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Topic: CFP Rankings heading into Thanksgiving Weekend

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: CFP Rankings heading into Thanksgiving Weekend
« Reply #56 on: November 24, 2021, 05:19:04 PM »
Yup,  If Oklahoma State were to win out, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the committee put ND in over them.
I'd be willing to bet against that and, as @OrangeAfroMan says:
That would be gross.
Notre Dame's schedule is closer to Cincy's than it is to OU/OkSU, it would be ridiculously gross:

The above uses rankings from CBS.  Note also that I have assumed that each will make their CG (because if they don't we don't care) and I've taken an educated guess at their CG opponent wherever it isn't already known.  

A CG would REALLY help ND here.  If they were IN the ACC and won a division they'd be adding #17 Pitt, #21 Wake, #23 NCST, or #26 Clemson.  All of those fall between their second (#15 UW) and third (#33 PU) best opponents so it would knock #3-#12 each down a rung which would make ND's schedule much more comparable to OkSU/OU/tOSU/Bama.  

Both ND and Cincy's top two opponents are comparable to the rest.  The weakness of their schedules is at #3 and below, particularly #3-#8 where their third, fourth, etc best opponents are substantially worse than OkSU, OU, tOSU, and Bama:
  • #3 for OkSU/OU/tOSU/Bama is 8-18:  For ND and Cincy it is #33 and #30
  • #4 for OkSU/OU/tOSU/Bama is 15-35:  For ND and Cincy it is #48 and #59
  • #5 for OkSU/OU/tOSU/Bama is 27-39:  For ND and Cincy it is #49 and #64
  • #6 for OkSU/OU/tOSU/Bama is 33-56:  For ND and Cincy it is #65 and #83
  • #7 for OkSU/OU/tOSU/Bama is 43-60:  For ND and Cincy it is #74 and #90
  • #8 for OkSU/OU/tOSU/Bama is 46-68:  For ND and Cincy it is #79 and #99
By the time we get down to #9 and below they are all playing crap opponents so it probably doesn't make any difference.  Still, ND and Cincy trail the others at both #9 and #10.  


utee94

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Re: CFP Rankings heading into Thanksgiving Weekend
« Reply #57 on: November 24, 2021, 05:26:56 PM »
I'd be willing to bet against that and, as @OrangeAfroMan says:Notre Dame's schedule is closer to Cincy's than it is to OU/OkSU, it would be ridiculously gross:

The above uses rankings from CBS.  Note also that I have assumed that each will make their CG (because if they don't we don't care) and I've taken an educated guess at their CG opponent wherever it isn't already known. 

A CG would REALLY help ND here.  If they were IN the ACC and won a division they'd be adding #17 Pitt, #21 Wake, #23 NCST, or #26 Clemson.  All of those fall between their second (#15 UW) and third (#33 PU) best opponents so it would knock #3-#12 each down a rung which would make ND's schedule much more comparable to OkSU/OU/tOSU/Bama. 

Both ND and Cincy's top two opponents are comparable to the rest.  The weakness of their schedules is at #3 and below, particularly #3-#8 where their third, fourth, etc best opponents are substantially worse than OkSU, OU, tOSU, and Bama:
  • #3 for OkSU/OU/tOSU/Bama is 8-18:  For ND and Cincy it is #33 and #30
  • #4 for OkSU/OU/tOSU/Bama is 15-35:  For ND and Cincy it is #48 and #59
  • #5 for OkSU/OU/tOSU/Bama is 27-39:  For ND and Cincy it is #49 and #64
  • #6 for OkSU/OU/tOSU/Bama is 33-56:  For ND and Cincy it is #65 and #83
  • #7 for OkSU/OU/tOSU/Bama is 43-60:  For ND and Cincy it is #74 and #90
  • #8 for OkSU/OU/tOSU/Bama is 46-68:  For ND and Cincy it is #79 and #99
By the time we get down to #9 and below they are all playing crap opponents so it probably doesn't make any difference.  Still, ND and Cincy trail the others at both #9 and #10. 



That's a whole lot of analysis.


And despite all of that, I'd still be surprised to see the committee put in a 1-loss OkState over a 1-loss Notre Dame.

I'd be willing to bet on that for sure.





BUT, it'll be a moot point, because OkState is going to do what they always do, and lose to OU.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: CFP Rankings heading into Thanksgiving Weekend
« Reply #58 on: November 24, 2021, 05:30:16 PM »
They have two games within single digits, which is fewer than Ohio State.
First point:
You are cherry picking here with "single digits" and I would strongly argue that the difference between 8 and 9 is a LOT bigger than the difference between 9 and 10 because 8 is potentially a one-score game while 9 and 10 are both two score games.  

Second point:
Again for the millionth time, Ohio State played a VASTLY better schedule so it isn't unreasonable to assume that Ohio State should have more close games EVEN IF the teams were equal.  

Using your ridiculous cherry-picked distinction, Ohio State has "single-digit" wins over:
  • #29 PSU (by 9 points which is two scores)
  • #68 UNL (again by 9 points which is two scores)
Then the Buckeyes have a single digit loss to #13 Oregon which was by a TD (ie, one score).  

What about Cincy, they have "single digit" wins over:
  • #90 Tulsa (by 8 which is one score and Tulsa had the ball at the Cincy 1 yard line with under a minute to play)
  • #99 Navy (by 7 which is one score)


Even using your framing, Cincy's two "single digit" wins are VASTLY worse than tOSU's two "single digit" wins because tOSU's came against VASTLY better teams.  

MaximumSam

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Re: CFP Rankings heading into Thanksgiving Weekend
« Reply #59 on: November 24, 2021, 05:54:15 PM »
First point:
You are cherry picking here with "single digits" and I would strongly argue that the difference between 8 and 9 is a LOT bigger than the difference between 9 and 10 because 8 is potentially a one-score game while 9 and 10 are both two score games. 

Second point:
Again for the millionth time, Ohio State played a VASTLY better schedule so it isn't unreasonable to assume that Ohio State should have more close games EVEN IF the teams were equal. 

Using your ridiculous cherry-picked distinction, Ohio State has "single-digit" wins over:
  • #29 PSU (by 9 points which is two scores)
  • #68 UNL (again by 9 points which is two scores)
Then the Buckeyes have a single digit loss to #13 Oregon which was by a TD (ie, one score). 

What about Cincy, they have "single digit" wins over:
  • #90 Tulsa (by 8 which is one score and Tulsa had the ball at the Cincy 1 yard line with under a minute to play)
  • #99 Navy (by 7 which is one score)


Even using your framing, Cincy's two "single digit" wins are VASTLY worse than tOSU's two "single digit" wins because tOSU's came against VASTLY better teams. 
Sure, but FEWER of them. And they have been dominant in MOST of their games. The idea that they have struggled against their schedule is objectively false.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: CFP Rankings heading into Thanksgiving Weekend
« Reply #60 on: November 24, 2021, 07:18:17 PM »
My left nut would be dominant in most of Cincinnati's games.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

bayareabadger

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Re: CFP Rankings heading into Thanksgiving Weekend
« Reply #61 on: November 24, 2021, 07:39:45 PM »
My left nut would be dominant in most of Cincinnati's games.
Son, I have something to tell you about your left nut, right one too.

They're more NAIA than P5 quality 

MrNubbz

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Re: CFP Rankings heading into Thanksgiving Weekend
« Reply #62 on: November 24, 2021, 07:51:35 PM »
:043:
Suburbia:Where they tear out the trees & then name streets after them.

utee94

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Re: CFP Rankings heading into Thanksgiving Weekend
« Reply #63 on: November 24, 2021, 08:33:51 PM »
:103:

Honestbuckeye

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Re: CFP Rankings heading into Thanksgiving Weekend
« Reply #64 on: November 24, 2021, 08:50:12 PM »
😂😂😂
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
-Mark Twain

 

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