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Topic: Is the Big Ten top to bottom the 2nd best conference in America?
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Big Beef Tacosupreme · « **Reply #28 on:** October 03, 2019, 07:09:19 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on October 03, 2019, 04:25:49 PM

Just to clarify, I'm not picking on PSU here and I'm not anti-PSU generally. The same analysis applies to tOSU the last two years with their ugly losses to Iowa and PU. It is what it is.

I feel like fans of teams that have those kinds of losses just don't have much to complain about when their team misses the CFP. My answer to PSU fans who complain about missing the CFP in 2016 is simple: Don't lose two games, don't lose to a mediocre Pitt team, and don't get run out of the stadium by Michigan.

My answer to tOSU fans who complain about missing the CFP in 2017 is similar: Don't get blown out by a mediocre Iowa team.

My answer to tOSU fans who complain about missing the CFP in 2018 is similar: Don't get blown out by a mediocre Purdue team.

My point is that once your team has any blemish but particularly a REALLY ugly blemish (like tOSU the past two years) or two moderately ugly blemishes (like PSU in 2016) then your team has put themselves in a position where they might get passed over.

I’m actually not complaining about PSU in 2016. I’m complaining about the B1G champion being left out when they were the best conference, by far. A conference champ should get in before two teams get in from the same conference.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #29 on:** October 03, 2019, 07:47:21 PM »

Because....reasons?

Big Beef Tacosupreme · « **Reply #30 on:** October 03, 2019, 10:20:18 PM »

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 03, 2019, 07:47:21 PM

Because....reasons?

Because that year the SEC had a grand total of two good teams, Georgia and Alabama. UGA and Bama did not play each other in the regular season. They did not play each other in the conference championship.

Auburn was probably the third best team, but lost to UCF and Clemson out of conference, so it isn't like they were a world beater. They did beat Bama and Georgia.

The SEC, outside of those two programs, was poop. The conference went 1-3 against the B1G, 7-5 against the ACC, 2-2 against the Big 12, and 0-2 against the PAC.

The SEC was weak that year. Bama and Georgia had a cakewalk.

And, yes, I do think OSU would have beaten Bama if they had been given the opportunity.

CWSooner · « **Reply #31 on:** October 03, 2019, 10:36:52 PM »

I think the Committee gives an SEC team in the running credit for being about a half-game better than their record shows.

So, for example, a 12-1 Georgia SEC CCG runner-up is presumed to be a bit better than a 12-1 conference champ from one of the other (read "lesser") conferences. The burden of proof rests on the supporters of that 12-1 non-SEC champ to demonstrate that it is more worthy than the SEC's 12-1 second-place team.

Another example would be an 11-1 LSU or Auburn team this year, having only lost to Bama. The burden of proof would lie on an 11-1 or 12-1 non-champ from any other conference.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #32 on:** October 04, 2019, 01:39:01 AM »

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on October 03, 2019, 10:20:18 PM

Because that year the SEC had a grand total of two good teams, Georgia and Alabama. UGA and Bama did not play each other in the regular season. They did not play each other in the conference championship.

Auburn was probably the third best team, but lost to UCF and Clemson out of conference, so it isn't like they were a world beater. They did beat Bama and Georgia.

The SEC, outside of those two programs, was poop. The conference went 1-3 against the B1G, 7-5 against the ACC, 2-2 against the Big 12, and 0-2 against the PAC.

The SEC was weak that year. Bama and Georgia had a cakewalk.

And, yes, I do think OSU would have beaten Bama if they had been given the opportunity.

So it's all SOS and ignore any eye test. Got it.
Beware of going strictly resume, though - most years, you'll still end up with more SEC teams than you want. Just like expanding from 2 to 4 as an overreaction to 2011...be careful what you wish for. Now we'll have more all-SEC NCGs.

MrNubbz · « **Reply #33 on:** October 04, 2019, 08:42:06 AM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 03, 2019, 09:18:58 AM

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Big Beef Tacosupreme · « **Reply #34 on:** October 04, 2019, 09:18:38 AM »

Quote from: CWSooner on October 03, 2019, 10:36:52 PM

I think the Committee gives an SEC team in the running credit for being about a half-game better than their record shows.

So, for example, a 12-1 Georgia SEC CCG runner-up is presumed to be a bit better than a 12-1 conference champ from one of the other (read "lesser") conferences. The burden of proof rests on the supporters of that 12-1 non-SEC champ to demonstrate that it is more worthy than the SEC's 12-1 second-place team.

Another example would be an 11-1 LSU or Auburn team this year, having only lost to Bama. The burden of proof would lie on an 11-1 or 12-1 non-champ from any other conference.

And that is ridiculous. I am pretty confident that there were at least 10 teams in CFB that year that would have ended with 1 loss or less, playing the same schedule that Bama had. I hate when people just assume the SEC is the best conference. Sometimes, it isn't. Look at the data.

All of this could have been avoided if we follow a basic premise. If you are only going to include 4 teams, it should max out at one team per conference in the playoff.

Big Beef Tacosupreme · « **Reply #35 on:** October 04, 2019, 09:31:56 AM »

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 04, 2019, 01:39:01 AM

So it's all SOS and ignore any eye test. Got it.
Beware of going strictly resume, though - most years, you'll still end up with more SEC teams than you want. Just like expanding from 2 to 4 as an overreaction to 2011...be careful what you wish for. Now we'll have more all-SEC NCGs.

That's not what I said, but I'll defend it anyway.

The eye test shouldn't be ignored, but it should be kept in context. If you play a bunch of lower ranked FCS squads and a bunch of sunbelt teams, you are going to look amazing on an eye test. If you have 9 conference games, play in a tough conference, and had a tough non-conference schedule, that should be given more consideration than an eye test.

However, we are getting off topic here. The playoff should max out at one team per conference.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #36 on:** October 04, 2019, 09:48:38 AM »

I don't agree that should be a rule, but I personally would give more "credit" to conference champions that they appear to do.

We have had champions in the past who were 10-3 or 9-4. I would not choose them over an 11-1 P5 team that had a narrow loss. I'd look for the four best teams for the playoff. I'd lean to an 11-2 champ over an 11-1 at large unless the 11-1 team had run a real gauntlet.

Big Beef Tacosupreme · « **Reply #37 on:** October 04, 2019, 10:14:41 AM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 04, 2019, 09:48:38 AM

I don't agree that should be a rule, but I personally would give more "credit" to conference champions that they appear to do.

We have had champions in the past who were 10-3 or 9-4. I would not choose them over an 11-1 P5 team that had a narrow loss. I'd look for the four best teams for the playoff. I'd lean to an 11-2 champ over an 11-1 at large unless the 11-1 team had run a real gauntlet.

For me I am stubborn about only allowing one team in per conference. Primarily because a conference could be totally weak. Let's take Alabama 2017 as an example.

Did Bama run a real gauntlet? No.

Bama 2017:

Best opponent: Auburn (Loss)
Next Best opponent: Narrow win over #19 LSU at home.
Conference Champ: No

Cincydawg · « **Reply #38 on:** October 04, 2019, 10:19:57 AM »

They did beat final ranked #18 and #19 during the season, and of course they did win the NC (after being selected).

They did not have a markedly tough slate once FSU collapsed. I agree personally, but it's a done deal, I would have gone with OSU, but OSU had a couple ugly losses.

rolltidefan · « **Reply #39 on:** October 04, 2019, 11:02:13 AM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 04, 2019, 09:48:38 AM

I don't agree that should be a rule, but I personally would give more "credit" to conference champions that they appear to do.

We have had champions in the past who were 10-3 or 9-4. I would not choose them over an 11-1 P5 team that had a narrow loss. I'd look for the four best teams for the playoff. I'd lean to an 11-2 champ over an 11-1 at large unless the 11-1 team had run a real gauntlet.

i'd agree with this, but add that the 11-2 can't have a completely inexcusable loss. like if au had beated uga in seccg, i don't think they should have been left out for a 1-loss non-conf team like bama was.

and au and osu schedules were similar.

both lost a respectable game vs a top 5 team (osu at home vs oklahoma, au on road @ clemson)
both played other really good teams and won (au had bama and uga, osu had psu and msu)
both trounced most of the rest of their schedule, except...
au lost a close game to an ok lsu team by 1 point, osu got blownout vs an ok team in iowa by 31

if that osu loss was similar to that au loss, then i'd have no problem with them over any other 1-loss non-conf champ. but that type loss is just inexcusable to me.

also, bbts, how do you not have au as a good sec team? they played 3 cfp teams that year in reg season and went 2-1.

Big Beef Tacosupreme · « **Reply #40 on:** October 04, 2019, 11:03:10 AM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 04, 2019, 10:19:57 AM

They did beat final ranked #18 and #19 during the season, and of course they did win the NC (after being selected).

They did not have a markedly tough slate once FSU collapsed. I agree personally, but it's a done deal, I would have gone with OSU, but OSU had a couple ugly losses.

OSU also played a MUCH tougher schedule. They played #3 Oklahoma (Loss), #7 Wisconsin (win), #8 Penn State (win), and #15 Michigan State (win). OSU also played in a much tougher conference.

Yes, they did lose to Iowa at Iowa, but that's not really unusual. It is probably the toughest place to play in the B1G. OSU was also coming off a brutal game against Penn State the week before. Iowa was also a sneaky good team, and could have easily been 10-2.

Margin of victory is a slippery slope, and I don't put much faith in it. For example, 2017 Georgia was blown out by Auburn, but then came back to beat Auburn decisively in the SEC championship.

Big Beef Tacosupreme · « **Reply #41 on:** October 04, 2019, 11:18:26 AM »

Quote from: rolltidefan on October 04, 2019, 11:02:13 AM

i'd agree with this, but add that the 11-2 can't have a completely inexcusable loss. like if au had beated uga in seccg, i don't think they should have been left out for a 1-loss non-conf team like bama was.

and au and osu schedules were similar.

both lost a respectable game vs a top 5 team (osu at home vs oklahoma, au on road @ clemson)
both played other really good teams and won (au had bama and uga, osu had psu and msu)
both trounced most of the rest of their schedule, except...
au lost a close game to an ok lsu team by 1 point, osu got blownout vs an ok team in iowa by 31

if that osu loss was similar to that au loss, then i'd have no problem with them over any other 1-loss non-conf champ. but that type loss is just inexcusable to me.

also, bbts, how do you not have au as a good sec team? they played 3 cfp teams that year in reg season and went 2-1.

I don't think I ever said Auburn wasn't a good team. I said the SEC was weak in 2017. I said that Auburn was the toughest team UGA and Alabama played in the regular season. I said that UGA and Bama had a cakewalk to a one loss season. I also said that there were probably 10 other teams that would have have finished with the same or better record given the same schedule.

Here's my point: A weak conference can be a free pass into the CFB playoff. This is why the playoff should only allow one team in per conference.

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Topic: Is the Big Ten top to bottom the 2nd best conference in America?

Big Beef Tacosupreme

Re: Is the Big Ten top to bottom the 2nd best conference in America?

OrangeAfroMan

Re: Is the Big Ten top to bottom the 2nd best conference in America?

Big Beef Tacosupreme

Re: Is the Big Ten top to bottom the 2nd best conference in America?

CWSooner

Re: Is the Big Ten top to bottom the 2nd best conference in America?

OrangeAfroMan

Re: Is the Big Ten top to bottom the 2nd best conference in America?

MrNubbz

Re: Is the Big Ten top to bottom the 2nd best conference in America?

Big Beef Tacosupreme

Re: Is the Big Ten top to bottom the 2nd best conference in America?

Big Beef Tacosupreme

Re: Is the Big Ten top to bottom the 2nd best conference in America?

Cincydawg

Re: Is the Big Ten top to bottom the 2nd best conference in America?

Big Beef Tacosupreme

Re: Is the Big Ten top to bottom the 2nd best conference in America?

Cincydawg

Re: Is the Big Ten top to bottom the 2nd best conference in America?

rolltidefan

Re: Is the Big Ten top to bottom the 2nd best conference in America?

Big Beef Tacosupreme

Re: Is the Big Ten top to bottom the 2nd best conference in America?

Big Beef Tacosupreme

Re: Is the Big Ten top to bottom the 2nd best conference in America?