As an Ohio Resident this is my non-partisan take on Vance as a candidate (not getting into positions/ideology, just ability as a campaigner):
I frankly thought Vance sucked as a candidate.
Backstory:
Vance's opponent in the 2022 Senate election was a Democratic Congressman named Tim Ryan. Ryan was elected to succeed Jim Traficant when Traficant went to JAIL for various crimes and was expelled from the HoR.
Ryan is interesting and a bit of an enigma. Early in his career he appeared to be pretty far left and was a guest on some progressive shows/podcasts. As his career progressed he either:
- Moderated his positions based on experience and age, or
- Figured out that the political winds were not favorable for an extreme progressive so he shifted to match his constituency and that of Ohio more generally in the hope of being continually re-elected and/or moving on to Statewide office.
In 2022 Vance just felt out-of-touch. That isn't to say that he WAS out of touch, I don't know. I just thought that his campaign did a TERRIBLE job at painting him as a "man of the people". Ryan, meanwhile, did a fantastic job of casting himself as a "man of the people" and intentionally ran AWAY from the far left of the Democratic Party. One of Ryan's lines in an early campaign ad was "If you want a culture warrior, I'm not your guy but if you want someone who will fight for Ohio, I am."
Early in the campaign I really thought that Tim Ryan would be Ohio's Senator. I felt that Ryan's campaign was very well run and that Vance's just looked like a mess. I think that Ryan would have won in decades past. Ohio was a purple state, arguably the purplest of States for generations. Prior to 2020 the last time Ohio had voted for the losing candidate in a POTUS Election was when Ohio (barely) went for Nixon while the country (barely) went for Kennedy in 1960. Today, Ohio is pretty solidly Republican. The state went easily for Trump in both 2016 and 2020 and is expected to do so again in 2024. Ohio was a battleground state for my entire life up through 2012 and every four years we heard TONS of POTUS Campaign ads but in 2020 there was nothing and from what I've read neither party plans to have a major presence in Ohio in 2024. The Republicans figure Ohio is safe and the Democrats don't think they can win here.
That is what doomed Ryan's campaign. IMHO, in an election in 2012 or 2002 or 1992 or 1982 he EASILY wins Ohio with a moderate Democratic message in a battleground Purple State but by 2022 Ohio simply wasn't a battleground Purple State. It was deep Red.