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Topic: How would you rank these hypothetical 9-3 teams

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medinabuckeye1

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How would you rank these hypothetical 9-3 teams
« on: Today at 10:29:07 AM »
The Buckeyes are near the top of just about everybody's early preseason rankings so I *SHOULD* excited but to be honest, I'm really not.  Being top-2 or top-5 preseason was a big deal when there was no playoff, a 2-team playoff (BCS), or a 4-team playoff but with 12 teams making it, preseason rankings are more-or-less irrelevant.  

Also, in past seasons I'd have spent time obsessing over potential landmines such as:

  • vs Iowa is a week before a HUMONGOUS showdown with Oregon, could the Hawkeyes catch tOSU in a "trap game"?
  • vs Nebraska is sandwiched between showdowns in Eugene and State College, could the Cornhuskers catch tOSU in a Hangover/trap game?  
  • vs Purdue is the week after the visit to Penn State and Purdue is historically REALLY good at beating tOSU teams that they shouldn't, could this be a trap game?  
Now that we have a 12-team playoff those things don't really matter anymore.  Helmets (tOSU is) with high preseason rankings (tOSU will be) are basically guaranteed of a spot with a record of 10-2 or better.  

That brings me to the subject of this poll:
I foresee that the debate now will focus on the relative ranking of 3-loss non-Champions because all the Champions and teams with two or less losses will get in and the last few spots will be allocated among 9-3ish teams.  

Ohio State's 2024 schedule presents an interesting view of this.  Assuming that  the preseason prognostications are correct, the Buckeyes will play three VERY highly ranked teams including road games at #3 and #8.  Those, and a home game against #13 are three REALLY tough games.  After that, however, none of the other nine teams on tOSU's schedule are likely to be ranked pre-season.  

So what is better?
  • Successfully avoiding upsets against the unranked opponents but losing to all three ranked opponents, or
  • Beating all three highly ranked opponents and thus collecting three quality wins but also getting upset three times by unranked opponents, or
  • Somewhere in between?
What say you?


FearlessF

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Re: How would you rank these hypothetical 9-3 teams
« Reply #1 on: Today at 10:37:38 AM »
8-1 vs unranked, 1-2 vs top-13

the committee has shown they will treat a single loss vs an unranked foe as a fluke and it doesn't damage the resume as badly
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Cincydawg

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Re: How would you rank these hypothetical 9-3 teams
« Reply #2 on: Today at 10:42:24 AM »
7-2 with one "fluke" loss is probably better I suspect.

UGA has a similar road.  They could well finish 10-2 and have a very solid team.

Same with OSU.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: How would you rank these hypothetical 9-3 teams
« Reply #3 on: Today at 11:13:09 AM »
As for myself,  I chose option #2.

My thoughts:
Option #2, 8-1 vs unranked, 1-2 vs top-13:
I picked this because I'm willing to assume that the loss to an unranked team is a fluke and this team has shown an ability to beat playoff caliber teams.

Option #3, 7-2 vs unranked, 2-1 vs top-13:
The second loss to an unranked team is troubling but it is offset by a second quality win.

Option #1, 9-0 vs unranked, 0-3 vs top-13:
It is great for them that this team beat the teams they *should* beat but they've had three chances against playoff caliber teams and they went 0-fer. I see this as a machine-like predictable team with a very high floor but a low ceiling. 

Option #4, 6-3 vs unranked, 3-0 vs top-13:
The three quality wins are fantastic but three losses to unranked teams is more than a fluke, it is a pattern. Something is wrong with this team that causes them to just suck on their bad days. This team obviously has a high ceiling but, as I see it, their floor is very low.

Cincydawg

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Re: How would you rank these hypothetical 9-3 teams
« Reply #4 on: Today at 11:14:40 AM »
Folks usually overlook a fluke loss if balanced out with some solid wins.


FearlessF

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Re: How would you rank these hypothetical 9-3 teams
« Reply #5 on: Today at 11:20:25 AM »
in the end, 3 losses are 3 losses

probably gonna finished ranked above nearly all 4 loss teams and below most 2 loss teams

doesn't matter much
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Cincydawg

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Re: How would you rank these hypothetical 9-3 teams
« Reply #6 on: Today at 11:24:47 AM »
in the end, 3 losses are 3 losses

probably gonna finished ranked above nearly all 4 loss teams and below most 2 loss teams

doesn't matter much
It matters SOME of course.  I think the 7-2 team would get ranked above a lot of 8-1 teams that had no good wins and the one loss.

I presume we are omitting the G5 9-0 teams.

FearlessF

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Re: How would you rank these hypothetical 9-3 teams
« Reply #7 on: Today at 11:27:41 AM »
yup, matters a bit more for 1 and 2 loss teams

could make the 12-team playoff

not much for a 3-loss team
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Cincydawg

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Re: How would you rank these hypothetical 9-3 teams
« Reply #8 on: Today at 11:32:49 AM »
Yeah, I suspect 9-3 won't make a 12 team slate, but rarely, unless they are a conference champion.

There should be enough 10-2s around.  One G5 will be in it, five more conference champions, so you really have six slots available.

It's a bit odd, to me, that we easily could have a 11-2 or even 10-3 conference champ make it by beating a 12-1 CG loser who would be slotted fifth.




 

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