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Topic: In an even-money bet...

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: In an even-money bet...
« Reply #14 on: April 13, 2021, 10:56:03 AM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 13, 2021, 01:17:05 AM
Bama & Clempsin have won 7 of the past 10 NCs.
But what about the previous 10, ie if we had considered this question 10 years ago what would we have been looking back at?
  • 2010: Auburn
  • 2009: Bama
  • 2008: Florida
  • 2007: LSU
  • 2006: Florida
  • 2005: Texas
  • 2004: USC
  • 2003: LSU/USC
  • 2002: tOSU
  • 2001: Miami
In those 10 years there were 11 Champions due to the LSU/USC split in 2003. They were:
  • 2 LSU
  • 2 Florida
  • 2 USC
  • 1 Auburn
  • 1 Bama
  • 1 Texas
  • 1 tOSU
  • 1 Miami

LSU, UF, and USC won six of 11 from 2001-2010 but those three schools won only a combined one (LSU's in 19) from 2011-2020.

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Cincydawg

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Re: In an even-money bet...
« Reply #15 on: April 13, 2021, 11:20:48 AM »
Past performance ....
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: In an even-money bet...
« Reply #16 on: April 13, 2021, 11:24:42 AM »
What I see there is that if you have a NC HC, you have to keep him.  Plain and simple.  

You have to keep the Pete Carrolls, Urban Meyers, Butch Davises, Steve Spurriers, Nick Sabans, etc of the world if you expect to go on winning and winning.
Yes, at the risk of their becoming Les Miles or Mack Brown, etc.  And who's to say those who stagnated a bit, but weren't bad - wouldn't have had future peaks?  
.
Whether it's due to the NFL, health, or whatever, if you don't hang onto your NC HC, you're not going to continue winning NCs.  
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: In an even-money bet...
« Reply #17 on: April 13, 2021, 11:26:40 AM »
Going back another 10 years, what if we had considered this in 2001:

  • 2000: Oklahoma 
  • 1999: Florida State 
  • 1998: Tennessee 
  • 1997: Nebraska, Michigan 
  • 1996: Florida 
  • 1995: Nebraska 
  • 1994: Nebraska 
  • 1993: Florida State 
  • 1992: Bama
  • 1991: Washington, Miami
In those 10 years there were 12 Champions:
  • 3 Nebraska 
  • 2 Florida State 
  • 1 Oklahoma 
  • 1 Tennessee 
  • 1 Michigan 
  • 1 Florida 
  • 1 Bama
  • 1 Washington 
  • 1 Miami

How about ten more?
  • 1990 Colorado, GaTech
  • 1989: Miami
  • 1988 Notre Dame
  • 1987 Miami
  • 1986 Penn State 
  • 1985 Oklahoma 
  • 1984 BYU
  • 1983 Miami
  • 1982 Penn State 
  • 1981 Clemson 
11 Champions in 10 years:
  • 3 Miami
  • 2 Penn State 
  • 1 Colorado 
  • 1 GaTech
  • 1 Notre Dame 
  • 1 Oklahoma 
  • 1 BYU
  • 1 Clemson 

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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: In an even-money bet...
« Reply #18 on: April 13, 2021, 11:43:52 AM »
IMHO the CFP helps to enable dynasties. 'Bama will always get a mulligan from the committee due to their history and being in the SEC. But when you only have one poll-determined MNC, a mulligan on a loss doesn't help you jump an undefeated team. In the BCS, a mulligan on a loss doesn't help you jump TWO undefeated teams.

In the CFP, with four in the field, Bama has more cushion for a loss than in other formats, so it's more likely they'll recover from one bad game to still get a seat at the table. Given that their talent level is above everyone else, that means they can be a dynasty by continuing to win NCs in years they wouldn't have gotten an opportunity pre-CFP.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: In an even-money bet...
« Reply #19 on: April 13, 2021, 11:46:11 AM »
I thought it was gross when the voters only grew balls to move undefeated FSU down as defending NC because it was the first year of the playoff and the Noles would still be included, despite the (weak) statement sent by the voters by moving them down to third. 

It would have never happened pre-playoff.  They only became brave when there was a built-in safety net.  
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FearlessF

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Re: In an even-money bet...
« Reply #20 on: April 13, 2021, 11:56:49 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on April 13, 2021, 11:26:40 AM
Going back another 10 years, what if we had considered this in 2001:

In those 10 years there were 12 Champions:

How about ten more?
11 Champions in 10 years:

obviously, the old system was far superior 
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: In an even-money bet...
« Reply #21 on: April 13, 2021, 01:02:17 PM »
Yeah, they could honestly just rename the playoff the "Helmet Mulligan Showcase" or something.  

Second-Chance Extravaganza (to be re-named 'Third-Chance Extravaganza' once it's expanded).
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: In an even-money bet...
« Reply #22 on: April 13, 2021, 02:35:06 PM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 13, 2021, 01:02:17 PM
Yeah, they could honestly just rename the playoff the "Helmet Mulligan Showcase" or something. 

Second-Chance Extravaganza (to be re-named 'Third-Chance Extravaganza' once it's expanded).
It has definitely changed the dynamic. Pre-BCS you needed everybody ahead of you to lose. In the BCS era you needed all but one to lose. In both cases a loss was likely fatal. Now a single loss can frequently be overcome, it makes things different. 
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: In an even-money bet...
« Reply #23 on: April 13, 2021, 02:35:54 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on April 13, 2021, 02:35:06 PM
It has definitely changed the dynamic. Pre-BCS you needed everybody ahead of you to lose. In the BCS era you needed all but one to lose. In both cases a loss was likely fatal. Now a single loss can frequently be overcome if you're in the SEC, it makes things different.
FTFY...
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: In an even-money bet...
« Reply #24 on: April 13, 2021, 03:49:09 PM »
If you don't get blown out....
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: In an even-money bet...
« Reply #25 on: April 13, 2021, 04:07:41 PM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 13, 2021, 03:49:09 PM
If you don't get blown out....
It is a really odd set of issues that determine the damage that a single loss does. Factors:
  • A loss that keeps you from winning your conference is MUCH more costly than a loss that does not. Ie, don't lose your CG or a H2H game in-division to a fellow contender. This means that, for Ohio State, a loss to Rutgers would be less damaging than a loss to PSU (if that kept tOSU out of CG) or a loss to UW in the CG. I find that odd because a loss to Rutgers is "worse" in general terms.
  • A loss to a worse team is usually (but not always) worse than a loss to a good team. This makes sense but the exception does not. Consider the years when Ohio State played Oklahoma. Losing to Oklahoma can be extra costly because if they are a contender then Ohio State cannot realistically get in ahead of them. That makes perfect sense but it creates a weird situation because OU/tOSU would be better off to win the H2H and lose to a bottom-feeder than to lose to the quality opponent and beat everyone else.
  • A close loss is better than a blowout. This makes perfect sense.

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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: In an even-money bet...
« Reply #26 on: April 14, 2021, 03:49:26 AM »
That gets to the conundrum of the h2h issue, famously from 2000.
undefeated OU
.
1-loss Miami
1-loss FSU
.
1-loss Warshington
.
.
Miami beat FSU.  Warshington beat Miami.  Warshington lost to #20 Oregon.  So they were never really strongly considered.  Remember, this was BCS with computers.
FSU gets in over Miami.  
Most everyone ranks Miami and FSU over UW.  And thus, FSU's 3-pt loss to Miami was "better" than Miami's 5-pt loss to UW.  
.
.
Everyone flips out, insists the h2h winner should get the nod, and the BCS changes.  
Despite what you shared in your post.  And despite Warshington's situation.  The Huskies might as well have no existed.
Among games between Miami, FSU, and UW:
1-0 UW
1-1 Miami
0-1 FSU

Maybe there was no "right" answer in 2000.  But tweaking the BCS to side with the h2h winner almost assuredly meant the team with the worse loss would get the nod.  
Odd.
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FearlessF

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Re: In an even-money bet...
« Reply #27 on: April 14, 2021, 10:09:11 AM »
H2H is important in a single elimination tournament

otherwise, it's one game and therefore one data point
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