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Topic: OT-Politics Thread: please TRY to keep it civil, you damned dirty apes

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utee94

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #42574 on: March 04, 2025, 01:23:51 PM »
Going back a while, I believe it was Kruschev who gave Crimea to Ukraine, because, well, why not?  Ukraine had a UN vote while part of the USSR oddly enough.  They were a kind of "affiliated state" of sorts.

When Nazi troops invaded Ukraine in 1941, many greeted them as liberators because ... Stalin (who wasn't Russian).  Some think had the Germans treated them decently they would have eagerly fought the Russians when in fact, then ended up often being partisans.  Germans viewed Slavs as slaves for some reason, maybe language.

Hitler had some pretty "grand ideas" of course, had his forces been able to secure the oil fields in the Caucusus in 1942, well, that would have probably changed the outcome.

It is said Russians are paranoid, but they keep getting invaded, over and over.
Meh, Sweden and Poland and Ukraine would say that Russia has given as good as they've gotten.
« Last Edit: March 04, 2025, 01:35:48 PM by utee94 »

Cincydawg

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #42575 on: March 04, 2025, 01:26:53 PM »
Poor Poland, they might possibly hold the record.  And Poles are very nationalistic, most in an OK way I think.  I'd like to visit sometime, I think.  Poland would be a tough nut to crack even with no NATO.

Cincydawg

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #42576 on: March 04, 2025, 01:30:59 PM »
A thing many have noted is that Trump likes to point to a strong stock market as some indication things are great.  There was a drop in early August of last year and he called it the "Kamala crash", though when it recovered he didn't credit her for it.

Well, the tariffs deal are not liked by investors, at all.  The DJIA is down around 580 at the moment, and has been showing weakness for some weeks.  (I've been selling.)  I half expect Trump to "declare victory (again) and drop the tariffs with C and M fairly soon, maybe after he can claim they did something.

OTOH, maybe investors are counting on that and it will get worse.  Taft Hartley anyone?

FearlessF

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #42577 on: March 04, 2025, 01:33:45 PM »
A)  How are they inspecting my property when they can't get in my back yard?  The better part of three of the four exterior walls are behind a fence, and they can't get back there, and if they did, I'd know about it. 

B)  How are they inspecting my property without looking inside my house and knowing what shape everything is in?  I recently got a quote from a handyman business on several little projects I haven't the time or the tools, and in some cases the know-how, to fix, totaling nearly $9000.  Seems like you'd want to know about stuff like that if you were going to assess the value of my property. 

I'm not arguing with you.....I genuinely don't know how this stuff works and need to learn more about it. 
thanks for the reminder........... my property tax is due the end of the month
I just paid the $950 for half the year
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

MikeDeTiger

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #42578 on: March 04, 2025, 01:35:44 PM »
But the rest of your post sounds like the guy who says the chick deserved to be assualted because she was dressed skanky.  No, just, no.  Russia did this. 

That's a bad analogy, a mischaracterization of my thoughts, and doesn't address the points I made, but no matter, because it's also not relevant.  

Russia did this.  Okay, I don't actually dispute that.  Putin would rather be invading Ukraine.  Okay, let's go with that too.

It does not necessarily follow that there are no possible other factors which may override his desire to absorb Ukraine, both carrots and sticks.  It does not account for why Putin under Trump 1.0 made no incursions into Ukraine for the only time in my adult life.

I don't see what's controversial--either philosophically or historically--about saying people can be trusted to act in their own best interests.  I further don't see anything controversial in believing there are circumstances the US can help bring about that makes not trying to conquer Ukraine in Putin's best interest.  Some of those circumstances probably sit well with some and would not sit well with others, and I'm sympathetic to that.  I certainly wouldn't want some of the options I can think of.  

If you're correct and there is no arrangement that can possibly stop Putin from invading Ukraine, what would you like the US to do about it?  Keep supporting Ukraine?  Halt all support and tell them good luck, sucks to be you?  Something in between?  Maybe it would help me understand where you're coming from if you give a positive action and not just a negation, or the problems with current proposals.

MikeDeTiger

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #42579 on: March 04, 2025, 01:39:08 PM »
It is said Russians are paranoid, but they keep getting invaded, over and over.

Hitler......failed to learn what Napolean and so many others should have taught him.  

Do not invade Russia in the winter.  

Cincydawg

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #42580 on: March 04, 2025, 01:42:03 PM »
Hitler and Napoleon both started their invasions on June 22.  Napoleon even took Moscow.

Hitler's forces at least survived the winter intact enough to mount a major offensive in 1942 in the South.  That one didn't end well either.

MikeDeTiger

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #42581 on: March 04, 2025, 01:44:33 PM »
A thing many have noted is that Trump likes to point to a strong stock market as some indication things are great.  There was a drop in early August of last year and he called it the "Kamala crash", though when it recovered he didn't credit her for it.

Well, the tariffs deal are not liked by investors, at all.  The DJIA is down around 580 at the moment, and has been showing weakness for some weeks.  (I've been selling.)  I half expect Trump to "declare victory (again) and drop the tariffs with C and M fairly soon, maybe after he can claim they did something.

OTOH, maybe investors are counting on that and it will get worse.  Taft Hartley anyone?

Tariffs are interesting, and seem to be divisive amongst people who study and talk about them.  I've heard arguments for and against, but the truth is it only goes so far before it gets 1) very technical, 2) so wide-reaching that it feels a bit like predicting the future (never as easy as we'd like it to be), and 3) to be ultimately an opinion on what an economist believes the counterfactual to be, when considering historical examples.  

Therefore I have to plead some amount of ignorance and say "I just don't know."  (shoutout to BRAD)

When I don't know, I generally default to Milton Friedman and Thomas Sowell, because out of the economists I've read, they make the most sense to me and defend their views the best, imo.  

Both of them are ultimately against tariffs and view them as a net negative, despite admitted good things that can come from them.  So that's my uninformed opinion.  I'm against them, because two guys I trust, rightly or wrongly, are against them. 

MikeDeTiger

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #42582 on: March 04, 2025, 01:46:17 PM »
Hitler and Napoleon both started their invasions on June 22.  Napoleon even took Moscow.

Yeah, I know, but the winter ultimately finished them off, imo.  

Maybe that saying should be modified to "Do not invade Russia unless you know you will be done fighting by the winter."  

Not as catchy, though.  

Cincydawg

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #42583 on: March 04, 2025, 01:47:36 PM »
This lends itself to your thread about what we think we know, does it not?  I don't know either.  Investors who bet on things with money don't like trade wars, at all.  When a group bets with their own money, they might be right.  Some.

Cincydawg

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #42584 on: March 04, 2025, 01:49:22 PM »
Some think the battle around Kursk in 1943 finished off the Germans, in effect.  But the two previous winters clearly drained the Wehrmacht rather badly.  But they were in condition to launch a pretty major offensive in 1943 that didn't work well at all, in summer.  Kursk gets written about A LOT and whaddya know, experts have different takes.

jgvol

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #42585 on: March 04, 2025, 01:50:02 PM »
This lends itself to your thread about what we think we know, does it not?  I don't know either.  Investors who bet on things with money don't like trade wars, at all.  When a group bets with their own money, they might be right.  Some.

My traditional, and my Roth --- not big fans.

utee94

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #42586 on: March 04, 2025, 01:53:00 PM »
There is no consensus among economic and financial scholars regarding the effects of tariffs.  As you have all noted, they are quite complicated.  There are just too many economic, financial, political, and social ramifications, to review accurately their ultimate effects.

In general though I'd say they're to be avoided if at all possible, and rather, domestic incentives to achieve the desired effects, are better for longterm economic viability.  But that's just, like, my opinion, man.

MikeDeTiger

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #42587 on: March 04, 2025, 01:56:17 PM »
This lends itself to your thread about what we think we know, does it not?  I don't know either.  Investors who bet on things with money don't like trade wars, at all.  When a group bets with their own money, they might be right.  Some.

I suppose.

Seems like he used them the first time to get Canada and Mexico to say what he wanted them to say, and when they did, he paused them for 30 days.  

Not sure what they need to say, or more likely do, now, in order to pause them again. 

But there is always the chance that Trump just loves tariffs and wants to use them as more than a bargaining tool.  Some conservative pundits have opined that, anyway. 

If it hurts the economy, then like I was telling SFBadger a while back, the Democratic party-in-shambles, doesn't necessarily need to answer the questions of their directionless, rudderless, political outfit.  Republicans will get hammered in the mid-terms, and any would-be presidential successor possibly would get hammered in 2028. 

Or it might not matter for mid-terms.  I've seen it said that usually in the conditions we find ourselves in now, the party not in power in the executive branch will take the congressional mid-terms.  I don't know if that's true, but it sounds about right.  People are going to be unsatisfied enough with something by then and do some retaliatory voting amongst the small % of people who actually swing their votes.  So maybe it doesn't matter if the economy improves, stays the same, or declines.  

 

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