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Unimpressed?

Fundamentally, 2016 was a major realignment election much like 1932.  Non-college whites specifically are MUCH more Republican than they were previously.  Will it stay that way . . .  Well that is anybody's guess.  Your comment that "Ohioans . . . love them some Trump" suggests that it is a personality thing that will disappear once Trump walks off the national stage. 

I think the change is more permanent.  The Republican VP nominee is pro-Union and pro-minimum wage among other things.  Republicans simply have to adjust to the fact that due to demographic replacement, they simply can't win without enlarging their coalition somewhere.  Trump did that in a major way.    

Thank you. This was what I was getting at, and also your inclusion of PA/MI/WI suggests some similar things might be at work there too. 

So it was more the flip to populism / protectionism that really energized the "rust belt" states? That Republicans became the party of the common lunchpail working man, while the Democrats became the party of the fancy-pants coastal elites? 

Upthread @betarhoalphadelta and @longhorn320 had a discussion around "independents" and I wanted to chime in but without re-posting Beta's extensive charts and whatnot.  

First off I want to address the definition of "Independents" because I think it is important that we all be on the same page so that we understand each other.  

A lot of people are "independents" only because they refuse to officially "join" a party.  I deal with this.  Look at @OrangeAfroMan , he has said on here that he isn't a "Democrat", he probably thinks of himself as an "independent" but I've seen enough of his posts to say that there is probably a 0.00% likelihood that he'll ever vote for a Republican for any national office.  I think that @847badgerfan said the same thing but coming at it from the opposite side.  

From a polling/analysis perspective Fro is a D.  Period, full stop.  

Nationally we (Americans) are just VERY hesitant to "join" anything.  This is a problem for service clubs, country clubs, and Political Parties, read Bowling Alone if you want to know more.  

There are precincts where 80% of the voters are "independent" but the precinct ALWAYS votes 80+% for one party.  They can call themselves "independent" all they want but if they vote D every election they are a D and if they vote R every election they are an R for polling/analysis.  

Only somewhat related, but the lack of people voting in Primaries is one of the major causes of the problems in our Country today.  

Upthread @betarhoalphadelta and @longhorn320 had a discussion around "independents" and I wanted to chime in but without re-posting Beta's extensive charts and whatnot. 

First off I want to address the definition of "Independents" because I think it is important that we all be on the same page so that we understand each other. 

A lot of people are "independents" only because they refuse to officially "join" a party.  I deal with this.  Look at @OrangeAfroMan , he has said on here that he isn't a "Democrat", he probably thinks of himself as an "independent" but I've seen enough of his posts to say that there is probably a 0.00% likelihood that he'll ever vote for a Republican for any national office.  I think that @847badgerfan said the same thing but coming at it from the opposite side. 

From a polling/analysis perspective Fro is a D.  Period, full stop. 

Nationally we (Americans) are just VERY hesitant to "join" anything.  This is a problem for service clubs, country clubs, and Political Parties, read Bowling Alone if you want to know more. 

There are precincts where 80% of the voters are "independent" but the precinct ALWAYS votes 80+% for one party.  They can call themselves "independent" all they want but if they vote D every election they are a D and if they vote R every election they are an R for polling/analysis. 

Only somewhat related, but the lack of people voting in Primaries is one of the major causes of the problems in our Country today. 

I did, and I have voted for an Independent, a Democrat, a Libertarian and many Republicans in Presidental elections.

Thank you. This was what I was getting at, and also your inclusion of PA/MI/WI suggests some similar things might be at work there too.

So it was more the flip to populism / protectionism that really energized the "rust belt" states? That Republicans became the party of the common lunchpail working man, while the Democrats became the party of the fancy-pants coastal elites?

Also I think that overly focusing on Trump is mistaken because, as I said earlier, I think he is more an effect than a cause.  

If you look at Fro's posts, his utter contempt for non-college whites is evident particularly if they are religious.  As I see it, this is relatively common among college-educated white Democrats.  Bill Clinton was the last white Democratic Presidential candidate who either didn't feel that way or was good at hiding it.  Personally, I think Bill Clinton was the best politician to serve in the WH in my lifetime.  That isn't a judgement on his character nor his ideology just his ability to practice the art of politics.  Republican's could never pin him down.  If they tried to attack him as an elite lawyer he'd have some appearance at Bubb's BBQ.  If they tried to pin him down that way, he was a Ivy League Lawyer.  He was good.  FWIW, I don't think his wife is half the politician that he is and if she were, she'd have been President, easily.  

I've also always wondered how Hillary's 2016 campaign was so colossally mismanaged.  Bill had to know that calling the guys he grew up among "deplorables" was going to have major repercussions.  Either they intentionally sidelined him or he just didn't actually want his wife to win.  

Democrats have moved away from non-college whites because they simply don't need them anymore due to changing demographics.  Republicans have moved toward them in many cases reluctantly because they can't win without them.  Trump didn't cause that.  It isn't about him as an individual it is a bigger picture thing that has been going on for a long time.  The shift looks dramatic because a lot of it happened in the 2016 election but the underlying conditions were there.  

Upthread @betarhoalphadelta and @longhorn320 had a discussion around "independents" and I wanted to chime in but without re-posting Beta's extensive charts and whatnot. 

First off I want to address the definition of "Independents" because I think it is important that we all be on the same page so that we understand each other. 

A lot of people are "independents" only because they refuse to officially "join" a party.  I deal with this.  Look at @OrangeAfroMan , he has said on here that he isn't a "Democrat", he probably thinks of himself as an "independent" but I've seen enough of his posts to say that there is probably a 0.00% likelihood that he'll ever vote for a Republican for any national office.  I think that @847badgerfan said the same thing but coming at it from the opposite side. 

From a polling/analysis perspective Fro is a D.  Period, full stop. 

Ah, but this is time-sensitive.
Up through Clinton, I was 50/50.  I even voted for W the first time (albeit for my recently deceased mom - voted how she would have) because I didn't view him as appreciably worse than Gore. 

But I saw Bush and found him to be stupid and then post-9/11 happened, which was severe, and so on and so forth and here we are in 2024.

Yes, the Rs are light years away from me now.  But I haven't moved.  They have.
So too, have the Dems.  Maybe not light years, but very, very far.

So your sentiment that I'm further away from the Rs is correct, but it's not having anything to do with me.  That was their choice, to become more and more radical. 

Ronald Reagan would despise the current GOP, and everyone here knows it.

I would say the Rs have moved away from me as well. But I don't view politics as so binary that this means I "must" be a D, because they're nowhere near me. 

So I hang out on the island of misfit toys like all the other libertarians.