I figure "the field" realistically is OSU/OU/UGA/LSU plus some others that could make the playoff creditably, ND, Florida, Texas (?), Penn State, USC (???), Wisconsin (?). Then you could add "one year wonder" teams that catch fire, say Miami, Baylor, Washington, Oregon, Auburn ...
Those four in the first part have recruited at or near the top of the heap. LSU and OSU won it, UGA came close. I agree the next five years will see a lot of Clemson/Bama in the playoff but it gets murky (as noted above). If we played this game in 2011, who might we have guessed would win the NCs? That was the year Auburn nipped Oregon, and many figured Oregon was here to stay. 2012 had Bama beating ND after Bama edged UGA. Then FSU won the BCS over Auburn.
So, things change (duh). We could be too influenced by more recent history. My guess, field wins 6 times.