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Topic: In an even-money bet...

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OrangeAfroMan

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In an even-money bet...
« on: April 12, 2021, 11:32:38 AM »
Heard this on a podcast, pretty good bet.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

medinabuckeye1

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Re: In an even-money bet...
« Reply #1 on: April 12, 2021, 11:59:00 AM »
I went with the field but it was a close call.

If you said five years, I'd take Bama/Clemson for sure.

If you said 20 years, I'd take the field for sure.

At ten years, tough call.

FearlessF

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Re: In an even-money bet...
« Reply #2 on: April 12, 2021, 12:20:50 PM »
I went with the field but it was a close call.

If you said five years, I'd take Bama/Clemson for sure.

If you said 20 years, I'd take the field for sure.

At ten years, tough call.
Ed Zachery!
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: In an even-money bet...
« Reply #3 on: April 12, 2021, 12:56:55 PM »
I went with the field but it was a close call.

If you said five years, I'd take Bama/Clemson for sure.

If you said 20 years, I'd take the field for sure.

At ten years, tough call.
Exact same. Also said the field. 

Dabo is still young, but Miss Terry will probably put ol' Nick out to pasture here at some point. But even then, keeping up this level of sustained success is just NOT easy. Alabama is the top recruiting program, but Clemson is barely top 5... Too many other potential teams in there.

Of course, given that the committee will likely give Alabama and Clemson mulligans until they start losing in the CFP, they do have a built-in advantage that nobody else will get.

Cincydawg

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Re: In an even-money bet...
« Reply #4 on: April 12, 2021, 01:14:25 PM »
I figure "the field" realistically is OSU/OU/UGA/LSU plus some others that could make the playoff creditably, ND,  Florida, Texas (?), Penn State, USC (???), Wisconsin (?).  Then you could add "one year wonder" teams that catch fire, say Miami, Baylor, Washington, Oregon, Auburn ...

Those four in the first part have recruited at or near the top of the heap.  LSU and OSU won it, UGA came close.  I agree the next five years will see a lot of Clemson/Bama in the playoff but it gets murky (as noted above).  If we played this game in 2011, who might we have guessed would win the NCs?  That was the year Auburn nipped Oregon, and many figured Oregon was here to stay. 2012 had Bama beating ND after Bama edged UGA.  Then FSU won the BCS over Auburn.

So, things change (duh).  We could be too influenced by more recent history.  My guess, field wins 6 times.


medinabuckeye1

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Re: In an even-money bet...
« Reply #5 on: April 12, 2021, 05:22:41 PM »
I figure "the field" realistically is OSU/OU/UGA/LSU plus some others that could make the playoff creditably, ND,  Florida, Texas (?), Penn State, USC (???), Wisconsin (?).  Then you could add "one year wonder" teams that catch fire, say Miami, Baylor, Washington, Oregon, Auburn ...

Those four in the first part have recruited at or near the top of the heap.  LSU and OSU won it, UGA came close.  I agree the next five years will see a lot of Clemson/Bama in the playoff but it gets murky (as noted above).  If we played this game in 2011, who might we have guessed would win the NCs?  That was the year Auburn nipped Oregon, and many figured Oregon was here to stay. 2012 had Bama beating ND after Bama edged UGA.  Then FSU won the BCS over Auburn.

So, things change (duh).  We could be too influenced by more recent history.  My guess, field wins 6 times.
I was thinking the same thing. If asked this question right after UNL won three in four years from 1994-1997 I'd have been tempted to take Nebraska alone vs the field. If asked this question heading into the 2002 title game a lot of people might have taken Miami alone vs the field. If asked this question at the height of PC's USC run, a lot of people might have taken USC alone vs the field. Note, none of those three programs have won an NC since. 

Cincydawg

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Re: In an even-money bet...
« Reply #6 on: April 12, 2021, 05:25:43 PM »
Maybe by 2031, we're looking at some other program as the "Clemson du jour", on track to dominate the sport forever.

UCLA, Baylor, North Carolina, Rutg, well probably not ....

utee94

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Re: In an even-money bet...
« Reply #7 on: April 12, 2021, 05:46:41 PM »
I'm not looking 10 or 20 years out.

For now, it's tough for me to take the entire field, against those two teams.  Which is a pretty sad statement about the current state of D1A college football's competitiveness.


OrangeAfroMan

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Re: In an even-money bet...
« Reply #8 on: April 12, 2021, 05:48:43 PM »
What more could be done without singling those 2 out than scholarship reductions across the board?  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

MarqHusker

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Re: In an even-money bet...
« Reply #9 on: April 12, 2021, 10:25:12 PM »
Can we take none of the above?  As in we won't see college football in its CFP form in 20 years?

If in 10 year window, I take field.

ELA

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Re: In an even-money bet...
« Reply #10 on: April 12, 2021, 10:52:39 PM »
I was thinking the same thing. If asked this question right after UNL won three in four years from 1994-1997 I'd have been tempted to take Nebraska alone vs the field. If asked this question heading into the 2002 title game a lot of people might have taken Miami alone vs the field. If asked this question at the height of PC's USC run, a lot of people might have taken USC alone vs the field. Note, none of those three programs have won an NC since.
You are also describing a pre CFP scenario.  In a BCS era format, I'd take the field.  I think they would have enough years where they'd be out of the mix, thanks to a fluky loss.  I've seen enough OSU and Georgia to know what they are.  I'm more concerned about a perfect storm LSU team, and I have a hard time seeing 5 of them in the next ten years

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: In an even-money bet...
« Reply #11 on: April 13, 2021, 01:17:05 AM »
Bama & Clempsin have won 7 of the past 10 NCs.
Looking at how close they were to having zero.....
11 - pre-playoff:  Bama - no 'other' close wins, but was an ISU upset over OKST away from missing out on a NC (88.5% OKST wins as 17.5 pt fav)
12 - pre-playoff:  Bama - two 4-point wins vs LSU and UGA.....UGA was driving and caught a tipped pass and let time run out.  Close call.
15 - Bama - two 5-point wins vs Tenn and in the NCG vs Clemson.  Tigers decided against covering ALA TE.
16 - Clem - beat Troy by 6 early on....had six other 1-possession wins, including over Bama in NCG.  Rub-route with :01 on the clock.
17 - Bama - two 1-possesson wins vs A&M and MSU.....needed Tua magic in NCG vs UGA.  
18 - Clem - NO LOSSES, but two and four-point win over 2 unranked teams (A&M and SU), despite blowing out ND and Bama in playoff.
20 - Bama - NO LOSSES, only close call was vs Fla in SECCG (6 pts)...no other close wins.
.
I'd say all of these could have easily gone the other way, except maybe Alabama in 2020.  
.
In the years they didn't win it:
13 - pre-playoff:  Clem:  drubbed by FSU and USCe...not really close to NC shot
Bama:  got kick-sixed vs Aub after being #1 all year, lost bowl - about as close to NC near-miss as humanly possible
14 - Clem:  lost 3 times, barely ranked at end of season
Bama:  ended regular season SEC champs and #1, lost by 7 to tOSU in playoff....close game, but forgot how to defend the run
19 - Clem:  preseason #1, one-point win vs UNC and smoked everyone until classic 6-point win vs tOSU in playoff....ran into LSU buzzsaw in NCG.
Bama:  ran into LSU buzzsaw earlier, losing by 5.....lost to Aub by 3 to miss out on possible playoff inclusion.
.
Bama was thisclose in 2013 and 2014.  Both had every opportunity in 2019, but LSU was on another planet.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

MrNubbz

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Re: In an even-money bet...
« Reply #12 on: April 13, 2021, 08:56:01 AM »
 If asked this question right after UNL won three in four years from 1994-1997 
2 & 1/2 ask Mdot or Anonymous Coward - if he ever shows up
“Did I hear God call me an idiot? ”― William P. Young

FearlessF

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Re: In an even-money bet...
« Reply #13 on: April 13, 2021, 09:31:48 AM »
I'm fine with calling the Skers 97 1/2 if the M Men are fine with calling theirs 1/2

2 & 1/2 to 1/2 is better than 3 to 1
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

 

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