzou
• 5-4 total

LSU:

• 3-3 Florida
• 0-5 Tennessee
• 3-8 total

The only way LSU can win on this tiebreaker is if Florida and Tennessee end up with a better combined SEC record than Georgia and Mizzou.  

List of what has to happen for LSU to win the SEC-W after losing to Bama:

• LSU wins out (vArk, @TN)
• Bama loses out (in conference @MissSt, @AU)
• Auburn loses to aTm, beats UGA and Bama
• MissSt (after beating Bama) loses to either Ark or Ole Miss
• aTm (after beating AU and losing to LSU) finishes with the same SEC record as MissSt
• Florida and Tennessee somehow overtake Georgia and Mizzou in combined final record despite being 4 games behind in the loss column and despite Tennessee losing to LSU.  

Note that LSU can and probably will be mathematically eliminated this weekend because if they lose and AU beats aTm then there is no mathematical way for LSU to get to Atlanta.  

simple answer for first question (why more than h2h with 2 team tie?) is contingency if games are cancelled.

as for the rest of that, i said technically they aren't out with a loss to bama, which is true. also, in most of those scenarios, even if lsu loses those tie breakers, they aren't losing them to bama. so the bama game (aside from throwing them all in a tie) would be largely irrelevant.

in all likelihood, it'd mean the west would come down to the iron bowl, though. unless au loses before then.

FWIW:  I wasn't concerned with whether LSU lost to Bama or Auburn.  My interest was in whether or not LSU was eliminated.  LSU will be eliminated this weekend if they lost and Auburn wins.  If they lose and Auburn wins then there *MIGHT* still be a mathematical possibility for LSU but it would be dependent on a whole bunch of unlikely factors and would ultimately come down to the SEC records of LSU's and AU's SEC-E opponents which doesn't look good for LSU at this point.  

Very nice summary.  

I'm pullin for Arizona, W Virginia, TCU, OSU2, LSU, USCe, Wazzou, and UDub. Bring on the chaos.


Additionally, Go Go Golden Gophers!