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Topic: Initial Playoff Committee Rankings

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Anonymous Coward

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Re: Initial Playoff Committee Rankings
« Reply #112 on: November 05, 2018, 09:18:40 AM »
Quote from: ELA on November 05, 2018, 08:56:55 AM
Kind of wish we could just flex it each year to what we needed.  There are years 2 would have been enough.  This year, I kind of like a 6 team playoff.
That's my favorite option, too. Of course, it's impractical in terms of preparing bowls that may not be used and, in some years, deliberately avoiding those games' revenue by canceling them. In a world where it is practical, though, I'd want to find a way to more objectively determine whether this is a 2- or 6-team year. A computer formula might work. Or not. Whatever it'd be, I'd want it to be validated on past seasons for a sanity check.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Initial Playoff Committee Rankings
« Reply #113 on: November 05, 2018, 09:41:46 AM »
I think a 2 team thing would work this year.

I don't see ND and UM as being in the same group as Bama and Clemson.  Of course, upsets can happen.  

This is my main objection to an 8 team system.  You can have a truly dominant (looking) team like Bama and they have to win three in a row, four really, over quite good teams, so their odds of winning the conference CG are say 90%, and then beating #8 is 90%, and then beating say #3 is 75% and then beating #2 is say 65%.  They are favored in each and "should win" each game individually, but not collectively.

So, you get a playoff champion.
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Anonymous Coward

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Re: Initial Playoff Committee Rankings
« Reply #114 on: November 05, 2018, 09:48:28 AM »
That's right. Playoffs don't crown the season's best team. They crown the one plinko ball that falls to the correct slot.
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ELA

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Re: Initial Playoff Committee Rankings
« Reply #115 on: November 05, 2018, 10:04:12 AM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 05, 2018, 09:41:46 AM
I think a 2 team thing would work this year.
Yeah, I think 2 or 6 are better numbers this year than 4.  I think Alabama and Clemson look a full step better than everyone else; then Notre Dame, Michigan, Georgia and Oklahoma all look similarish in reusme to me, and a full step ahead of anyone else.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Initial Playoff Committee Rankings
« Reply #116 on: November 05, 2018, 10:21:23 AM »
Folks are perhaps overlooking WVU, maybe, and Wazzu, perhaps.  Georgia to me does not look capable of hanging with Bama, so they are out barring a huge upset.  WVU is dangerous.  Michigan strikes me as a team that has stepped it up over the season as has ND, but neither look like a Clemson/Bama level team.  OSU looks "troubled" somehow.  Ou can put up numbers like last year, and allow same.

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ELA

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Re: Initial Playoff Committee Rankings
« Reply #117 on: November 05, 2018, 10:37:31 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 05, 2018, 10:21:23 AM
Folks are perhaps overlooking WVU, maybe, and Wazzu, perhaps.  Georgia to me does not look capable of hanging with Bama, so they are out barring a huge upset.  WVU is dangerous.  Michigan strikes me as a team that has stepped it up over the season as has ND, but neither look like a Clemson/Bama level team.  OSU looks "troubled" somehow.  Ou can put up numbers like last year, and allow same.


WVU still plays Oklahoma once, if not twice.  If they win those, replace Oklahoma with them in my 6 team playoff.  Sorry Wazzu, Pac 12 is weak at the top this year.
If MSU keeps winning, I could get on board with an MSU-WSU Rose Bowl though!
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MaximumSam

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Re: Initial Playoff Committee Rankings
« Reply #118 on: November 05, 2018, 10:38:48 AM »
Kind of interesting to watch seeding.  Bama and Clemson have been head and shoulders better over the course of the season.  Michigan has made a big rise, but can they slip into the third spot?  They match up much better with Clemson than Alabama, so it could make a big difference.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Initial Playoff Committee Rankings
« Reply #119 on: November 05, 2018, 10:40:08 AM »
If the favorites play out as expected, I'm happy with the current final four grouping.  I don't really see a 5 or 6 that I think merits inclusion.

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MaximumSam

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Re: Initial Playoff Committee Rankings
« Reply #120 on: November 05, 2018, 11:00:00 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 05, 2018, 10:40:08 AM
If the favorites play out as expected, I'm happy with the current final four grouping.  I don't really see a 5 or 6 that I think merits inclusion.


The biggest remaining games:
Bammer: They still have Miss. St., Auburn, and the SEC championship game against Georgia (with a sandwich game against Citadel).  Not an easy path, even if they lose once they are probably still in.  If they lose to a 1 loss Georgia, they are probably both in.
Clemson: They have BC, Duke, and South Carolina, then the ACC championship game, against, IDK, Pitt maybe?  Those are all competent teams capable of pulling an upset, though none of them are what you would call good.
Michigan: Pull Rutgers, Indiana, OSU, then the B1G championship game, probably against Northwestern.  Beating OSU on the road would be good, but probably not going to get much cache from the other games.
ND: Gets FSU, Syracuse, and USC.  Funny that Syracuse is clearly the best team on that list.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Initial Playoff Committee Rankings
« Reply #121 on: November 05, 2018, 11:24:19 AM »
I seem to recall MANY times that the playoffs seemed to be set right around NOW and then ....

Imagine the MAYHEM if Syracuse upends ND and BC upsets Clemson.  Then we have a completely open cast of characters, almost.

OSU might lose to MSU and then upset Michigan in C-bus.  Washington beats Wazzu and then loses in their CG.

This could be a path for UCF, maybe perhaps sorta.
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FearlessF

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Re: Initial Playoff Committee Rankings
« Reply #122 on: November 05, 2018, 12:23:19 PM »
UCF's tougher games are coming up
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"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Cincydawg

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Re: Initial Playoff Committee Rankings
« Reply #123 on: November 05, 2018, 03:42:08 PM »
Well, because I tend to enjoy entropy in football, I'm going to contemplate the following scenario:

UGA loses to Auburn and upsets Alabama.
Clemson loses to BC but wins the ACC.
ND loses to Syracuse.
OSU loses to MSU and then beats Michigan but NW beats OSU.
UDubb beats Wazzu.
WVU beats Oklahoma but loses the rematch.
UCF loses to somebody.

« Last Edit: November 05, 2018, 03:50:53 PM by Cincydawg »
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Initial Playoff Committee Rankings
« Reply #124 on: November 05, 2018, 03:47:08 PM »
How can OSU lose to MSU and beat MSU in the same season? 

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Cincydawg

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Re: Initial Playoff Committee Rankings
« Reply #125 on: November 05, 2018, 03:50:36 PM »
Oops, fixed it.

All those Michigan schools look alike to me.
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