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Topic: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams after Week 6

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ohio1317

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Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams after Week 6
« on: October 06, 2019, 11:05:30 AM »
Teams with 1st loss Week 6:
Auburn
Iowa

Teams with 2nd loss Week 6:
Central Florida
Michigan State
Utah State
West Virginia
California
Washington
Oklahoma State
Army
Texas Christian
Eastern Michigan
Air Force
Kansas State
Colorado
Duke

Teams with 1st win Week 6:
none

Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
7: All conference champs except the champs of the MAC, PAC-12, and Conference USA. That is no changes this week from last.

Teams with 1st loss:
Week 0 and 1: 35.38% (46 of 130)
Week 2: 38.01% (32 of 84)
Week 3: 32.69% (17 of 52)
Week 4: 34.29% (12 of 35)
Week 5: 21.74% (5 of 23)
Week 6: 11.11% (2 of 18)

Week 6 Thoughts:
-Very low percent of undefeated teams losing the first time this week.

-Florida's win over Auburn keeps them undefeated and makes the odds of the result of the Florida-Georgia game determining the east much higher. Both Florida and Georgia still have other tough games, but less likely now 2 go the other way for the team that wins the Florida/Georgia game.

-Washington losing to Stanford leaves the PAC-12 with just 4 1-loss teams (only teams with any kind of chance at the CFP). They are the Arizona schools, Oregon, and Utah.

-Group of 5 Cotton Bowl Bid: Biggest news ended up being Cincinnati defeating UCF. For UCF, a 2nd loss combined with losing control of their division means a 3rd time in a row in a NY6 bowl is looking very unlikely. They aren't out yet, but now need a ton of help. On the flip side, Cincinnati is now in the best position it has been in in years leading the east with their only loss to a very good Ohio State team. That said, they have a tough schedule still and need Boise State to slip up somewhere at the very least. The only ones who might not need Boise State to lose (although that's debatable) are SMU and Memphis. SMU very nearly left the undefeated column this week, but came up with a great comeback.

Week 7 Thoughts:
We have 1 games between undefeated teams this week.

Undefeated Florida @ undefeated LSU: Second game like this in a row for the Gators. Win this and it all comes down to the Georgia game. Lose and they are probably still ok, but need to win out. LSU needs this more given all the big western match-ups still to come. They've looked great so far though and will be favored at home.

Undefeated Oklahoma vs. 1-loss Texas at the Cotton Bowl: It's always good when this feels like a huge game in conference and it does this year. These might be the two best in the Big 12 and the loser can still get to the Big 12 championship. Texas has to win this week to stay nationally relevant to the CFP race though and Oklahoma cannot assume they will be in at 12-1 so really need this too (although they would still stand a chance after a loss).

Undefeated Appalachian State @ 1-loss Louisiana-Lafayette (Wednesday): Appalachian State still has a game vs. South Carolina coming up, but this might be the toughest conference opponent left on the schedule and it is away. Could also be a preview of the 2nd annual Sun Belt Championship game.

1-loss Hawaii @ undefeated Boise State: Possible Mountain West Championship preview.

Texas Tech @ Undefeated Baylor: Texas Tech just got off a pretty impressive win vs. Oklahoma State. Baylor keeps winning. Important game for both teams.

Undefeated Penn State @ 1-loss Iowa: Iowa lost a big one vs. Michigan last week, but will have this one at home. Penn State has not gotten the attention of Ohio State, but has looked incredibly good this year. This will be an interesting test, especially if you compare it to last week with the Iowa/Michigan game.

Nebraska @ undefeated Minnesota: Minnesota hasn't always looked good, but they keep winning. Likely go into this game as favorites which is not something they often do vs. Nebraska.

Undefeated Memphis @ 1-loss Temple: Big road test for the tigers. Temple is still very much in the race in the east. Memphis very high on NY6 bowl race if they can win.

Undefeated Alabama @ Texas A&M: Don't see this one being close, but there is enough talent with the Aggies to make this a game if things go right at home.

Our winless teams play in the following: Winless New Mexico State @ 3-3 Central Michigan and 2-3 Kent State @ winless Akron. Rice is on a bye this week. Akron seems like more likely one to win this week.

 Remaining Undefeated Teams:
ACC: 2, American Athletic: 2, Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 4, Mountain West: 1, SEC: 4, Sun Belt: 1, total: 16
Clemson
Wake Forest
Baylor
Oklahoma
Minnesota
Ohio State
Penn State
Wisconsin
Memphis
Southern Methodist
Florida
Georgia
Alabama
Louisiana State
Boise State
Appalachian State


1-loss Teams: ACC: 1, American: 4, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 2, Conference USA: 2, MAC: 1, Mountain West: 3, PAC-12: 4, SEC: 2, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 1, total: 22
Cincinnati
Temple
Tulane
Texas
Michigan
Louisiana Tech
Toledo
Wyoming
Hawaii
San Diego State
Oregon
Arizona
Utah
Arizona State
Missouri
Louisiana-Lafayette
Notre Dame
Navy
Virginia
UAB
Auburn
Iowa

Remaining Winless Teams: Conference USA: 1, MAC: 1, independents: 1, total: 3
Rice
Akron
New Mexico State

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams after Week 6
« Reply #1 on: October 06, 2019, 11:18:43 AM »
Akron has a punchers chance in the Wagon Wheel game vs Kent. 
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams after Week 6
« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2019, 08:59:24 AM »
Thanks for posting so early this week!

Last week there were 19 more potential games between undefeated teams.  This week there are significantly less because:

  • One of them has been played, and
  • Iowa is no longer undefeated, and
  • Auburn is no longer undefeated

The remaining potential games between undefeated teams are:
  • 10/12 Florida at LSU (this is the only one that will DEFINITELY happen)
  • 10/26 Wisconsin at Ohio State
  • 11/2 Florida v Georgia (WLOCP)
  • 11/2 SMU at Memphis
  • 11/9 LSU at Bama
  • 11/9 Penn State at Minnesota
  • 11/16 Wake Forest at Clemson
  • 11/16 Oklahoma at Baylor
  • 11/23 Penn State at Ohio State (if this happens it will be for the B1G-E slot in the B1GCG)
  • 11/30 Wisconsin at Minnesota (if this happens it will be for the outright B1G-W Championship)
  • SECCG*
  • B1GCG*


*SECCG: This can only match undefeated teams if it is:
  • Bama v Florida, or
  • Bama v Georgia, or
  • LSU v Georgia
*B1GCG: This can only match undefeated teams if it is:
  • tOSU v MN or 
  • PSU v UW

A match-up of undefeated teams in the B1GCG now seems extremely unlikely.  It could only happen if either Minnesota runs the table which seems EXTREMELY unlikely or if both Wisconsin and Penn State win in Columbus.  It seems a lot more likely in the SEC.  

Undefeated teams in the rankings (using AP here):
  • #1 Bama
  • #2 Clemson
  • #3 (tie) Ohio State
  • #3 (tie) Georgia
  • #5 LSU
  • #6 Oklahoma
  • #7 Florida
  • #8 Wisconsin
  • #10 Penn State
  • #14 Boise State
  • #19 Wake Forest
  • #21 SMU
  • #22 Baylor
  • #23 Memphis
  • #26 Minnesota*
  • #28 Appalachian State*

*Note that Minnesota and ApSt aren't actually "ranked" 26th and 28th but they are first and third among "others receiving votes" respectively so I have listed them that way.  

I believe that we are now just one week from having all undefeated teams ranked.  The two unranked undefeated teams are VERY close to the top-25 and they both play decent teams this week.  ApSt visits Louisiana in a game between the two SunBelt teams with the best records and Minnesota hosts a 4-2 Nebraska squad.  Thus, it appears that next week both of them will either be ranked or no longer undefeated.  

The contiguous block of undefeated P5 teams at the top has now grown to eight.  The only undefeated P5 teams not among that block are:
  • #10 Penn State
  • #19 Wake Forest
  • #22 Baylor
  • #26* Minnesota

Those four will join the block of undefeated teams as the top soon if they keep winning:

Penn State travels to #17 Iowa this weekend.  My guess is that if they win they will jump ND to join the undefeated teams at the top.  

Wake Forest's next four opponents are each 3-2 and unranked (Louisville, FSU, NCST, VaTech) but after that they visit #1 Clemson on 11/16.  

Baylor's next four opponents each have two losses as well (TxTech, OkSU, WVU, TCU) and after that they host #6 Oklahoma on 11/16.  

Minnesota's next three opponents are 4-2 Nebraska, 1-4 Rutgers, and 3-2 Maryland so they aren't going to move up too fast by beating them but after that they have back-to-back games against currently ranked teams (vPSU, @IA) on 11/9 and 11/16.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams after Week 6
« Reply #3 on: October 10, 2019, 09:37:58 AM »
Appalachian State won last night at Louisiana so they will most likely be ranked in the next poll.  Their next three games are against sub .500 Sun Belt teams (2-3 UL-Monroe, 1-5 S. Bama, and 2-3 GaSo) so their next opportunity to prove themselves or lose is USC-e on November 9.  

Cincydawg

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Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams after Week 6
« Reply #4 on: October 10, 2019, 05:11:20 PM »
Games this week where undefeated or ranked teams could plausibly lose:

Florida @ LSU of course
Texas v Oklahoma

MSU @ Wisconsin (probably not)
PSU @ Iowa (decent chance of something here)

Bama @ A&M (weird things can happen out there)
USCe @ UGA (probably not).
UVA @ Miami (?)

Memphis @ Temple
Cincinnati @ Houston (big game for UC I think)


Cincydawg

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Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams after Week 6
« Reply #6 on: October 11, 2019, 11:19:06 AM »
Seems like a reasonable summary to me up above.

Obviously, that list likely will look a lot different in a few weeks.


 

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