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Topic: OT-Politics Thread: please TRY to keep it civil, you damned dirty apes

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FearlessF

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #32620 on: June 08, 2024, 07:47:51 PM »
returns?

Isn't it a simple issue of a percentage rate of the note?
Perhaps why the fed doesn't cut interest rates

I don't hear much about the problem of not being able to finding suitors to take on more US debt

There's got to be a reason
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #32621 on: June 08, 2024, 08:00:23 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on June 08, 2024, 07:47:51 PM
returns?

Isn't it a simple issue of a percentage rate of the note?
Perhaps why the fed doesn't cut interest rates

I don't hear much about the problem of not being able to finding suitors to take on more US debt

There's got to be a reason
Yeah, it's percentage rate of the note. Which is fixed. If you bought a 10-year note 5 years ago at 1.5% and now inflation over the 2022-2024 period WAY outpaced that, you're losing value relative to purchasing power. 

The Fed interest rate is (as I understand it) the overnight fund rate, which has to do to the Fed's lending to banks. Which is a short-term thing. 

If you look at the 10-year treasury rate ( https://ycharts.com/indicators/10_year_treasury_rate ) it was well under 2% until inflation took hold in early 2022. The people who bought them prior to that are still only yielding <2% annually despite inflation far outpacing that number. 

And the question of finding people to take on US Debt is relative. Current 10-year Treasury yields are 4.43%, meaning that suitors are requiring higher returns to be willing to fund our debt than they were 3 years ago. At 4.43% I doubt they're pricing in a serious risk of default, but they're pricing in a higher risk premium due to inflationary pressures than they were 3 years ago. 
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #32622 on: June 08, 2024, 08:12:41 PM »
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FearlessF

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #32623 on: June 08, 2024, 08:28:23 PM »
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 08, 2024, 08:00:23 PM
And the question of finding people to take on US Debt is relative. Current 10-year Treasury yields are 4.43%, meaning that suitors are requiring higher returns to be willing to fund our debt than they were 3 years ago. At 4.43% I doubt they're pricing in a serious risk of default, but they're pricing in a higher risk premium due to inflationary pressures than they were 3 years ago.
I don't hear much about the problem of not being able to finding suitors to take on more US debt

There's got to be a reason
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Cincydawg

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #32624 on: June 08, 2024, 10:51:13 PM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 08, 2024, 08:12:41 PM
Yay!  Different numbers from different sources!  Yay!
I provided two credible links and can show many more. 
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MarqHusker

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #32625 on: June 08, 2024, 11:56:05 PM »
I Bonds. If you can manage the US treasury website have been nice to buy lately.  Too bad a fairly low ceiling on max purchases annually. 
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bayareabadger

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #32626 on: June 09, 2024, 12:08:12 AM »
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 07, 2024, 04:19:39 PM
I have. I spend less time looking at it in the pros, but I've watched multiple Elite 11 QBs (Danny Etling, Austin Appleby) get squandered because they were running for their lives constantly behind a porous O-line. I've watched as a coach's preferred QB (Elijah Sindelar) couldn't stay on the field ahead of David Blough because Blough was mobile enough to survive behind a porous O-line.

I'm sure someone who watches the NFL more closely can point out the areas where a QB was drafted too high, on a bad team who couldn't block for him, forced to start too early (because of the draft capital invested in him), and fell off the map because they were damaged beyond repair.



I meant in terms of NFL decision making. 

But I guess this question blends in with all sorts of other questions with QBs. Is the high bust rate because they're not protected early, or because there are on balance not that many good ones? Is it a scouting thing, or a situation where some guys take to it and others don't? Shoot, half the spread offense craze was built on making QBs have to do less thinking overall. 

Like you mention Elite 11. Danny Etling was actually not Elite 11, though he was a much better rated recruit than Appleby, who did make it. Also, it's a nice way to hype up kids, but the failure rate out of that is kinda crazy. So perhaps this says that while QBs as finished products are important, many things that give hints at how good they might be are not. (I also didn't realize Blough was Elite 11, but both he and Sindelar were similarly perfectly fine 3-star recruits)
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #32627 on: June 09, 2024, 01:02:25 AM »
Is there data showing QBs "bust" at any higher rate than other positions?  
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“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #32628 on: June 09, 2024, 07:58:38 AM »
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 08, 2024, 06:39:19 PM
Getting rich? T-bills aren't known for their amazing returns. They're known for their SAFE returns.
Yup.  A good number of investment operations like pensions, mutual funds, insurance companies, money markets, etc., are required to invest X% in US Treasuries.  That's a pretty large captive market, and they are required no matter the interest being paid.  And of course the Social Security Trust Fund is required by law to invest 100% in special Treasuries, they also have no choice, no other options.

The weird thing, to me,  e.g. how much is held by the Federal Reserve.  Everyone knows they do this, few seem to ask where they get the money.  It's a major way the Fed influences out economy, aside from setting "overnight" loan rates for banks.  The Fed is a weird creature, to me.  Some folks want them audited, I can't imagine why.
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FearlessF

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #32629 on: June 09, 2024, 08:53:16 AM »
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Cincydawg

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #32630 on: June 09, 2024, 08:58:20 AM »
There is an interesting lack of correlation between income tax rates and income tax revenue.  It's sometimes termed "Hauser's Law", though it isn't a law of course, it's a general trend.  This is nonintuitive, but holds up over the decades.  (I'm not saying tax rates have zero impact, there is some, usually, but it's quite small.)

Tax revenue primarily reflects economic activity overall, not tax rates.  And revenue from corporate taxes is relatively minor as compared with FICA and personal income tax.

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Cincydawg

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #32631 on: June 09, 2024, 09:01:57 AM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 08, 2024, 08:12:41 PM
Yay!  Different numbers from different sources!  Yay!
I'm guessing you saw some percentage based solely on which foreign countries own our debt, not the total, because the latter metric shows China owning much less than ten percent, more like 2% today.  This isn't some mystery subject to the vargaries of which site is used.  You didn't cite a link, so I'm guessing.  But, by every report, China owns only about 2% of our foreign debt.

That's quite a bit lower than 25%, which I know is a popular figure, but wrong.
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GopherRock

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #32632 on: June 09, 2024, 09:02:31 AM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 07, 2024, 04:43:18 PM
Chicago Bears. Latest is Justin Fields. But I'm not sure he is damaged beyond repair. He wasn't there long enough and I think the Bears f'd up royally.

Next up is Caleb Williams.
He is damaged. And the same people who broke him are now going to break Caleb Williams.
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bayareabadger

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #32633 on: June 09, 2024, 09:04:09 AM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 09, 2024, 01:02:25 AM
Is there data showing QBs "bust" at any higher rate than other positions? 
Hmmm, actual data, probably not. Although I’d guess the fact that it’s sort of all or nothing for the position factors in to the perception. 
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