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Topic: Initial Playoff Committee Rankings

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MarqHusker

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Re: Initial Playoff Committee Rankings
« Reply #28 on: October 31, 2018, 03:59:04 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 31, 2018, 03:12:53 PM
Bama is a 2 TD favorite over the #3 ranked team ON THE ROAD, in Baton Rouge, at night.

I don't recall a year since maybe 1995 when #1 was so heavily favored over the field.


For some context
Nebraska in 1995 was -23 vs #8 KSU in Lincoln (covered),  -8 at #7 Colorado in Boulder (covered), and -25 at #10 Kansas in Lawrence (covered).    The #1 v #2 Fiesta vs Florida, Nebraska was a 3 point favorite (covered).
Nebraska was 10-2 ATS in '95, was -52 vs Pacific (won 49-7) and was -28 vs Wazzu (won 35-21).   
Covered: -28 at Okie St, -18 at Mich St, -27 ASU, -42 Mizz, -42 Iowa St, -34 OU.
#1/#2 Florida State by the way was a 17 1/2 point favorite over #1 in one poll, #2 in the other poll Nebraska team in the '94 Orange Bowl.   FSU won 18-16.
In reviewing Bama's Saban run,   their biggest number in a top top matchup is -9 vs ND in the Orange Bowl.   Obviously Bama's offense hadn't been what it is today.
Peak Pete Carroll wasn't seeing a number like this either. 
Florida got to see some low double digit #s in big games, including +10 vs Bama in SECCCG.
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Mdot21

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Re: Initial Playoff Committee Rankings
« Reply #29 on: October 31, 2018, 04:44:25 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 31, 2018, 02:46:48 PM
Sub Michigan for Clemson and Georgia for Notre Dame and I'm good.
Nah. Clemson deserves to be at 2. I'd have ND at 3. Not sold on Georgia just yet. I'm fine with Michigan at 5. They have to keep earning it. My top 4 would be...

1) Bama
2) Clemson
3) ND
4) LSU
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fezzador

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Re: Initial Playoff Committee Rankings
« Reply #30 on: October 31, 2018, 05:01:28 PM »
Michigan fans should probably root for Bama this weekend, as a one-loss Bama won't get knocked out but a two-loss LSU likely will
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Cincydawg

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Re: Initial Playoff Committee Rankings
« Reply #31 on: October 31, 2018, 05:28:50 PM »
A two loss team is out barring mayhem (which could get fun).  I know Auburn would have made it last year but that was with two close losses to very good teams and 3 top level wins.

Maybe a 2 loss team makes it in one year in 8, maybe.

Alabama is favored over LSU more than UGA is favored over UK.  
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Honestbuckeye

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Re: Initial Playoff Committee Rankings
« Reply #32 on: October 31, 2018, 05:55:28 PM »
So try this: Michigan wins out including CCG

Oklahoma wins out including CCG
Clemson wins out including CCG
Notre Dame wins out
WSU wins out including CCG
LSU or Georgia beats Bama, so Bama is a 1 loss non Conference champion.

Who gets in?  ( not who should, who does)

Based on how completely inconsistent the committee has been, my prediction:
Clemson
ND
SEC 1 loss champ( Georgia or LSU)
Bama.  

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MrNubbz

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Re: Initial Playoff Committee Rankings
« Reply #33 on: October 31, 2018, 06:24:04 PM »
Depends I guess how bad Bama losses by.At this point I guess anyone in the BIG are Tide fans to avoid precisely that
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Cincydawg

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Re: Initial Playoff Committee Rankings
« Reply #34 on: October 31, 2018, 06:45:51 PM »
If UGA edged Bama say 27-24, Bama might get the nod, but I doubt it.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Initial Playoff Committee Rankings
« Reply #35 on: October 31, 2018, 07:03:43 PM »
The playoff is so young, we're still not entirely used to the late-season dynamic of it.  We're used to WHEN you lose mattering A LOT, but in the playoff era, it barely matters, if at all.

That's what keeps a 12-0 Bama who loses in the SECCG (then 12-1) confidently in the fold.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Initial Playoff Committee Rankings
« Reply #36 on: October 31, 2018, 07:05:20 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on October 31, 2018, 10:21:02 AM
If Bama loses to LSU and finishes 11-1 it will certainly create an interesting test of "eye test" vs SoS.  

Bama's OOC is flat out abysmal.  Their "marquee" OOC opponent was a Louisville team which is 0-5 in a weak ACC and 2-6 overall.  Their other three OOC opponents are an FCS team, a bad Sun Belt team, and a mediocre Sun Belt team.  Their two SEC-E opponents (TN and Mizzou) are a combined 1-8 in the SEC and 7-9 overall.  That isn't just bad, it is awful.  

Thus, Bama's only legitimate opponents will be their SEC-W brethren and (if they get there), their SECCG and post-season opponents.  
Bama isn't under the same 'scrutiny umbrella' as everyone else.  They win the eye test in spades, and that matters (fair or unfair).  
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Initial Playoff Committee Rankings
« Reply #37 on: October 31, 2018, 07:06:17 PM »
Quote from: Mdot21 on October 31, 2018, 10:49:51 AM
SEC needs to go to a 9 game schedule and stop playing FCS teams.
I keep seeing this, but have yet to get a valid 'why'.  There is no motivation for the SEC to do this, so why would they?
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Initial Playoff Committee Rankings
« Reply #38 on: October 31, 2018, 07:13:27 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 31, 2018, 03:12:53 PM
Bama is a 2 TD favorite over the #3 ranked team ON THE ROAD, in Baton Rouge, at night.

I don't recall a year since maybe 1995 when #1 was so heavily favored over the field.


Nebraska was only a 3.5 point favorite vs Florida in the Fiesta Bowl.  I doubt anyone would be set within 8-9 pts vs Alabama at a neutral site right now.
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“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Initial Playoff Committee Rankings
« Reply #39 on: October 31, 2018, 07:15:36 PM »
As for the potential who's in, who's out of the top teams, the Irish better not lose a game.  They're out if they do.
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“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Mdot21

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Re: Initial Playoff Committee Rankings
« Reply #40 on: October 31, 2018, 08:09:06 PM »
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 31, 2018, 05:55:28 PM
So try this: Michigan wins out including CCG

Oklahoma wins out including CCG
Clemson wins out including CCG
Notre Dame wins out
WSU wins out including CCG
LSU or Georgia beats Bama, so Bama is a 1 loss non Conference champion.

Who gets in?  ( not who should, who does)

Based on how completely inconsistent the committee has been, my prediction:
Clemson
ND
SEC 1 loss champ( Georgia or LSU)
Bama.  
Saw someone talk about this on tv. Forget the dudes name. 
Basically said that if Bama were to lose vs LSU and not make the SEC CG that they’d be out. They’d have zero quality wins on that resume and other 1 loss or no loss teams would be more deserving.
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Initial Playoff Committee Rankings
« Reply #41 on: October 31, 2018, 08:29:21 PM »

The Dude... we're Bama tiebreaker seems to work out for them, more often than not. 
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