This is the kind of game that will gut punch Badger fans because there is a path to victory. Iowa wants to run the ball and little else. That is just what the Badgers are good at stopping. So the good news is this is a strength-on-strength match-up. The problem is Iowa has a good defense, which is likely to shut down a Badger offense that can't seem to block for the run or the pass. It is odd to look at a Wisconsin offense that has some legit playmakers in the backfield and out wide, but they can't get them going because the blocking just isn't there.
Ferentz is and always has been a conservative play-caller. With a mess of a Badger offense coming to town, he's going to be happy to grind away, play for field position, and take the points when they are available. The Badgers are unlikely to make much headway against a stingy defense, and the Badger defense has not been creating turnovers, so good luck generating chances there.
I was probably a little facetious calling this a 6-2 game, but I think Iowa wins a low-scoring affair. Maybe 13-3? The O/U is 36.5. I'm not a gambler, but if I were, I would take the under.