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Topic: OT-Politics Thread: please TRY to keep it civil, you damned dirty apes

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bayareabadger

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #34762 on: July 19, 2024, 05:18:50 PM »

Regardless, he still has the delegates. "Democracy" says so.

Removing him is "Democracy"?

Hardly.
What is this in reference to?

Gigem

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #34763 on: July 19, 2024, 05:19:35 PM »
what mistake did he make
I didn't watch it, but reports are that he made a long, rambling speech that was anything but inspiring.  

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #34764 on: July 19, 2024, 05:26:18 PM »
I didn't watch it, but reports are that he made a long, rambling speech that was anything but inspiring. 
Hulk Hogan - high energy + bizarre
Kid Rock- high energy + bizarre
Dana White - high energy + bizarre
Trump - low and slow, meandering + bizarre
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #34765 on: July 19, 2024, 05:30:36 PM »
Did it (not necessarily Trump, but the opening acts) remind anyone of this?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNsCwg5MxP0

Honestbuckeye

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #34766 on: July 19, 2024, 05:30:50 PM »
what mistake did he make
He had an incredible opportunity.  The convention had been a rousing success by every measure. The party was as unified as it has been in years. Even the critics were admitting that.

The nation was watching, knowing this was his first speech since the bullet. His family and friends had given real examples of his humanity- including his grand children. He had a chance to give a unifying speech- focused on the future. 

He had a 3000 word speech.  60 minutes. 

he started out great.  Very unifying. 

But then he went off the tracks.  12000 words, 93 minutes.  He spent 30 minutes, off script, ad- lobbing.  9000 words.  He whined.  About how the Dems cheated.  About how he has been persecuted.  He lied, embellished and exaggerated his past accomplishments.  He called people names.  It was standard Trump. It wasn’t what so many wanted, and his opponents feared. A New, softer, more reasonable version.  He rambled. 

As several liberal critics noted, it was the first good thing that happened to the Dems in over a week.

IMHO, he just invited all of the standard criticisms they sling at him( even if much of it is false).

once the Dems choose their candidate- this goes back to a dead heat, at best.  He had the ball at the 15 yard line, a 3 point lead, and all he needed to do was down the ball and run out the clock. But instead he tried to throw a pass, and it was intercepted.  Now- the other team has the ball.

And remember- the other team will rip him to shreds ( they already are) for the GOOD things he says and does.  Thanking god for surviving the assassin.  Paying tribute to the fallen firefighter who was shot. Extending an olive branch to those who have previously supported him.  Because they too are nuts.  But he gave them legitimate ammunition.  Undecided people don’t want to hear him say that Biden is worse than the last 10 bad presidents combined. They don’t want to hear them call Nancy Pelosi crazy even if she is. They don’t want to hear him whining about how Dem used Covid to cheat in the last election.

I just think he had an amazing opportunity all set up for him, and he screwed the pooch badly.













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medinabuckeye1

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #34767 on: July 19, 2024, 05:32:43 PM »
I still think who ever the Dems pick( if not Biden), will win. 

Trump had a chance to close the door most of the way last night, but completely botched it by being, well, Trump. 
My take:

First, I have been saying since the debate that I think that Biden will NOT be the Democratic nominee.  

Second, a lot of Republican's are doing "victory laps" because a Trump win currently appears to be very likely.  

Your comment is something that a fair number of people agree with because both candidates have high negatives so as it currently stands:
  • "Generic Democrat" probably beats Trump and
  • "Generic Republican" probably beats Biden.  
However, I disagree with this sentiment for three reasons:

First, if and when Biden (or for that matter Trump) is replaced the replacement is no longer "Generic Democrat/Republican".  They become an actual person and the opposition will immediately begin working their negatives.  The most likely Democratic replacement is Kamala Harris but from what I've seen her numbers aren't any better than Biden's.  No matter who the nominee is (from either party) there WILL be things that the other side can attack so their negatives will IMMEDIATELY begin to rise as those are brought up.  

Second, my reading of the polls is (from 538 although a couple weeks out of date):
  • 225 EV's are accounted for in states where Biden leads by at least 4%.  In my view these states (and DC and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional district) are unlikely to flip to R regardless of who the nominees are so just call them 225 more-or-less locked in Blue EV's.  
  • 219 EV's are accounted for in states where Trump leads Biden by at least 4%.  In my view these states (and a couple Congressional districts) are unlikely to flip to D regardless of who the nominees are so just call them 219 more-or-less locked in Red EV's.  
  • It takes 269 to tie and 270 to win so the D needs 44 more to tie or 45 more to win
  • It takes 269 to tie and 270 to win so the R needs 50 more to tie or 51 more to win
  • Their are 94 EV's "up for grabs"
The "up for grabs" EV's are:
  • 19 PA, toss-up
  • 16 NC, Trump leads by 3.2%
  • 16 GA, Trump leads by 2.4%
  • 15 MI, Biden leads by 1.7%
  • 11 AZ, Trump leads by 2.2%
  • 10 WI, Biden leads by 0.5%
  • 6 NV, Trump leads by 1.6%
  • 1 NE 2nd, Biden leads by 3.9%

As I see it, the Democrat has a ceiling of a 319-219 win and the Republican has a ceiling of a 313-225 win.  That means that the race will be at least marginally competitive up until the last minute.  

Third, as James Carville said: "It is the economy stupid".  Based on the indicators I see, I *THINK* the economy is slowing.  If the economy slows significantly, it would be very unlikely that Biden or any other D could win.  OTOH, if the economy grows significantly, it would be very unlikely that Trump or any other Republican could win.  


That is my $0.02.  

Honestbuckeye

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #34768 on: July 19, 2024, 06:02:05 PM »
I think Harris would fare much better than Joe.  

The Dems have a solid base ( as does Trump).  But there are so many people that were hesitant because of Joe’s rapid decline.  A new candidate ( no matter how incoherent) will revive them.  And, Trump just handed them a truck full of ammo.  
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
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longhorn320

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #34769 on: July 19, 2024, 06:12:21 PM »
My take:


As I see it, the Democrat has a ceiling of a 319-219 win and the Republican has a ceiling of a 313-225 win.  That means that the race will be at least marginally competitive up until the last minute. 

Third, as James Carville said: "It is the economy stupid".  Based on the indicators I see, I *THINK* the economy is slowing.  If the economy slows significantly, it would be very unlikely that Biden or any other D could win.  OTOH, if the economy grows significantly, it would be very unlikely that Trump or any other Republican could win. 


That is my $0.02. 
Be careful with 538
538 leans left
I can find at least 3 other major pollers going in a much more rep direction
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #34770 on: July 19, 2024, 06:15:46 PM »
Yeah, the shooting/reaction/family stuff humanized Trump like never before.
The entertainers brought energy.

Trump was his own buzzkill.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

longhorn320

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #34771 on: July 19, 2024, 06:31:00 PM »
Yeah, the shooting/reaction/family stuff humanized Trump like never before.
The entertainers brought energy.

Trump was his own buzzkill.
not to worry theres still plenty of buzzers running around
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #34772 on: July 19, 2024, 07:49:57 PM »
Be careful with 538
538 leans left
I can find at least 3 other major pollers going in a much more rep direction
I know Nate Silver us a D but I think he's the kind of guy who puts professionalism as a prognosticator ahead of partisanship. 

FearlessF

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #34773 on: July 19, 2024, 08:07:21 PM »
I won't be watching the dem convention regardless

it's boring bullshit politics

just like the Rep convention with Hulk and Kid Rock

watched a few minutes of it until my brother flipped the channel

We didn't get through the Hulk bit
It's like a Michigan pep rally

ru hah  we all like Michigan
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longhorn320

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #34774 on: July 19, 2024, 08:19:32 PM »
I know Nate Silver us a D but I think he's the kind of guy who puts professionalism as a prognosticator ahead of partisanship.
not judging


take any 5 states and compare his to other polls and he comes out favoring the dems over anybody else

just use recent polls
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Hawkinole

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #34775 on: July 19, 2024, 11:50:44 PM »
My take:

First, I have been saying since the debate that I think that Biden will NOT be the Democratic nominee. 

Second, a lot of Republican's are doing "victory laps" because a Trump win currently appears to be very likely. 

Your comment is something that a fair number of people agree with because both candidates have high negatives so as it currently stands:
  • "Generic Democrat" probably beats Trump and
  • "Generic Republican" probably beats Biden. 
However, I disagree with this sentiment for three reasons:

First, if and when Biden (or for that matter Trump) is replaced the replacement is no longer "Generic Democrat/Republican".  They become an actual person and the opposition will immediately begin working their negatives.  The most likely Democratic replacement is Kamala Harris but from what I've seen her numbers aren't any better than Biden's.  No matter who the nominee is (from either party) there WILL be things that the other side can attack so their negatives will IMMEDIATELY begin to rise as those are brought up. 

*            *                *

Third, as James Carville said: "It is the economy stupid".  Based on the indicators I see, I *THINK* the economy is slowing.  If the economy slows significantly, it would be very unlikely that Biden or any other D could win.  OTOH, if the economy grows significantly, it would be very unlikely that Trump or any other Republican could win.
Well written, but I don't see that the economy is slowing, other than perhaps it is going from an inflationary economy to one without inflation (June 2024), to perhaps low inflation -- we shall see in coming months.
I don't think Biden can win, and I expect him to bow out. I would say that for Democrats, the sooner the better, although I saw some arguing tonight, then you won't have anyone at the top of the ticket for 3-weeks. I don't see that hurting. You would have a flurry of campaigners getting a lot of news coverage.
If Biden does what he should, and retires from the campaign, what you will see is increasing focus on Trump's age, inability to recognize fact vs. fiction, and lack of mental acuity -- the very same issues why the electorate wants Biden to exit. With the focus on just one candidate's mental acuity, for 2-months, and a good economy, it spells doom for Trump.
However, if Biden remains in, it spells doom for him.

 

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