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Topic: OT-Politics Thread: please TRY to keep it civil, you damned dirty apes

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bayareabadger

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #34440 on: July 16, 2024, 03:42:03 PM »
Quote from: Mdot21 on July 16, 2024, 03:35:32 PM
Gavin Newsom just signed a bill today which bans public schools in California from making rules requiring parental notification if a child identifies as transgender. Yikes. Not a great look Gavin. Especially if you have your eyes set on the Presidency.
Not sure I’m much behind that. 

Granted, I think most of that space should be free of rules and left up to judgment. Maybe it’ll be bad, maybe not. But the insistence on regulating it is not ideal, at least to me. 
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #34441 on: July 16, 2024, 03:50:35 PM »
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 16, 2024, 03:25:12 PM
There's probably some truth to that. Although it's also just an easy scapegoat to blame them rather than accept that the "true" Arizonans are simply starting to change.
Arizona's population per wiki:
  • 7.4M, 2023 est
  • 7.2M, 2020
  • 6.4M, 2010
  • 5.1M, 2000
  • 3.7M, 1990
Republican vote totals and margins in Presidential elections in AZ, 1992-2020:
  • 1992: Bush/Quayle got 572k votes and beat Clinton/Gore by ~30k
  • 1996: Dole/Kemp got 622k and LOST to Clinton/Gore by ~31k
  • 2000: Bush/Cheney got 782k and beat Gore/Liberman by ~97k
  • 2004: Bush/Cheney got 1,104k and beat Kerry/Edwards by ~210k
  • 2008: McCain/Palin got 1,230k and beat Obama/Biden by ~195k
  • 2012: Romney/Ryan got 1,234k and beat Obama/Biden by ~209k
  • 2016: Trump/Pence got 1,252k and beat Clinton/Kaine by ~97k.
  • 2020: Trump/Pence got 1,662k and LOST to Biden/Harris by 10k.
Note that the Republican total went UP every four years, even from 2008-2012 coming off of having an Arizonan on the ballot. The Republican total also went UP from their win (both nationally and in the State) in 2016 to their loss (nationally and locally) in 2020.

If existing Arizonans were changing from R to D in large numbers it would be very likely that the Republican total would drop in at least some elections.
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #34442 on: July 16, 2024, 03:56:02 PM »
Quote from: Gigem on July 16, 2024, 03:39:18 PM
So what is the Republican party selling, in your view, GopherRock? 
These days? Blind allegiance to whatever Trump says. 

Normally? Lower taxes, restraining spending, reducing the impact of gov't regulation. A favorable business environment. Depending on where/who it is, policies that conform to the Christian religion. 

Quote from: Gigem on July 16, 2024, 03:39:18 PM
And what is the democratic party selling? 
Normally? Government spending/programs/benefits, entitlements, etc. Regulations that protect us from greedy rapacious corporations trying to kill us. A favorable environment for organized labor. Pro-green and pro-diversity policies. Secular policies. 

---------------

In both cases, they rarely deliver. Except for the blind allegiance part--that one seems pretty solid right now. 
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #34443 on: July 16, 2024, 04:04:30 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on July 16, 2024, 03:50:35 PM
Arizona's population per wiki:
  • 7.4M, 2023 est
  • 7.2M, 2020
  • 6.4M, 2010
  • 5.1M, 2000
  • 3.7M, 1990
Republican vote totals and margins in Presidential elections in AZ, 1992-2020:
  • 1992: Bush/Quayle got 572k votes and beat Clinton/Gore by ~30k
  • 1996: Dole/Kemp got 622k and LOST to Clinton/Gore by ~31k
  • 2000: Bush/Cheney got 782k and beat Gore/Liberman by ~97k
  • 2004: Bush/Cheney got 1,104k and beat Kerry/Edwards by ~210k
  • 2008: McCain/Palin got 1,230k and beat Obama/Biden by ~195k
  • 2012: Romney/Ryan got 1,234k and beat Obama/Biden by ~209k
  • 2016: Trump/Pence got 1,252k and beat Clinton/Kaine by ~97k.
  • 2020: Trump/Pence got 1,662k and LOST to Biden/Harris by 10k.
Note that the Republican total went UP every four years, even from 2008-2012 coming off of having an Arizonan on the ballot. The Republican total also went UP from their win (both nationally and in the State) in 2016 to their loss (nationally and locally) in 2020.

If existing Arizonans were changing from R to D in large numbers it would be very likely that the Republican total would drop in at least some elections.

I quibble with your last point, that the Republican total would drop. If population doubled over that time, the Republican total could grow every year but still drop as a share of population. 

That said, it's interesting that the Republican total between 1992 and 2016 roughly doubled, in the same time period that the population roughly doubled. That's a pretty proportional increase. (I throw out 2020 BTW because IMHO turnout was extraordinarily high from Trump lovers and Trump haters.)

However if you look at it from a standpoint of margin of victory, it's different:



1992 is the "throw out year" there of course due to Perot. 

It certainly seems that the breakdown of the vote percentages are starting go from "solidly red" to "purple" there. 
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Mdot21

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #34444 on: July 16, 2024, 04:06:27 PM »
Quote from: bayareabadger on July 16, 2024, 03:42:03 PM
Not sure I’m much behind that.

Granted, I think most of that space should be free of rules and left up to judgment. Maybe it’ll be bad, maybe not. But the insistence on regulating it is not ideal, at least to me.
my two cents: parents 100000% have the inalienable right to know what’s going on with their kid- not be kept in the dark by a nanny state that knows better for the child than the child's you know, actual parents.

gender identity issues have no place in schools. especially not at the expense of parental rights. that is insane.
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #34445 on: July 16, 2024, 04:08:05 PM »
BTW I see that same sort of a trend if I look at Colorado, or Georgia, or Illinois. The percentage of the blue lines goes up and up and up over time. 

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Mdot21

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #34446 on: July 16, 2024, 04:25:57 PM »
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 16, 2024, 03:56:02 PM
These days? Blind allegiance to whatever Trump says.

Normally? Lower taxes, restraining spending, reducing the impact of gov't regulation. A favorable business environment. Depending on where/who it is, policies that conform to the Christian religion.
Normally? Government spending/programs/benefits, entitlements, etc. Regulations that protect us from greedy rapacious corporations trying to kill us. A favorable environment for organized labor. Pro-green and pro-diversity policies. Secular policies.

---------------

In both cases, they rarely deliver. Except for the blind allegiance part--that one seems pretty solid right now.
The fact of the matter is neither party has much of anything to sell at the moment. They pretty much agree on all of the most horrible things and have few differences on the things that actually matter. Favorable environment for organized labor? Joe Biden crushed a rail road union workers strike as President and has been no friend to the working man his entire 50 year career in politics....he didn't get the nickname "the senator from MBNA" looking out for the workin' man. 

Trump talked a great game in 2016 about "draining the swamp", taking on the broken foreign policy establishment of this country and taking on the deep state and military industrial complex and ending the pointless mindless needless costly endless forever war machine, onshoring manufacturing jobs and bringing them back to the US, fixing the broken health care system, fixing immigration, and pretty much failed to deliver on any of it. The only thing I think he actually accomplished was no new wars under his watch. Only President that can claim that in at least like 40 years. Which despite whatever one may think of him was actually a respectable and commendable accomplishment.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #34447 on: July 16, 2024, 04:30:20 PM »
Somewhere way back in this thread we were discussing the Federal Deficits and Debt and I never got around to sharing my pet solution so I'll do that now.  

There have been efforts to mandate a balanced budget by Constitutional Amendment but these have been, IMHO, misguided for at least two reasons:

  • There HAS to be a work-around.  During WWII the US ran MASSIVE deficits that peaked out at around 1/4 of GDP for 1943.  That was necessary in order to sustain the war effort.  We either had to run massive deficits or concede the pacific to the Japanese and Europe to the dictators.  
  • There are annual changes in Federal Revenues mostly due to the state of the economy.  If you strictly limited current Federal Spending to current Federal Revenues you'd end up with wild swings in Federal Spending and those swings would be precisely the opposite of what you would want.  Ie, Spending would crater during recessions which would worsen those recessions and spending would explode during booms which would expand those booms (into bubbles).  
  • Anything dollar-denominated is destined to fail because dollars change in value over time.  
  • Relatively small deficits are not really problematic and can be sustained indefinitely.  

Therefore, Medinabuckeye1's proposal would be a Constitutional Amendment that stipulated the following:
  • Some reasonably reliable group would be tasked with computing and reporting US GDP (this is already done).  
  • Said group would be further charged with calculating a 10-year rolling average GDP.  Ie, the limit for the 2025 budget would be based on the average GDP for the 10 years from 2014-2023 and the limit for the 2026 budget would be based on the average GDP for the 10 years from 2015-2024, etc.  
  • A deficit in excess of 3% of the aforementioned average would require a 3/5 majority to pass Congress.  (261 Reps, 60 Senators)
  • A deficit in excess of 4% of the aforementioned average would require a 2/3 majority to pass Congress.  (290 Reps, 67 Senators)
  • A deficit in excess of 5% of the aforementioned average would require a 3/4 majority to pass Congress.  (327 Reps, 75 Senators)
  • A deficit in excess of 6% of the aforementioned average would require a 4/5 majority.  (348 Reps, 80 Senators)
  • A deficit in excess of 7% of the aforementioned average would require a 5/6 majority.  (363 Reps, 84 Senators)
  • A deficit in excess of 8% of the aforementioned average would require a 6/7 majority.  (373 Reps, 86 Senators)
  • A deficit in excess of 9% of the aforementioned average would require a 7/8 majority.  (381 Reps, 88 Senators)
  • A deficit in excess of 10% of the aforementioned average would require a 9/10 majority.  (392 Reps, 90 Senators)

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847badgerfan

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #34448 on: July 16, 2024, 04:30:54 PM »
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/law/elon-musk-says-he-will-move-x-and-spacex-headquarters-out-of-california-dbfe0789?st=cehiu43s078ey5x&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/law/elon-musk-says-he-will-move-x-and-spacex-headquarters-out-of-california-dbfe0789?st=cehiu43s078ey5x&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
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U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

medinabuckeye1

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #34449 on: July 16, 2024, 04:31:03 PM »
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 16, 2024, 04:08:05 PM
BTW I see that same sort of a trend if I look at Colorado, or Georgia, or Illinois. The percentage of the blue lines goes up and up and up over time.
But if you looked at Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota you'd see the opposite.  
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Mdot21

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #34450 on: July 16, 2024, 04:42:07 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 16, 2024, 04:30:54 PM
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/law/elon-musk-says-he-will-move-x-and-spacex-headquarters-out-of-california-dbfe0789?st=cehiu43s078ey5x&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/law/elon-musk-says-he-will-move-x-and-spacex-headquarters-out-of-california-dbfe0789?st=cehiu43s078ey5x&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
California is the Joe Biden of the states. Insane. Incoherent. Senile. Dying. Stick a fork in ShitHole California. It's cooked.
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Gigem

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #34451 on: July 16, 2024, 04:49:49 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on July 16, 2024, 04:30:20 PM
Somewhere way back in this thread we were discussing the Federal Deficits and Debt and I never got around to sharing my pet solution so I'll do that now. 

There have been efforts to mandate a balanced budget by Constitutional Amendment but these have been, IMHO, misguided for at least two reasons:

  • There HAS to be a work-around.  During WWII the US ran MASSIVE deficits that peaked out at around 1/4 of GDP for 1943.  That was necessary in order to sustain the war effort.  We either had to run massive deficits or concede the pacific to the Japanese and Europe to the dictators. 
  • There are annual changes in Federal Revenues mostly due to the state of the economy.  If you strictly limited current Federal Spending to current Federal Revenues you'd end up with wild swings in Federal Spending and those swings would be precisely the opposite of what you would want.  Ie, Spending would crater during recessions which would worsen those recessions and spending would explode during booms which would expand those booms (into bubbles). 
  • Anything dollar-denominated is destined to fail because dollars change in value over time. 
  • Relatively small deficits are not really problematic and can be sustained indefinitely. 

Therefore, Medinabuckeye1's proposal would be a Constitutional Amendment that stipulated the following:
  • Some reasonably reliable group would be tasked with computing and reporting US GDP (this is already done). 
  • Said group would be further charged with calculating a 10-year rolling average GDP.  Ie, the limit for the 2025 budget would be based on the average GDP for the 10 years from 2014-2023 and the limit for the 2026 budget would be based on the average GDP for the 10 years from 2015-2024, etc. 
  • A deficit in excess of 3% of the aforementioned average would require a 3/5 majority to pass Congress.  (261 Reps, 60 Senators)
  • A deficit in excess of 4% of the aforementioned average would require a 2/3 majority to pass Congress.  (290 Reps, 67 Senators)
  • A deficit in excess of 5% of the aforementioned average would require a 3/4 majority to pass Congress.  (327 Reps, 75 Senators)
  • A deficit in excess of 6% of the aforementioned average would require a 4/5 majority.  (348 Reps, 80 Senators)
  • A deficit in excess of 7% of the aforementioned average would require a 5/6 majority.  (363 Reps, 84 Senators)
  • A deficit in excess of 8% of the aforementioned average would require a 6/7 majority.  (373 Reps, 86 Senators)
  • A deficit in excess of 9% of the aforementioned average would require a 7/8 majority.  (381 Reps, 88 Senators)
  • A deficit in excess of 10% of the aforementioned average would require a 9/10 majority.  (392 Reps, 90 Senators)
I like this idea.  Makes sense.  Warren Buffet has postulated that if we exceed "X" amount of GDP then the congressmen and senators that are up for election cannot run for re-election.  
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Gigem

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #34452 on: July 16, 2024, 05:16:22 PM »
Something else that has been bothering me about the shooting.....why did they tone down the headlines?  I saw headlines at first that severely understated the situation....Trump fell, loud noises heard, possible fireworks, etc.  This is from CNN and MSNBC and other major news outlets.  Anybody with half a brain knew within 1 minute that the former president had been shot at, and possibly shot.  Watching the footage you hear the pop pop, then him wince and grab his ear, and then all the commotion that followed.  I don't know how long the headlines were up, maybe only a few minutes, but it seems very weird to me that they would do that.  

I hate to do the whole conspiracy theory thing, but why try to downplay things unless you're very intentionally downplaying something that may end up being a major advantage to a presidential candidate?  From my view point they did the opposite for Biden.  Clearly his facilities have been deteriorating for years, and that has been vastly underreported.  
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Gigem

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #34453 on: July 16, 2024, 05:17:40 PM »
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