the goal of the bookie is to establish a line that will go 50/50 in betting not to actually forecast the outcome of a game
Thats why I like the initial line more then later lines
While that is true, there is also a tendency for them to set the line in many sporting events where they think the most likely outcome of the game would land. There's a reason they're experts in their field. Now, obviously there are things they take into account... More popular or big-market teams will tend to have more bets on their side, etc, so they may shade the line slightly in those cases to try to entice a more 50/50 split.
So when an oddsmaker in Vegas sets the line on an NFL game at, say, -8 1/2, and suddenly 90% of the bets are coming in for the underdog, it gets interest. And the line moves.
And then you have to ask yourself, who is more likely to be right? The oddsmaker, or the masses? The idea is that the oddsmaker is more likely to be right because they're the expert who does this all day, every day.
Being a cynic I've always suspected that if the casino could make the green spaces an imperceptible millimeter or two wider, they would. Thus, I always bet green and it's usually worked pretty well for me.
I'm pretty sure the Nevada Gaming Commission would have an issue with that. Trust me. I've sold products to gaming companies. Their regulatory requirements are up there with medical devices. Quite literally they're terrified of screwing up and having the Nevada Gaming Commission on their backs. Now--in other markets, maybe it's more lax. But not in Vegas.
And there is way too much reputational risk for a casino. They don't want to be caught cheating gamblers, because there are plenty of other casinos you can go to.
Their goal isn't to cheat you as a bettor... Their goal is to get as many bets as they can because the advantage they have, writ large, is more than enough to fund them and then some.
I want to be brave one year and just bet the same amount on games I'm most certain about, but the swings scare me. I have confidence I'd come out well ahead of 55% threshold easily. But the bad runs would be too stressful.
Yep. Let's say you are making 10 bets a week, at $110 each (to make the numbers easier). So each week you need $1100.
Let's assume it's week 1 of the season.
- If you break even, picking 5 right, you've won $500 but you've lost $550. You now only have $1050 available, so you need to come up with an additional $50 just to be able to make 10 bets in week 2.
- If you only win 4 games, you've won $400 but you've lost $660. So you're down from $1100 to $840. Now you need to come up with an additional $260 to make 10 bets in week 2.
- If you only win 3 games, you've won $300 but lost $770. You're now down from $1100 to $630. You need an additional $470 to make 10 bets in week 2.
Hence if you want to bet $1100 per week, you really need to start with at least $2-3K liquid to weather the bad weeks. And if you do as I did and hit at a 62.5% rate, your takeaway from those bets is only $1K at the end of the season.
That's not BAD, by any stretch. But when a couple bad weeks in a row could decimate your bankroll, it's certainly not a low-risk investment...
