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Topic: OT-Politics Thread: please TRY to keep it civil, you damned dirty apes

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utee94

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #37380 on: September 25, 2024, 12:16:31 PM »
I don't know how big of an issue this really is, or if it's a hot-button that politicians like to jump on to blame anyone but themselves for what happens.

But there's a big amount of noise made here about corporations buying up single family homes to hold them as rentals...

https://calmatters.org/housing/2024/03/institutional-investors-corporate-landlords/

Again, I don't know how much of it is smoke and how much is fire, but it's one potential option explaining where the money is coming from.
I don't know, seems pretty risky to me.

I recall in the 80s when Japanese investors were buying up tons of corporate real estate in the USA.  It caused a panic in the US with fears that Japan was going to own us all in a couple of decades.  Then the bottom dropped out of the market and Japanese investors were left with a massive amount of inventory worth half what they'd paid for it.

Seems like large scale corporate investment like that is almost certain to create a bubble, and when the bubble bursts, the corporate interests are inevitably going to suffer the consequences.

That's just my hypothesis though.  There are dudes on this board that know a lot more about real estate than I do.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #37381 on: September 25, 2024, 12:23:32 PM »
I don't know, seems pretty risky to me.

I recall in the 80s when Japanese investors were buying up tons of corporate real estate in the USA.  It caused a panic in the US with fears that Japan was going to own us all in a couple of decades.  Then the bottom dropped out of the market and Japanese investors were left with a massive amount of inventory worth half what they'd paid for it.

Seems like large scale corporate investment like that is almost certain to create a bubble, and when the bubble bursts, the corporate interests are inevitably going to suffer the consequences.

That's just my hypothesis though.  There are dudes on this board that know a lot more about real estate than I do.
I agree that it's risky. 

But bear in mind that they're not buying these houses hoping for house price appreciation. They're buying them for rental income. The plan isn't to try to resell them. 

So the risk is that the market readjusts and rents fall precipitously, not that the market readjusts and home prices fall. If home prices fall they're not going to be forced to sell. In fact if rents don't drop so much but prices do, they may use that to buy more inventory...


utee94

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #37382 on: September 25, 2024, 12:27:09 PM »
Rents pretty much must drop as home prices do, otherwise landlords start losing their tenants as they become homebuyers.

So it's still a risk to the corporate investor, if the bubble bursts and rents drop below their costs, they're losing money.

Ask me if I know from experience... ~???

847badgerfan

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #37383 on: September 25, 2024, 12:38:37 PM »
Rents pretty much must drop as home prices do, otherwise landlords start losing their tenants as they become homebuyers.

So it's still a risk to the corporate investor, if the bubble bursts and rents drop below their costs, they're losing money.

Ask me if I know from experience... ~???

Me too.
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Gigem

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #37384 on: September 25, 2024, 12:44:32 PM »
This reminds me so much of how some of my "boomer" elders are so out of touch.  They still think of the world like it was in the '60's, where you could buy a house for $5,000, a car for $2K, work part time and pay for college, get a job, get a pension, get health care.  They simply don't understand what kind of world younger people are living in.  I put boomer in quotes because I mostly dislike the pigeonholing, and not all are in the same mode, but it seems more true on a broad basis.  I see stories of people having student loan debt, paying for 20 years, and owing more than they started with.  These are the kinds of things that need to be discussed in depth.  I'm overall against forgiving student loan debts, but some of this really needs looked at.  And, boomers were the ones pushing college on all the younger folks, when they didn't even really understand the game in it's present day.

A lot of boomers have a good pension, good health care, nice house, nice car, they simply can't understand why people that are younger think they way they think, but they really don't have a clue.  

  

Quote
Y'all.

Affording a small middle class home here is not at all like it was when I was starting out 20ish years ago.  I mean....like....he'll be in better shape than many, I suspect, because his starting salary stands to be above average.  For kicks, I started calculating things based on range of other jobs a kid might start out at whose parents don't put him/her through college or he/she opts not to go in debt over college.  It just.....doesn't work.  I don't know how many of his peers could expect to purchase a home in the near future.  His gf rents because her degree and new job don't even come close to affording her a mortgage.  Thing is, I know what she pays in rent, and imo it's insane....at least compared to what rent should be in my mind.  I paid less than she does IN AUSTIN for a nicer place, just 15 years ago.  Her apartment is a long way from the city and is small, and old.  And it's by far the cheapest thing she found in our area.  If she wanted to live closer to her job, or in a better apartment, she can't even afford that.  I think they'll probably get married soon after he graduates and pool their resources, but wow.  Real estate prices have far outpaced the wages.  It's just not the same for them as it was for me.  

Honestbuckeye

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #37385 on: September 25, 2024, 01:23:56 PM »
https://stocks.apple.com/A0pibbIODTTSUgMVu2iqYbQ

Some good news, bad news there.  The other good news is that refinance applications are up.  This is good in that it cascades to appraisers, Title companies and insurance in som cases, and often improves the consumer’s ( family’s) cash flow.  
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
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847badgerfan

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #37386 on: September 25, 2024, 01:28:09 PM »
https://stocks.apple.com/A0pibbIODTTSUgMVu2iqYbQ

Some good news, bad news there.  The other good news is that refinance applications are up.  This is good in that it cascades to appraisers, Title companies and insurance in som cases, and often improves the consumer’s ( family’s) cash flow. 
And land surveyors. :)

I know builders will also start up again when rates drop more. Been told that by several.
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #37387 on: September 25, 2024, 01:34:59 PM »
Rents pretty much must drop as home prices do, otherwise landlords start losing their tenants as they become homebuyers.

So it's still a risk to the corporate investor, if the bubble bursts and rents drop below their costs, they're losing money.

Ask me if I know from experience... ~???
I do get that... And homes IMHO are massively overvalued right now. 

I think the fear is that as more and more inventory is gobbled up by corporate investors, and they don't want to sell it, that keeps the housing shortage going and supply down--potentially staving off a correction. I don't entirely believe that; I think corporate investors can be just as subject to groupthink that "it'll never go down" and they can get destroyed by a bursting bubble too. 

But I think it's pretty obvious that there is a housing shortage--there simply aren't enough SFHs where people want to live, and (like it or not) Americans tend to prefer SFHs. We're not building fast enough to meet that demand. 

Honestbuckeye

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #37388 on: September 25, 2024, 01:41:36 PM »
I don't know how big of an issue this really is, or if it's a hot-button that politicians like to jump on to blame anyone but themselves for what happens.

But there's a big amount of noise made here about corporations buying up single family homes to hold them as rentals...

https://calmatters.org/housing/2024/03/institutional-investors-corporate-landlords/

Again, I don't know how much of it is smoke and how much is fire, but it's one potential option explaining where the money is coming from.
Are Big Companies Really Buying Up Single-family Homes? (2024) | Today's Homeowner (todayshomeowner.com)

Being in that industry- I can assure you it is very real and very significant.  It has slowed a bit, primarily because it is now getting more visibility and is viewed as unappealing to the public, and because the level of risk is higher.  It was at fever pitch about 18-24 months ago, but really took hold as a strategy during the pandemic. Substantially contributed to escalating home prices and rental rates..  
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
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Cincydawg

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #37389 on: September 25, 2024, 01:45:16 PM »
This reminds me so much of how some of my "boomer" elders are so out of touch.  They still think of the world like it was in the '60's, where you could buy a house for $5,000, a car for $2K, work part time and pay for college, get a job, get a pension, get health care.  They simply don't understand what kind of world younger people are living in. 
I'm a Boomer, I'd be surprised if any of "us" think that in literal terms.  "We" probably do underestimate how hard it is to "get ahead" for younger folks.

My kids fortunately are both doing well financially, not wealthy, just paying bills and putting some aside.  They are pretty sensible about money.  I don't send them any except for a birthday thing.  I know a lot of the younger 30 somethings around me have good incomes but a lot of debt and no down payment.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #37390 on: September 25, 2024, 01:51:44 PM »
Are Big Companies Really Buying Up Single-family Homes? (2024) | Today's Homeowner (todayshomeowner.com)

Being in that industry- I can assure you it is very real and very significant.  It has slowed a bit, primarily because it is now getting more visibility and is viewed as unappealing to the public, and because the level of risk is higher.  It was at fever pitch about 18-24 months ago, but really took hold as a strategy during the pandemic. Substantially contributed to escalating home prices and rental rates.. 
Thanks. Glad to hear from someone in the industry. 

What's your take on where this goes from here?

Honestbuckeye

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #37391 on: September 25, 2024, 01:53:00 PM »
I do get that... And homes IMHO are massively overvalued right now.

I think the fear is that as more and more inventory is gobbled up by corporate investors, and they don't want to sell it, that keeps the housing shortage going and supply down--potentially staving off a correction. I don't entirely believe that; I think corporate investors can be just as subject to groupthink that "it'll never go down" and they can get destroyed by a bursting bubble too.

But I think it's pretty obvious that there is a housing shortage--there simply aren't enough SFHs where people want to live, and (like it or not) Americans tend to prefer SFHs. We're not building fast enough to meet that demand.
well the normal supply of homes (for sale)doesn't just come from building.  Life cycle is what typically provides homes for sale:
-first time home buyers
-followed by first move up home or time to add kids
-bigger house for the family
-now it is empty nester time
-retirement home
-not to mention the "we are moving up the income scale and can afford more" segment

Virtually all of those segments have stopped selling, which stops buying, in a big circle.  roughly 50-60% of the existing residential mortgages are under 4%, so people are just staying in place. It has a negative impact on all of the segments I listed, but especially first time home buyers.  It also causes more people to rent versus buy, which in turn drives up rents.

I think the most misleading thing I hear is that their is a "housing shortage" and we need to build more.   While there is a small degree of validity to that, it really has little to do with home affordability.  IN fact- it is the flea on the tail of the dog. Get inflation and interest rates under control, and yes, keep home building brisk, and the normal cycle and segments return.  People will sell because they want to buy the next, people will buy the next so will be wanting to sell.   
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Cincydawg

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #37392 on: September 25, 2024, 01:55:37 PM »


According to this chart, housing was increasing in price after 2013 to 2020 at a fairly "normal" rate and then really took off after 2020.  I doubt immigration has much impact on this because I doubt many of them are buying homes or in the market.

847badgerfan

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #37393 on: September 25, 2024, 02:09:29 PM »
well the normal supply of homes (for sale)doesn't just come from building.  Life cycle is what typically provides homes for sale:
-first time home buyers
-followed by first move up home or time to add kids
-bigger house for the family
-now it is empty nester time
-retirement home
-not to mention the "we are moving up the income scale and can afford more" segment

Virtually all of those segments have stopped selling, which stops buying, in a big circle.  roughly 50-60% of the existing residential mortgages are under 4%, so people are just staying in place. It has a negative impact on all of the segments I listed, but especially first time home buyers.  It also causes more people to rent versus buy, which in turn drives up rents.

I think the most misleading thing I hear is that their is a "housing shortage" and we need to build more.  While there is a small degree of validity to that, it really has little to do with home affordability.  IN fact- it is the flea on the tail of the dog. Get inflation and interest rates under control, and yes, keep home building brisk, and the normal cycle and segments return.  People will sell because they want to buy the next, people will buy the next so will be wanting to sell. 
Exactly this.
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