I do get that... And homes IMHO are massively overvalued right now.
I think the fear is that as more and more inventory is gobbled up by corporate investors, and they don't want to sell it, that keeps the housing shortage going and supply down--potentially staving off a correction. I don't entirely believe that; I think corporate investors can be just as subject to groupthink that "it'll never go down" and they can get destroyed by a bursting bubble too.
But I think it's pretty obvious that there is a housing shortage--there simply aren't enough SFHs where people want to live, and (like it or not) Americans tend to prefer SFHs. We're not building fast enough to meet that demand.
well the normal supply of homes (for sale)doesn't just come from building. Life cycle is what typically provides homes for sale:
-first time home buyers
-followed by first move up home or time to add kids
-bigger house for the family
-now it is empty nester time
-retirement home
-not to mention the "we are moving up the income scale and can afford more" segment
Virtually all of those segments have stopped selling, which stops buying, in a big circle. roughly 50-60% of the existing residential mortgages are under 4%, so people are just staying in place. It has a negative impact on all of the segments I listed, but especially first time home buyers. It also causes more people to rent versus buy, which in turn drives up rents.
I think the most misleading thing I hear is that their is a "housing shortage" and we need to build more. While there is a small degree of validity to that, it really has little to do with home affordability. IN fact- it is the flea on the tail of the dog. Get inflation and interest rates under control, and yes, keep home building brisk, and the normal cycle and segments return. People will sell because they want to buy the next, people will buy the next so will be wanting to sell.