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I think history matters SOME to recruits, but obviously recent history matters much more, I think.  A program that has a recent record of putting guys in the NFL at your position has to be attractive.  A top recruit also evaluates the current lineup to assess whether he might get early PT.  They talk about how they mesh with the coaches, but this may be just talk in many cases.  

If I'm a top skill position player, I'm looking to get drafted in three years, and little else is going to matter to me.  The ritzy facilities are nice, the large stadium and fan enthusiasm is great, a chance to play for an NC is great, but IF somehow I could go to Kansas State and get to the NFL in good shape in 3 years, I'd do that.

I'm talking about the top level 5 star position players, in general.  How many of them went to Oregon?

No doubt flash can appeal to some of them.  These kids aren't making decisions on their own (with few exceptions).  They get advice, some good, some bad, but nearly all of it is focused on money.

Yeah, and he may well see Oregon as the best place to get to the NFL. 

That would not be an illogical conclusion on his part.  Is this the guy?

Has physical upside with a slender frame that can add weight. Can make all of the throws. Can easily throw downfield, but also chips away with shorter and intermediate throws. Father played in Pac-10 and NFL. High football IQ with incredible poise and pocket awareness. Is a pure pocket passer, who throws with timing and great anticipation. Extremely polished. Projects as multi-year Power 5 starter and as a late second-day pick/early third-day pick in the NFL draft. 

Athletic Background
Jay Butterfield is a 6-6, 180-pound Quarterback from Brentwood, Calif.

No doubt, but how often would ANY coach not generate trust with a candidate?  I guess it happens, but it's bad recruiting obviously.

I figure this is about even with the upper level programs, though a player may "hit it off" with one specific recruiter for intangible reasons.  It averages out.

Most upper level programs are about even on facilities and gloss and dudahs.  The coaches are nice to you, more or less.  Maybe you like the weather better here than there.  Maybe it's closer to home (that can be a factor of course).  And maybe they have an obvious opening at running back that you can step into NOW and they have put backs into the league often and recently at a high level.

No doubt it happens at times, I suspect recruits talk about that a lot more than it really matters though.

At times, it comes down to what effective is a coin toss.  The kid doesn't really know why he ever so slightly prefers X over Y.  If both offer a good path to the NFL, either choice is fine, all of them are good choices.  When asked to explain, they often say "I just had a great connection with the coaches there.".

And yes, at times that will be the deciding factor.  If you are an elite running back, you have 5-6-7 possible choices, all of them great choices.  If one program has an obvious SLOT for you, go there, and say you have a great connection with the RB coach.

I am thinking about Knowshon Moreno, a good college back, who was red shirted his FR year.  He didn't make a good choice, IMHO, neither did Justin Fields.

Maybe Moreno did make a good choice, he only played two years in college, so he reduced his risks.

If he's a Duck fan, that's game set and something else.

I don't think of him as an example of an elite player, though he might become one.

I don't know about Oklahoma, but OSU had like five good seasons from 1869-1936.