Well this discussion got off to an early start between
@ELA and I in the
Power Rankings thread but here goes:
B1G-E:
- 5-0 Michigan State: Controls their own destiny.
- 5-0 Ohio State: Controls their own destiny.
- 4-1 Michigan: Needs either two MSU losses or a three-way tie at 8-1 with the two above and a REALLY strong finish by their B1G-W opponents (Note, this may not be mathematically possible, I'd have to check. More on tiebreakers below)
The rest of the division is practically eliminated and at least most of them are mathematically eliminated. UMD and PSU both have three losses so the best they could do is a tie with the MSU/tOSU winner and that would require the MSU/tOSU winner to otherwise lose out plus it would require the MSU/tOSU loser to win no more than one additional game and Michigan to win no more than two additional games and even then UMD/PSU would have to find a way to win the convoluted multi-team tiebreaker which is unlikely since both already lost to tOSU.
B1G-W:
- 4-1 Minnesota: Controls their own destiny.
- 3-2 Wisconsin: Controls their own destiny, the Axe could be for a trip to Indy.
- 3-2 Purdue: Needs all kinds of help because they already lost to both of the teams ahead of them on this list.
- 3-2 Iowa: Needs a loss each by PU and UW.
The rest of the division is practically eliminated and probably mathematically eliminated because they have 4+ losses so they would need a slew of losses by the teams ahead of them and that really isn't possible because a lot of the remaining games for the teams ahead of them are against each other.
Tiebreakers:
If anyone knows of anything newer, let me know but here are the
tiebreakers from the B1G website. In a two-team tie the only tiebreaker is H2H. In a multi-team tie the following procedures are applied sequentially with the caveat that if only two teams are left after ANY step, those two revert to H2H:
- H2H...2H.
- Divisional Record.
- Record against the next best team(s) in the division, then the next, then the next, etc.
- Record against all common conference opponents.
- Cumulative league record of non-divisional opponents (ie, whoever played the toughest cross-overs goes).
- Record against the best team(s) in the other division, then the next, then the next, etc.
- Overall record.
- Random Draw.
In the event of a three-way tie at 8-1 (such as MSU, tOSU, and M this year if tOSU beats MSU, M beats tOSU, and all three otherwise win out) steps 1, 2, 3, 4, and 6 will all be tied so it will come down to either #5 record of non-divisional opponents, #7 overall record, or #8random draw.
In the case of a 3-way tie at 8-1 between Ohio State and the two Michigan schools the first thing looked at would be the league records of their non-divisional opponents. All three play Nebraska this year so that is irrelevant. The other two B1G-W opponents for each team are:
Ohio State:
- 4-1 Minnesota
- 3-2 Purdue
- 7-3 total
Michigan:
- 3-2 Wisconsin
- 1-4 Northwestern
- 4-6 total
Michigan State:
- 3-2 Purdue
- 1-4 Northwestern
- 4-6 total
Ohio State currently holds a three-game lead in this tiebreaker which is substantial but not enough to clinch mathematically.
