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Topic: Iowa (3-4, 1-3) at #2 Ohio State (7-0, 4-0) Postgame

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Honestbuckeye

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Re: Iowa (3-3, 1-2) at #2 Ohio State (6-0, 3-0) Game Week
« Reply #14 on: October 20, 2022, 07:06:03 AM »
Ohio State and Iowa fans should enjoy this video interview of Iowa tight end Luke Lachey, whose dad is the play-by-play analyst for Ohio State.
Luke Lachey Interview on Upcoming Ohio State game

Luke is obviously a very upbeat, articulate young guy. Maybe he could succeed Iowa's Eddie Podolak, as radio analyst.
Good stuff!

Here is another good piece from the OSU side:

https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/2022/10/133957/luke-lachey-excited-to-return-to-his-hometown-as-father-prepares-to-call-his-son-s-game-at-ohio-state-this-weekend
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Iowa (3-3, 1-2) at #2 Ohio State (6-0, 3-0) Game Week
« Reply #15 on: October 20, 2022, 01:41:34 PM »
One of the big keys to Iowa's success on defense this year is that they simply don't allow big plays. The longest rush they have allowed all year was 23 yards by Brown of Illinois (second best in the league is Illinois at 44) and the longest pass they have allowed all year is 34 by Hightower of Illinois. 

Michigan's longest rush and pass against Iowa were 20 and 29 respectively. 

Ohio State so far thus year:

  • 16, longest rush against ND
  • 25, longest rush against UW
  • 26, longest rush against MSU
  • 32, longest pass against ND
  • 33, longest pass against UW
  • 36, longest pass against RU
  • 41, longest rush against ArSt
  • 49, longest rush against Toledo
  • 51, longest pass against ArSt
  • 69, longest pass against MSU
  • 70, longest rush against RU
  • 72, longest pass against Toledo

Something has to give here.

MrNubbz

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Re: Iowa (3-3, 1-2) at #2 Ohio State (6-0, 3-0) Game Week
« Reply #16 on: October 21, 2022, 09:11:43 AM »
Watching a Joel Klatt podcast from yesterday on YT and he makes some points I didn't consider. That this time
last year:
Chris Olave/Garret Wilson    61 rec.-1040 rec.yds-13 tds
This year:
Egbuka/Harrison                  66 rec,-1191 rec.yds-15 tds

And that is with pre-season Biletnikoff Award Favorite Jaxon Smith Njigba sidelined with a bad hamstring.The Offense is rolling fairly well - against albeit marginal compitition. His point for placing them no 1 was after losing Olave/Wilson to NFL 1st rd and w/o JSN things have actually shown more production.He goes on and gives a nod to Brian Hartline as one of the very best position coaches in CFB.Hopefully for the good guys things keep progressing
"It is the duty of the  Patriot to protect his country from it's government" - Thomas Paine

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Iowa (3-3, 1-2) at #2 Ohio State (6-0, 3-0) Game Week
« Reply #17 on: October 21, 2022, 09:16:17 AM »
Watching a Joel Klatt podcast from yesterday on YT and he makes some points I didn't consider. That this time
last year:
Chris Olave/Garret Wilson    61 rec.-1040 rec.yds-13 tds
This year:
Egbuka/Harrison                  66 rec,-1191 rec.yds-15 tds

And that is with pre-season Biletnikoff Award Favorite Jaxon Smith Njigba sidelined with a bad hamstring.The Offense is rolling fairly well - against albeit marginal compitition. His point for placing them no 1 was after losing Olave/Wilson to NFL 1st rd and w/o JSN things have actually shown more production.He goes on and gives a nod to Brian Hartline as one of the very best position coaches in CFB.Hopefully for the good guys things keep progressing
I saw that too. I like his podcast and his point here is amazing. He is right. We tOSU fans are beyond spoiled. Our team lost not one but two NFL first round WR's then the preseason Biletnikoff favorite went out due to injury and for all intents and purposes hasn't played this year and our team's passing game got BETTER. Joel's comment that he has simply never seen anything like that is dead on.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Iowa (3-3, 1-2) at #2 Ohio State (6-0, 3-0) Game Week
« Reply #18 on: October 21, 2022, 09:35:41 AM »
I want to give props to Iowa's defense. Getting this deep into the season without allowing a run over 23 yards or a pass over 34 is amazing. 

Most long plays result from ONE mistake on defense. For example, we discussed ND's long pass against the Buckeyes at length on here. The safety made a mistake and went for the ball with nobody behind him and ND got 50+.

Iowa not giving up anything over 23/34 is basically saying that their defense has played nearly mistake-free ball for half a season. That is huge and they deserve major credit for it. It just sucks for them that due to nepotism their team is only .500 despite having arguably the best D in the game.

I think those big plays will be a big factor in tomorrow's game. Ohio State is averaging almost 50 ppg and since the slow start against ND they are over 50 ppg and haven't been held below 45.

Note that against ND tOSU's longest play was a 32 yard pass and their longest run was for just 16. Notre Dame held the Buckeyes to 21 points, less than half if their next lowest output. 

My thinking is that Ohio State simply isn't going to score 40+ without hitting some big plays. Iowa prevented Michigan from hitting any really big plays and held the Wolverines to 27. If the prevent the Buckeyes from hitting big plays Ohio State will still score points but it will be something comparable to what Michigan achieved, probably 21-35 points or so.

Iowa's offense is so atrocious that even 21 would probably be enough to win but if the Buckeyes are held in the 20's then it will be a fairly close game that Iowa could win if they get two or three lucky bounces (pick-6's, ST TD's, etc).

OTOH, if tOSU does hit a few long plays then I think they'll probably score at least 35 points and I don't think Iowa could score 35 on an average HS defense so that will be a blowout.

MrNubbz

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Re: Iowa (3-3, 1-2) at #2 Ohio State (6-0, 3-0) Game Week
« Reply #19 on: October 21, 2022, 09:42:53 AM »
I saw that too. I like his podcast and his point here is amazing. He is right. We tOSU fans are beyond spoiled. Our team lost not one but two NFL first round WR's then the preseason Biletnikoff favorite went out due to injury and for all intents and purposes hasn't played this year and our team's passing game got BETTER. Joel's comment that he has simply never seen anything like that is dead on.
I know some here don't like him and after watching their slobbering spiel for the games I get that.IMO that is a network directive because in studio when breaking down games/talent and other pertinent info he is one of the best with out dragging the nonsense into it
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Cincydawg

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Re: Iowa (3-3, 1-2) at #2 Ohio State (6-0, 3-0) Game Week
« Reply #20 on: October 21, 2022, 09:58:58 AM »
What if the OSU OC changes up the game plan to more of a "grind it out" approach?  Shorter passes, limit 3rd and longs, run the ball a bit more, and simply run clock a bit?  You still score, more slowly, and then get the ball back fairly quickly and repeat.  Maybe it ends up more like 42-6?

Abba

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Re: Iowa (3-3, 1-2) at #2 Ohio State (6-0, 3-0) Game Week
« Reply #21 on: October 21, 2022, 10:10:37 AM »
That's what I'm expecting to see.  I don't think the Buckeyes are going to hit a lot of big plays.  They're going to get a lot of medium plays and long drives.  The clock will run, and at the end of the day, they will probably score in the 30s.  I just hope they are patient enough to take those plays instead of throwing deep just to throw deep and finding themselves in 2nd & 3rd and long.

Cincydawg

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Re: Iowa (3-3, 1-2) at #2 Ohio State (6-0, 3-0) Game Week
« Reply #22 on: October 21, 2022, 10:12:48 AM »
If they take say 7 minutes to score, and get the ball back 2 minutes later, they could get into the 40s.  They can stretch the defense with some long patterns to open shorter crossing routes and might hit some 20 yarders.

FearlessF

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Re: Iowa (3-3, 1-2) at #2 Ohio State (6-0, 3-0) Game Week
« Reply #23 on: October 21, 2022, 10:16:17 AM »
What if the OSU OC changes up the game plan to more of a "grind it out" approach?  Shorter passes, limit 3rd and longs, run the ball a bit more, and simply run clock a bit?  You still score, more slowly, and then get the ball back fairly quickly and repeat.  Maybe it ends up more like 42-6?
playing into Ferentz's strength?

I would hope not (well, for Ryan's sake)

w/o the deep shots and threat of big plays, it's even tougher to move the ball vs the Hawk defense
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Abba

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Re: Iowa (3-3, 1-2) at #2 Ohio State (6-0, 3-0) Game Week
« Reply #24 on: October 21, 2022, 10:18:20 AM »
I notice Iowa likes to play a lot of zone defense.  In the past, we've seen that Ryan likes to flood the zone by running 4 verticals.  It causes some issues as Iowa probably would only have 3 deep defenders, so they would have to make adjustments to handle that.  I don't know who would run the 4 verts though for this to work, as the Buckeyes have been going with 3 WR, 1 TE sets this year.  Cade Stover may run a vertical, or they could have JSN (if healthy) or Xavier Johnson check into the lineup to try to exploit things that way.

Honestbuckeye

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Re: Iowa (3-3, 1-2) at #2 Ohio State (6-0, 3-0) Game Week
« Reply #25 on: October 21, 2022, 10:20:10 AM »
What if the OSU OC changes up the game plan to more of a "grind it out" approach?  Shorter passes, limit 3rd and longs, run the ball a bit more, and simply run clock a bit?  You still score, more slowly, and then get the ball back fairly quickly and repeat.  Maybe it ends up more like 42-6?
This is what I expect them to attempt. 

start with” take what the defense gives you” but eventually use motions and formations to manipulate the defense, looking for some opportunities for explosive plays.  

Of course there is risk in that- poor execution or a “ baiting” defense can cause turnovers.  

A real coaching chess match.  
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Iowa (3-3, 1-2) at #2 Ohio State (6-0, 3-0) Game Week
« Reply #26 on: October 21, 2022, 10:20:50 AM »
It will be interesting to see obviously how the OSU OC manages this.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Iowa (3-3, 1-2) at #2 Ohio State (6-0, 3-0) Game Week
« Reply #27 on: October 21, 2022, 10:39:51 AM »
What if the OSU OC changes up the game plan to more of a "grind it out" approach?  Shorter passes, limit 3rd and longs, run the ball a bit more, and simply run clock a bit?  You still score, more slowly, and then get the ball back fairly quickly and repeat.  Maybe it ends up more like 42-6?
I doubt it if for no other reason than time.

If you are grinding it out you are probably taking at least five minutes per drive. 5x6=30 and 6x7=42 so even if you manage to score a TD on EVERY possession you'll burn half the game to score 42 points.
If they take say 7 minutes to score, and get the ball back 2 minutes later, they could get into the 40s.  They can stretch the defense with some long patterns to open shorter crossing routes and might hit some 20 yarders.
I think you are underestimating Iowa's time of possession here (more on that later) but even if you aren't this means that each set of possessions takes nine minutes. So let's say tOSU receives the opening kick and kicks off in the second half.
First half:
  • tOSU starts with 30 to go
  • tOSU starts with 21 to go
  • tOSU starts with 12 to go
  • tOSU starts with 3 to go, not enough time to score
Second half:
  • tOSU starts with 28 to go
  • tOSU starts with 19 to go
  • tOSU starts with 10 to go
  • tOSU gets the ball with one minute remaining.

So Ohio State only gets six relevant possessions because 3 minutes at the end of the first half isn't enough (maybe a FG as time expires or a few deep shots in the closing seconds) and tOSU wouldn't even be trying to score up 42-6 (your example) with one minute left.

So to get to 42 this way the Buckeyes would have to score a TD on EVERY possession.

I think that you two minute estimate for Iowa's possessions is far too low. Against the Wolverines Iowa had 10 possessions but one was 0:09 at the end of the first half. On the other nine they had about 26 minutes TOP which is a lot closer to three minutes each.

If we rerun the above time thing but with each set of possessions taking 10 minutes that cuts tOSU down to exactly six chances so they only score 42 points if the get a TD literally every time they touch the ball. Grind out games don't work that way. There will be punts and FG's.

Assuming zero big plays, I think that 1/3 TD's, 1/3 FG's, and 1/3 punts would be a pretty good afternoon and that would be about 20 points.


 

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