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Topic: In an even-money bet...

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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: In an even-money bet...
« Reply #28 on: April 14, 2021, 10:51:40 AM »
H2H is important in a single elimination tournament

otherwise, it's one game and therefore one data point
Blasphemy 20 years ago.  Probably blasphemy to most, still.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

rolltidefan

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Re: In an even-money bet...
« Reply #29 on: April 14, 2021, 11:02:06 AM »
it's both a data point and a trump card. but you have to get close enough to use that card for it to matter. both teams with 1 loss, team a beat team b, doesn't matter if team b is beating others by more than team a does and "looks" better, it was settled on field. might have even been a fluke, but too bad no mulligans. but if team a has 3 losses while team b has only the 1, then it doesn't matter. jmo

also, for original poll i picked field cause what bama has done the last decade is unprecedented and i doubt anyone, including bama, can or will replicate it.

FearlessF

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Re: In an even-money bet...
« Reply #30 on: April 14, 2021, 11:03:45 AM »
Blasphemy 20 years ago.  Probably blasphemy to most, still.
as you know, most are wrong
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: In an even-money bet...
« Reply #31 on: April 14, 2021, 11:04:51 AM »
as you know, most are wrong
No, no, that can't be it.  I merely have an irrational hatred of the masses.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

FearlessF

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Re: In an even-money bet...
« Reply #32 on: April 14, 2021, 11:08:29 AM »
most today are wrong and very obviously, those in the past were very wrong!
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

medinabuckeye1

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Re: In an even-money bet...
« Reply #33 on: April 14, 2021, 12:39:17 PM »
This is why I've always been resistant to using H2H as an end-all, be-all. 

In order to not seem like sour grapes, I'll use an example where it benefited my team:

1972:
Ohio State finished the regular season 9-1/7-1 and outscored their 10 opponents 263-129.

Michigan finished the regular season 10-1/7-1 and had outscored their 11 opponents 264-57.

Honestly, Michigan was probably the better team that year. They shutout four of their opponents and held 10 of their 11 opponents to single digits. Unfortunately for them, the one opponent that they didn't hold to single digits was Ohio State. The Buckeyes beat them 14-11 in Columbus. Note that Michigan outgained Ohio State 344-192 but chose to go for a TD and the win rather than a FG and a tie at the goal line late in the game.

Michigan's loss was obviously much better than Ohio State's 19-12 loss to MSU whom Michigan beat 10-0. 

Ohio State obviously had the better win and actually had two wins better than any by Michigan that year (Michigan and North Carolina who went undefeated in the ACC and finished the regular season 10-1 before winning their bowl). OTOH, Michigan's loss to Ohio State was a much better loss than Ohio State's loss to MSU.

Using H2H rewards quality wins but it frequently also rewards bad losses. I'm not saying that it is always wrong, just pointing out that it is not always right.

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: In an even-money bet...
« Reply #34 on: April 14, 2021, 01:13:47 PM »
Who wins the bet if it is tied 5-5 between bama/clemson and the field? 
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

FearlessF

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Re: In an even-money bet...
« Reply #35 on: April 14, 2021, 01:15:22 PM »
and what's the wager?
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: In an even-money bet...
« Reply #36 on: April 14, 2021, 02:55:29 PM »
Who wins the bet if it is tied 5-5 between bama/clemson and the field?
In normal terms that would be a push so nobody wins, nobody loses, right?
and what's the wager?
I think the original point by @OrangeAfroMan was simply to ask who you would take. I guess you could refine it to say it this way:

Assume that a casino gives you $1,000 with the caveat that you HAVE TO bet their $1,000 gift on either:
  • Bama and Clemson to win >5 NC's in the next 10 years or
  • Bama/Clemson to win <5 NC's in the next 10 years.


FearlessF

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Re: In an even-money bet...
« Reply #37 on: April 14, 2021, 03:09:24 PM »
pride in knowing I was lucky enough to pick the correct answer would be plenty of me

but, that's not much cake in the game 
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

rolltidefan

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Re: In an even-money bet...
« Reply #38 on: April 14, 2021, 03:12:40 PM »
i thought of it more as a steak bet. you win, i pay. i win, you pay.

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: In an even-money bet...
« Reply #39 on: April 14, 2021, 03:20:35 PM »
So 5-5, you are going Dutch? 
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: In an even-money bet...
« Reply #40 on: April 14, 2021, 03:22:18 PM »
I just meant it as a pick 'em type thing.  5 for either bet is a push.  
 
Which do you deem more likely?  AL/CL 6 NCs or the field with 6+ NCs
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

FearlessF

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Re: In an even-money bet...
« Reply #41 on: April 14, 2021, 03:25:53 PM »
i thought of it more as a steak bet. you win, i pay. i win, you pay.
I'll pay at this place...........


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